An upper level low pressure system over the Desert Southwest shifted east into the Intermountain West on May 5th, inducing surface low development over West Texas. Large scale forcing ahead of this low resulted in the development of a mesoscale convective complex (MCS) which spread east across much of Northcentral Texas, although a weakening trend began as it was entering East Texas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.
An upper level low pressure system over the Desert Southwest shifted east into the Intermountain West on May 5th, inducing surface low development over West Texas. Large scale forcing ahead of this low resulted in the development of a mesoscale convective complex (MCS) which spread east across much of Northcentral Texas, although a weakening trend began as it was entering East Texas. However, the storms remained severe as they entered Cherokee County, with damaging winds downing multiple trees north of Cuney on the eastern shore of Lake Palestine before weakening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 5, 11:25 AM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1225 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Temperatures have warmed quickly across the area so far this
morning, but increasing mid and high clouds from convection over
North Texas will spread over the area after noon, which should
slow the rate of warming. Most of the showers and storms in Texas
are just now approaching or cross the Interstate 35 corridor. I'm
still uncertain about eastward extent of this activity into
our East Texas counties prior to 00z this evening. For now, I've
maintained this afternoon's PoP grids, but an additional update
may be needed later this afternoon depending on the progress of
the precip.
CN
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon May 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain returns by this afternoon across Deep East Texas,
continuing eastward overnight.
- Dangerous flash flooding will be the primary life-threatening
hazard from heavy rain on Tuesday (severe thunderstorms will be
likely as well).
- Temperatures will be moderated by clouds/rain to near-normal for
this time of the year.
Easterly surface winds will return in earnest today ahead of a
warm frontal boundary over West Texas and general ridging over the
Eastern US. The approach of this boundary will set the stage for
heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms as PWAT values reach
2 inches (approaching 90th percentile for this time of the year)
through Tuesday. Any thunderstorms that develop in East Texas
could be severe with the damaging and large hail. With any
damaging winds, trees with waterlogged root systems may be more
susceptible to being blown over. An areawide Flood Watch has been
issued as a result. Temperature maximums/minimums will remain
near or just above normal (80s and 60s respectively). /16/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Wrap-around troughing, in combination with the attendant frontal
boundary over parts of the Gulf Coast, will keep active weather in
place through most of the rest of the week. An additional 1-2
inches of rainfall is likely (especially in southern zones) on top
of wet soils through Thursday. Drier northwesterly flow is
expected to return by this weekend, keeping temperatures near
normal for this time of the year. /16/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
For the 05/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue through the
afternoon across area airspace, with a noticeable increase in mid
to high level clouds over east Texas. CIGs will trend downward to
lower VFR through the evening and overnight hours, followed by
MVFR and IFR increasing towards daybreak and into tomorrow
afternoon ahead of widespread rainfall. Showers look to begin at
east Texas terminals by midnight, spreading north and east towards
06/12Z and continuing through the day tomorrow. Southeast winds
will become light overnight, picking up to speeds of 10 to 15 kts
tomorrow and adopting a more easterly orientation.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time through tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 62 72 66 82 / 30 100 90 30
MLU 60 75 64 79 / 10 90 100 60
DEQ 55 68 58 78 / 20 100 70 20
TXK 59 70 61 80 / 20 100 80 20
ELD 56 73 59 79 / 20 100 100 40
TYR 62 72 65 81 / 50 100 50 20
GGG 61 72 63 81 / 50 100 70 30
LFK 63 77 66 83 / 50 100 80 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
OKZ077.
TX...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...26The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 155 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:35 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Scattered trees were blown down on County Road 3504 on the east shore of Lake Palestine.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1261827.