Wildfire in California, May 18 to 28, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1032 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...18/205 AM.

Warmer temperatures are expected this week with some locally
breezy Santa Ana winds this morning. The warmest day will be
Wednesday with slow cooling the rest of the week along with a
return of night and morning low clouds and fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...18/718 AM.

***UPDATE***

The late season Santa Ana Wind event has materialized across the
San Gabriel Mountains, with gusts in the 25-40 mph range, and a
few of the hot spots have reached 50+ mph. Winds are beginning to
pick up across the Santa Susannas, with gusts 30+ mph. There still
exists quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the Santa Anas
through the valleys and down to the Oxnard Plain today. The very
deep marine layer will battle the offshore flow push, and
northeast winds may not surface at very noticeable speeds,
especially at the coasts.

There is a concern regarding fire weather today across the San
Gabriels and Santa Susanas due to the offshore winds following a
long stretch of warm and very dry conditions. Elevated to brief
critical conditions will continue through this afternoon.

Confidence is high in a general warming and drying trend today
due to offshore influences and weak onshore gradients this
afternoon. This trend will continue through Wednesday, with weak
northeast winds expected over the mountains tomorrow.

***From Previous Discussion***

The marine layer is about 5000 ft deep and marine layer stratus
covers much of the csts and vlys of LA and VTA counties. The low
clouds should dissipate earlier than normal as the pressure grads
shift offshore. There will be a 10 mb offshore trend in the E/W
direction and this will help develop a Santa Ana wind event
despite not much in the way of actual offshore flow or upper
support. Most of the passes and canyons will have gusty NE winds
but the advisory level gusts will be confined to the mtns. Almost
all of the csts and vlys will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming today
with max temps across the csts and vlys in the 70s and lower 80s.

There will be weaker offshore flow on Tuesday but it will hinder
any attempt of the marine layer to reform with only the Long Beach
area vulnerable to morning low clouds. Any canyon winds that do
develop in the morning will be well under advisory criteria. The
warming trend will continue with 1 to 3 degrees of warming
expected across the csts; 3 to 6 degrees in he vlys and 5 to 8
further inland. The inland areas greater warming trend is due to
the lack of cool air advection that will occur today. The max
temps across the csts/vlys will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

Wednesday should be a sunny day with little or no marine layer
stratus in the morning. It will be the warmest day for the csts
and vlys as max temps there will warm another 1 to 3 degrees. Look
for mid 70s to lower 80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...18/205 AM.

Weak upper level flow will be atop of Srn CA for the xtnd period.
There will be few if any weather concerns during the period. At
the sfc there will be increasing onshore flow each day. By the
weekend there will be moderate to strong onshore flow. The marine
layer clouds will also increase in coverage and duration every
day. By the weekend there will be a strong enough onshore push to
the W that will generate gusty near advisory level gusts in the
western Antelope Vly and foothills. The increase in onshore flow
and marine layer coupled with slowly falling hgts will bring about
a 4 day cooling trend. Friday will have the most noticeable
cooling of 4 to 6 degrees. By Sunday max temps will be in the mid
60s to mid 70s across the csts and upper 70s and lower 80s in the
vlys. These max temps are 1 to 3 degrees blo normal.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1731Z.

At 1633Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z Package.
VFR conditions are expected. However, there is a moderate chance
of MVFR CIGs at KLGB and KLAX 10Z-16Z Tuesday.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in VFR
conditions through at least 06Z Tuesday. Moderate chance of MVFR
CIGs around 015 from 10Z-16Z Tuesday. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...18/729 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will linger
through tonight. For Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas
are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Seas may linger near 10 ft across the waters
beyond 5NM from shore through this morning. From this afternoon
through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
current forecast. Through Friday, winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 88-375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Rorke/BL
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...LP/MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox