Texas, 2025

Drought in Texas, September 16 to 30, 2025

September 16 to 30, 2025 · NWS EWX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

September rainfall was less than 50% of normal across most of South-Central Texas and drought conditions worsened in most counties. De Witt and Fayette Counties saw the worst change from no drought to Severe (D2) Drought category.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.

September rainfall was less than 50% of normal across most of South-Central Texas and drought conditions worsened in most counties. De Witt and Fayette Counties saw the worst change from no drought to Severe (D2) Drought category. Bastrop, Gonzales, Hays, and Travis Counties went from Abnormally Dry (D0) to D2. Guadalupe, Wilson, Caldwell, Comal, and Karnes went from Moderate (D1) Drought to D2. Bexar and Medina Counties remained in Extreme (D3) Drought and Atascosa, Frio, and Kinney stayed in D2. At the end of the month, the seven-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and upper San Antonio Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the lower Colorado, Blanco, San Marcos, lower San Antonio, and Atascosa Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) to below normal on the upper Nueces River. The Edwards Aquifer rose 0.1 feet but was 33.4 feet below normal. Medina Lake dropped 0.9 feet and was 81.5 feet below conservation elevation. Lake Travis dropped 2.2 feet and was 9.7 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.8 feet and was 17.7 feet below normal. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Fayette, Medina, Frio, Gonzales, Guadalupe, and Travis had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 16, 4:46 AM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Above normal temperatures through the week.
  • Low rain chances return for the weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 16, 4:46 AM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
546 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through the week.

- Low rain chances return for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
An upper level ridge is over Texas this morning with weak
northwesterly flow. High pressure in the lower levels is
producing weak southeasterly winds. The airmass over South-
Central Texas is warm and moist with temperatures in the 70s and
dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s. The upper ridge will
remain dominant in the short term. This will continue to
suppress convection keeping the weather dry today and Wednesday.
Light southeasterly winds will reinforce the low level airmass.
High temperatures will continue to be above normal, and similar
to the last couple of days, today and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
Thursday a surge of moist air up the Rio Grande may generate
isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Thursday night an upper trough will move into the plains and
start to erode the ridge over the south. This trough will move
slowly through the middle of the country pushing the ridge to
the south. There may be enough lift to generate showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon Friday through Sunday. Sunday night
into Monday models are hinting at a cold front possibly moving
through our CWA, but have not been consistent from run to run.
Despite these differences the blended solution shows chances for
showers and thunderstorms with a peak during Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
VFR flying conditions prevail today through Wednesday with FEW
MVFR level clouds late night into morning hours. Cannot rule out
an ISOLD afternoon SHRA, though PROBs are too low regarding
impacts to the sites to mention. S to SE winds of 7 to 14 KTs
prevail with light and VRBL overnight into early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  95  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  95  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  95  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            68  90  69  90 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  93  73  93 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             68  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  95  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  94  69  94 /   0  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  93  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...04

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Guadalupe

When
September 16, 6:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Guadalupe forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
29.583, -97.949 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

September rainfall was less than 50% of normal across most of South-Central Texas and drought conditions worsened in most counties. De Witt and Fayette Counties saw the worst change from no drought to Severe (D2) Drought category. Bastrop, Gonzales, Hays, and Travis Counties went from Abnormally Dry (D0) to D2. Guadalupe, Wilson, Caldwell, Comal, and Karnes went from Moderate (D1) Drought to D2. Bexar and Medina Counties remained in Extreme (D3) Drought and Atascosa, Frio, and Kinney stayed in D2. At the end of the month, the seven-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and upper San Antonio Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the lower Colorado, Blanco, San Marcos, lower San Antonio, and Atascosa Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) to below normal on the upper Nueces River. The Edwards Aquifer rose 0.1 feet but was 33.4 feet below normal. Medina Lake dropped 0.9 feet and was 81.5 feet below conservation elevation. Lake Travis dropped 2.2 feet and was 9.7 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.8 feet and was 17.7 feet below normal. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Fayette, Medina, Frio, Gonzales, Guadalupe, and Travis had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

Drought, Wilson

When
September 16, 6:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Wilson forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
29.174, -98.087 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

September rainfall was less than 50% of normal across most of South-Central Texas and drought conditions worsened in most counties. De Witt and Fayette Counties saw the worst change from no drought to Severe (D2) Drought category. Bastrop, Gonzales, Hays, and Travis Counties went from Abnormally Dry (D0) to D2. Guadalupe, Wilson, Caldwell, Comal, and Karnes went from Moderate (D1) Drought to D2. Bexar and Medina Counties remained in Extreme (D3) Drought and Atascosa, Frio, and Kinney stayed in D2. At the end of the month, the seven-day average streamflow was much below (<10%) normal on the upper Colorado, lower Guadalupe, Medina, and upper San Antonio Rivers; below (10%-24%) normal on the lower Colorado, Blanco, San Marcos, lower San Antonio, and Atascosa Rivers; and normal (25%-75%) to below normal on the upper Nueces River. The Edwards Aquifer rose 0.1 feet but was 33.4 feet below normal. Medina Lake dropped 0.9 feet and was 81.5 feet below conservation elevation. Lake Travis dropped 2.2 feet and was 9.7 feet below normal. Canyon Lake dropped 0.8 feet and was 17.7 feet below normal. Most water providers encouraged conservation while San Antonio and Universal City imposed stage 3 restrictions and New Braunfels and Austin had stage 2. Of the counties in D2 or worse drought, Atascosa, Bastrop, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, De Witt, Fayette, Medina, Frio, Gonzales, Guadalupe, and Travis had outdoor burn bans in effect at the end of the month.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1294858, 1294859.