Flash Flooding in Texas, May 6, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
204 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances and heavy rain ending this morning, then
  stubborn low clouds and patchy fog through midday.

- A few thunderstorms developing on the Caprock later this
  afternoon and evening.

 - Low storm chances linger into Wednesday and diminish Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The strongest axis of ascent was finally plowing east and out of New
Mexico at 1 AM ahead of a negatively-tilted upper low farther west
near Gallup. Widespread showers and storms accompanying this lift
are on track to engulf the forecast area in the coming hours before
sweeping N-NE toward daybreak following a shortwave trough. Although
we've managed to avoid flooding problems through 1 AM, this could
change as heavier rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour expand in
coverage. Provided this heaviest rain departs around sunrise, we may
end the Flood Watch ahead of schedule.

After the early A.M. rain, the next forecast challenge concerns
stubborn stratus and some fog thanks to a delayed arrival of drier
westerly surface winds accompanying an occluded front. With moist
easterly upslope flow persisting all morning and perhaps even all
day in our northeastern counties, have weighted this forecast more
toward the pessimistic models that keep highs cooler in most areas.
Given this cooler and more stable scenario today, the prospects for
adequate destabilization and diurnally-driven storms south of the
upper low later today are looking more iffy. Opted to keep a low
mention of late-day showers and storms particularly across our
northern row of counties nearest the upper low tracking east along I-
40 before these dwindle later this evening. Lows tonight will be
mildest off the Caprock where a shield of stratus is most likely to
loiter. A minority of models suggest some radiational fog developing
along the edge of this stratus overnight, but this will be revisited
in later forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The omega blocking pattern should start to break down by Wednesday
as the upper pattern moves east. The secondary upper low from the
omega block should track over the High Plains early Wednesday where
it will stall through Thursday. Chances of isolated showers and
thunderstorms return Wednesday and Thursday afternoon for the far
southern Texas Panhandle and areas off the Caprock with the
placement of the upper low as well as a weak cold front pushing
through the region Wednesday. Conditions dry out towards the end of
the week as an upper ridge develops over the western CONUS and moves
east over the Rockies by the weekend bringing northerly winds aloft.
Temperatures through the rest of the week remain below seasonal
normals with highs in the 60s and 70s however, are expected to warm
beginning of next week as the upper ridge continues to amplify
towards our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

IFR with occasional breaks to MVFR will continue through the
overnight with an influx of TSRA spreading north. TS should clear
LBB and PVW by daybreak, if not sooner, yet low CIGs with drizzle
and fog at times are likely to hold on until early/mid afternoon
at LBB and for much longer at PVW and especially CDS. Could see
some late-day SHRA and/or TS from PVW-CDS as an upper low passes
nearby. Severe weather chances continue to look low for now.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon CDT today for TXZ021>044.

&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
209 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

TXZ021>044-070715-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
209 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the forecast area until
noon today. Showers and storms will taper in coverage this morning.
If enough clearing develops this afternoon, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible mainly on the Caprock along with a
threat for strong wind gusts, small hail and brief downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances linger through Thursday, although severe
weather is unlikely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.