A mid-level short wave trough moving across New Mexico initiated thunderstorms in central New Mexico on the afternoon of the 22nd. These storms encountered harsher conditions as they moved east into eastern New Mexico and West Texas where much drier air was present.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A mid-level short wave trough moving across New Mexico initiated thunderstorms in central New Mexico on the afternoon of the 22nd. These storms encountered harsher conditions as they moved east into eastern New Mexico and West Texas where much drier air was present. These storms produced a strong outflow boundary which generated severe thunderstorm wind gusts near Happy (Swisher County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 22, 5:03 PM CST, 4 hours 3 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 603 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 600 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the Caprock tonight into early Tuesday morning. - Storm chances return Tuesday afternoon for portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains. - Relatively cool on Wednesday before warmer weather returns for the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 In the mid/upper-levels, a semi-progressive, wavy pattern enveloped North America, with an amplified, subtropical ridge centered over the central Sierra Madre Occidental; a train of shortwave troughs pivoting across the northern CONUS; and a closed low rotating offshore SoCal. The anticyclonically-curved 250 mb jet streak arcing over the apex of the subtropical ridge was objectively analyzed at nearly 100 kt on the 12Z UA charts, with the CWA located beneath the right-exit region to this jet streak. Mid-level flow was substantially weaker, but still near 20 kt, as per neighboring RAOBs and satellite estimates. The low-level jet remained veered due to a much more expansive and stronger 850 mb ridge rotating over the Deep South relative to the convectively-contaminated pattern farther west and beneath the subtropical ridge. Over the next 24 hours, the CWA will be positioned between the inflection point of the shortwave trough digging into the central Rocky Mountains and the subtropical ridge meandering over central Mexico. As is typical with strong, cross-barrier flow, a mountain wave is present, and is visually evident by the thin, narrow band(s) of high-altitude cirrostratus advecting over W TX. The low-level jet will back by this afternoon in response to the leeward pressure falls generated by these mountain waves, which will persist through the short-term period. At the surface, winds were veered across most of the Caprock, with an east-west-oriented trough that has mixed northward into the far southern TX PH. Another diffuse surface trough was analyzed along a line from near AMA-PVW-HOB, with a weak cyclone located near Northfield on recent WTM data. The wind shift was negligible with both of these surface troughs, but differential vertical mixing was evident on WTM data, with upper 40 degree dewpoints observed near the NM state line while spiking to 60+ degrees along and east of the I-27 corridor. Cyclogenesis will continue throughout the day, with winds expected to back towards the south near dusk from the weak, isallobaric response generated by the surface low in the far southern TX PH and another low in southeastern CO. Very deep mixing of the boundary-layer is expected this afternoon, with record high temperatures forecast at LBB, or 98 degrees, which was previously set in 1977. Records will fall short in CDS; however, temperatures are expected to breach 100 degrees across most of the Rolling Plains this afternoon. Despite the presence of the weak cyclone and the attendant surface trough, convergence will be negligible and nowhere near enough to overcome the mid-level subsidence layer, which will be about 100 mb higher than the LCL (e.g., LCLs near 650 mb). Dry and hot conditions are expected area-wide through 00Z this evening. After sunset, isolated-to-widely-scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move across portions of the Caprock. A well-defined, shortwave perturbation, with a baroclinic leaf-like appearance on water-vapor imagery, was currently translating eastward over the Mogollon Rim. Moist, isentropic ascent, while plentiful across the Desert Southwest (per the 12Z RAOBs at FGZ and NYL), becomes increasingly scant along the leeward side of the southern Rocky Mountains and into W TX. This shortwave perturbation will eject over W TX after 00Z, with high-based LCL/LFCs becoming elevated following the cessation of vertical mixing. Brief downpours will be possible, with any potential for strong gusts curtailing quickly as parcels become elevated. NBM has caught onto this scenario, and PoPs were tweaked and added through 09Z Tuesday morning, with the potential for lightning waning shortly after 05Z/midnight CDT. Virga showers may linger through sunrise as the shortwave perturbation finally ejects east-northeastward into the central Great Plains. During the early morning hours Tuesday, cold-frontogenesis will be underway across eastern CO, as the aforementioned shortwave trough digs into the central Rocky Mountains and begins to eject into the western Great Plains. Convective-reinforcement of this front is also forecast to occur, which in combination with the nocturnally-cooled airmass, will accelerate its southward progression, with the front moving into the CWA prior to sunrise. A brisk, northerly breeze will accompany the passage of the front, although pressure