Texas, 2025Drought in Texas, September 1 to 30, 2025
September 1 to 30, 2025 · NWS CRP · 3 events in 3 counties and zones
Dry, hot, and breezy conditions persisted across much of the region, with only scattered light rainfall that offered little relief to parched soils. Topsoil and subsoil moisture remained critically short, and surface water levels stayed extremely low.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Dry, hot, and breezy conditions persisted across much of the region, with only scattered light rainfall that offered little relief to parched soils. Topsoil and subsoil moisture remained critically short, and surface water levels stayed extremely low. While cotton and sesame harvests produced above-average yields, grain sorghum and corn yields were mostly below average due to lack of moisture. Pasture and rangeland conditions continued to deteriorate under the heat, forcing ranchers to increase culling, sell lighter calves, and rely heavily on costly supplemental feed and hay. Irrigation was necessary to sustain citrus, peanuts, and vegetable crops, but limited rainfall left forage and turf production slowing, with wildfire risks rising in ungrazed areas. Despite strong livestock and wildlife conditions overall, the persistent dryness and high demand for feed underscored the ongoing drought stress across agriculture and natural resources.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 11:47 PM CST, 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025
- Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms today, continuing into Tuesday.
- WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 11:47 PM CST, 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1247 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025
- Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms today,
continuing into Tuesday.
- WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX
through tonight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be in the
cards today, aided by forecast PWATs near 2 inches, the stalling
of a weak frontal boundary, and periodic mid-level shortwaves
passing overhead and providing additional lift. Similar to
yesterday, storms will continue to focus along and east of the
Coastal Plains through tonight, though some convection could
extend farther west into the Brush Country today based on current
CAM guidance. Current guidance is also unfortunately still split
on the evolution of available moisture this far south.
Additionally, CRP sounding PWATs have been measuring slightly
lower than the model PWATs. NBM PoPs are still coming in too high
for my liking given all this uncertainty, so lowered them a bit
this forecast package. Rain chances do remain highest across the
Coastal Plains (40-60%) and lower farther inland (20-40%).
Given the forecast moisture and slow storm motions, localized
flash flooding will be possible, especially in low-lying and poor
drainage areas. WPC continues to highlight a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across South Texas today and
tonight. While today's rainfall totals will generally range
between 0.25-0.50 inches as indicated by ensemble 50th percentile
24-hour QPF guidance, localized pockets of higher totals are
possible where storms repeatedly move over the same areas.
Rain chances diminish late on Tuesday as the aforementioned
boundary drifts southward and drier air filters into the region
from the north. From midweek onward, a return to hotter and drier
conditions is expected with highs climbing back into the mid-90s
near the coast and near 100 inland by Wednesday and Thursday.
Heat safety will once again become the primary concern through
late week. There is some model guidance that suggests that another
disturbance may try and move through the region this weekend,
bringing with it additional low to medium chances (30-40%) for
rain. However, this is almost a week from now, and more time will
be needed to continue to monitor model trends in order to refine
this forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025
Lower confidence aviation forecast than is typical with questions in
when convection will occur for all sites. Guidance is all over the
place with timing and location. Between 10Z Monday Through 00Z
Tuesday, can't definitively rule out showers/storms for any site,
but have indicated the most likely scenario in current TAFs. Most
guidance suggests dry conditions Monday evening into the nighttime.
While mainly VFR conditions are expected, MVFR CIGS and VIS would be
possible in and around showers/storms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025
Light to gentle (BF 2-3) east-southeast winds this afternoon and
evening will become gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) north-northeast winds
tonight through Wednesday afternoon. A medium (40-60%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening through
Tuesday before chances diminish through Tuesday night. Winds will
return to onshore flow late Wednesday/early Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 92 76 93 75 / 50 40 30 0
Victoria 91 72 95 72 / 40 20 20 0
Laredo 98 77 98 75 / 40 50 30 10
Alice 94 75 96 72 / 40 40 30 0
Rockport 90 77 93 77 / 50 40 30 10
Cotulla 93 75 98 74 / 50 30 20 0
Kingsville 94 75 94 72 / 50 40 40 0
Navy Corpus 89 80 90 80 / 60 40 40 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...PH/83
Drought, La Salle
- When
- September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
- Where
- La Salle forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 28.345, -99.100 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Continued D2 drought over eastern La Salle.
Drought, McMullen
- When
- September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
- Where
- McMullen forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 28.353, -98.568 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Drought, Live Oak
- When
- September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
- Where
- Live Oak forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 28.351, -98.125 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Heat in Nevada, September 1 to 2, 20252 deaths · 1 event
- Wildfire in Washington, September 1 to 30, 2025$78 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Washington, September 1 to 30, 2025$56 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Colorado, September 1 to 2, 2025$40 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Washington, September 1 to 14, 2025$33 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Washington, September 1 to 27, 2025$24 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Washington, September 1 to 28, 2025$19 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Washington, September 1 to 28, 2025$18 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Idaho, September 1 to 2, 2025$18 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Colorado, September 1 to 11, 2025$15 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Idaho, September 1 to 30, 2025$3.4 million · 1 event
- Wildfire in Washington, September 1 to 30, 2025$540,000 · 1 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1288668, 1288669, 1288670.