Texas, 2025

Drought in Texas, September 1 to 30, 2025

September 1 to 30, 2025 · NWS CRP · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

Dry, hot, and breezy conditions persisted across much of the region, with only scattered light rainfall that offered little relief to parched soils. Topsoil and subsoil moisture remained critically short, and surface water levels stayed extremely low.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.

Dry, hot, and breezy conditions persisted across much of the region, with only scattered light rainfall that offered little relief to parched soils. Topsoil and subsoil moisture remained critically short, and surface water levels stayed extremely low. While cotton and sesame harvests produced above-average yields, grain sorghum and corn yields were mostly below average due to lack of moisture. Pasture and rangeland conditions continued to deteriorate under the heat, forcing ranchers to increase culling, sell lighter calves, and rely heavily on costly supplemental feed and hay. Irrigation was necessary to sustain citrus, peanuts, and vegetable crops, but limited rainfall left forage and turf production slowing, with wildfire risks rising in ungrazed areas. Despite strong livestock and wildlife conditions overall, the persistent dryness and high demand for feed underscored the ongoing drought stress across agriculture and natural resources.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 11:47 PM CST, 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Updated at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025
  • Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms today, continuing into Tuesday.
  • WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 11:47 PM CST, 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1247 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

- Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms today,
  continuing into Tuesday.

- WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX
  through tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be in the
cards today, aided by forecast PWATs near 2 inches, the stalling
of a weak frontal boundary, and periodic mid-level shortwaves
passing overhead and providing additional lift. Similar to
yesterday, storms will continue to focus along and east of the
Coastal Plains through tonight, though some convection could
extend farther west into the Brush Country today based on current
CAM guidance. Current guidance is also unfortunately still split
on the evolution of available moisture this far south.
Additionally, CRP sounding PWATs have been measuring slightly
lower than the model PWATs. NBM PoPs are still coming in too high
for my liking given all this uncertainty, so lowered them a bit
this forecast package. Rain chances do remain highest across the
Coastal Plains (40-60%) and lower farther inland (20-40%).

Given the forecast moisture and slow storm motions, localized
flash flooding will be possible, especially in low-lying and poor
drainage areas. WPC continues to highlight a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across South Texas today and
tonight. While today's rainfall totals will generally range
between 0.25-0.50 inches as indicated by ensemble 50th percentile
24-hour QPF guidance, localized pockets of higher totals are
possible where storms repeatedly move over the same areas.

Rain chances diminish late on Tuesday as the aforementioned
boundary drifts southward and drier air filters into the region
from the north. From midweek onward, a return to hotter and drier
conditions is expected with highs climbing back into the mid-90s
near the coast and near 100 inland by Wednesday and Thursday.
Heat safety will once again become the primary concern through
late week. There is some model guidance that suggests that another
disturbance may try and move through the region this weekend,
bringing with it additional low to medium chances (30-40%) for
rain. However, this is almost a week from now, and more time will
be needed to continue to monitor model trends in order to refine
this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Lower confidence aviation forecast than is typical with questions in
when convection will occur for all sites. Guidance is all over the
place with timing and location. Between 10Z Monday Through 00Z
Tuesday, can't definitively rule out showers/storms for any site,
but have indicated the most likely scenario in current TAFs. Most
guidance suggests dry conditions Monday evening into the nighttime.
While mainly VFR conditions are expected, MVFR CIGS and VIS would be
possible in and around showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Light to gentle (BF 2-3) east-southeast winds this afternoon and
evening will become gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) north-northeast winds
tonight through Wednesday afternoon. A medium (40-60%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening through
Tuesday before chances diminish through Tuesday night. Winds will
return to onshore flow late Wednesday/early Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  76  93  75 /  50  40  30   0
Victoria          91  72  95  72 /  40  20  20   0
Laredo            98  77  98  75 /  40  50  30  10
Alice             94  75  96  72 /  40  40  30   0
Rockport          90  77  93  77 /  50  40  30  10
Cotulla           93  75  98  74 /  50  30  20   0
Kingsville        94  75  94  72 /  50  40  40   0
Navy Corpus       89  80  90  80 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...PH/83

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, La Salle

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
La Salle forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.345, -99.100 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Continued D2 drought over eastern La Salle.

Drought, McMullen

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
McMullen forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.353, -98.568 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Continued D3 and D2.

Drought, Live Oak

When
September 1, 12:00 AM CST to September 30, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Live Oak forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
28.351, -98.125 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Continued D2.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1288668, 1288669, 1288670.