tendencies are expected to slacken as the cold front moves southward and eventually stalls in the Permian Basin. The weakening, post-frontal fetch will result in a wide range in high temperatures Tuesday, with at least a 15 degree temperature gradient forecast from northwest-to-southeast across the CWA. Highs were adjusted to align with the recent MOS output, which reflects the cooler side of the guidance, but highs may need additional tweaking. Storm chances are set to return Tuesday afternoon, primarily across the Rolling Plains, as low-level convergence is maximized along the warm sector tongue of theta-e advecting towards the stalling front. Scattered, high-based storms, potentially in the form of loosely- organized clusters, are forecast to develop across portions of the Rolling Plains. Locally strong, to perhaps a severe-caliber wind gust or two, will be possible due to the well-mixed sub-cloud layer, with LCL/LFCs near 700 mb. Marginally-severe hail may occur within the organized clusters as the base of the trough emerges over W TX and lengthens mid-level hodographs, favoring the formation of weak, mid-level mesocyclones. The coverage of storms will become more- isolated coverage farther west onto the Caprock, and it is possible that the Caprock is bereft of any storms due to weakening theta-e advection and convergence before chances improve heading into Tuesday night. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 By sunset on Tuesday, light northeasterly surface flow will be in place across the entire forecast area in the wake of the initial cold front, with the corresponding surface trough axis progged to stretch from NE OK southwestward over the Red River and into the Permian Basin. Aloft, a sharp mid/upper level trough and associated vorticity maxima initially over CO will steadily but slowly shift eastward into the plains overnight into early Wednesday, and although flow aloft will remain nearly zonal over our area, this evolution will focus fairly strong forcing for ascent over the South Plains and Permian Basin Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Initially, this will allow scattered storms to continue over the southeastern Rolling Plains near the remnant frontal zone during the evening hours Tuesday. Later during the overnight period, most guidance indicates a secondary frontal push descending southward through the TX Panhandle which is expected to be the focus for an additional round of showers and thunderstorms which will persist through early Wednesday morning. This second round of precipitation may be more widespread than the earlier activity, aided by stronger large-scale ascent associated with the favorable location of an H5 jet streak just to our north. At this time the highest shower and storm chances overnight look to be over southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains where a few downpours are possible, with lesser rain chances and lower rain totals farther north. Rain chances quickly come to an end by late Wednesday morning as a much drier mid/upper level airmass spreads overhead, through a continued northerly breeze and suppressed sfc-500mb layer thicknesses will result in a relatively cool day with most locations only seeing highs in the 70s to low 80s on Wednesday afternoon. For the second half of this week, model consensus suggests that a weak omega blocking pattern will develop with relatively low amplitude ridging aloft present between deep troughing lingering over the eastern CONUS and a cutoff low over SoCal. Dry weather is therefore favored over our area for the rest of the work week, with the gradual eastward expansion of the ridge also resulting in a steady warm up and return to above normal temperatures by Friday and Saturday. Forecast confidence decreases thereafter as the SoCal low begins to open and drift eastward with flow aloft likely to turn southwesterly by Sunday, if not before. Predictability with these types of pattern evolutions is very low at this lead time, but this could ultimately bring low rain chances back to mainly western zones over the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Storms currently in New Mexico will move into the region late tonight but are expected to dissipate before reaching any TAF site. A cold front will move through the region beginning around sunrise Tuesday morning. This will shift winds to the north around sunrise or just after. Low CIGS will attempt to fill in from the north behind this front but are expected to remain in the Texas Panhandle and not affect any TAF site. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 TXZ021>044-231745- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the Caprock tonight into early Tuesday morning. Brief downpours will be possible. Severe weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Chances for storms return Tuesday afternoon across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains. Locally strong to perhaps a damaging wind gust or two will be possible, in addition to marginally-severe hail, primarily in the Rolling Plains. Storm chances are forecast to increase area-wide Tuesday night, with additional chances by the weekend. The overall severe weather threat remains low.
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 57 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:04 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Happy measured intermittent severe wind gusts from 2106 CST through 2113 CST. A peak wind gust of 61 mph was measured at 2106 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1285754.