Scattered thunderstorms developed in eastern New Mexico on the afternoon of the fourth in advance of a large upper level storm system in the southwestern United States. Strong atmospheric instability in eastern New Mexico quickly dropped off in West Texas with a lack of rich low level moisture.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed in eastern New Mexico on the afternoon of the fourth in advance of a large upper level storm system in the southwestern United States. Strong atmospheric instability in eastern New Mexico quickly dropped off in West Texas with a lack of rich low level moisture. However, one thunderstorm was able to be maintained as it crossed into Yoakum County producing large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 4, 5:03 PM CST, 47 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 603 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move into the western South Plains this evening. Some of these storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. - Severe thunderstorms will again be possible Monday afternoon across the southwestern South Plains. - Widespread heavy rain and flooding is likely Monday evening and overnight. - Thence, cool all week with diminishing chances for showers and storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 A number of forecast issues will be in play over the next 36 hours or so. The first will be the potential for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. An amplifying upper ridge over the area today will continue to shift eastward late this afternoon into the evening hours. An upper level low has closed off over central California early this morning and is currently located over southern California. This low will slowly move eastward into southwestern Arizona this evening. As the system slowly moves eastward, mid and upper level winds will begin to increase with broad large scale ascent spreading overhead. Most upper level wind divergence will be located over New Mexico but will spill over the western South Plains late this afternoon into the evening. Return flow out of the southeast today has resulted in breezy winds out of the southeast which has resulted in upslope convection already forming in eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Moisture return has been fairly poor in advance of the upper level system. However, a theta-e ridge has surged up the Rio Grande Valley into eastern New Mexico today. Mixed layer instability values late this afternoon will peak around 500- 1000 J/kg near the Texas/New Mexico state line within this richer low level theta-e air. Mid level lapse rates will not be terribly impressive with values on the order of 6-7 C/km. The instability will drop off quickly into the Texas side with the decrease of available moisture. Deep layer shear will continue to increase this afternoon into early evening as the mid and upper level winds ramp up ahead of the upper level system. The highest threat for any severe weather will be across the western and southwestern South Plains with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. There is a non-zero tornado threat early this evening as the low level jet ramps up but will be limited to areas near the Texas/New Mexico state line. The next forecast issue will be the potential for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday morning. The increase in the low level jet will greatly increase the warm advection in the form of moist isentropic ascent. An expanding of showers and thunder can be expected after midnight tonight as the moisture improves through the night. Elevated instability will greatly increase during the early morning hours on Monday due to the strong warm air advection. Lifting elevated parcels will yield greater than 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Therefore, embedded thunder within the more widespread rain showers will be likely. This will lead into the final forecast issue with the stronger potential for severe storms Monday afternoon. Upper level flow will become increasingly meridional during the day on Monday as the upper level low slowly meanders across Arizona. The bulk of the large scale ascent will not arrive until after 00Z but will be increasing through the daytime with the increase in mid and upper level winds. Lift through the afternoon will increase first across Far West Texas then into southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin. A dryline will strengthen across eastern New Mexico southward into the Permian Basin close to an area of surface cyclogenesis in Far West Texas. Low level convergence will be fairly strong along this feature with backed winds out of the southeast at the surface. The strongest convergence will be located farther south closer to the center of the surface cyclone. Similar to today, a narrow ridge of higher theta-e values will advect northward but farther east into the Permian Basin and western South Plains. Cloud cover through much of the daytime hours will keep surface conditions cool and will struggle to attain any significant instability. Much stronger instability will reside across the Permian Basin and decrease farther north in the cooler surface air. Scattered convection can be expected along the southern end of the dryline with more isolated coverage in the southwestern South Plains. Therefore, any surface based severe coverage may be limited across the FA with a lack of strong instability. Our best chances of severe storms may be elevated storms producing large hail and damaging winds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 The low in the four corners region will slowly drift eastward into the central plains by Wednesday evening. As the system approaches eastern New Mexico, a lobe of energy will rotate around southern periphery of the circulation resulting in an increasingly negatively oriented trough as it approaches West Texas. Given the proximity of the low center, and height falls leading to enhanced instability, it sets the stage for another evening of active weather. The system will eject into the central plains on Wednesday while substantially weakening before getting caught up in a pseudo-phasing regime as it rotates about the southwestern side of a mature low up in the NERN part of the country. As the system finally moves out, we'll see our mid and upper level flow veer from NWRLY to NRLY which is indicated to persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Convection should be on going at the beginning of the period with a potential round of discrete convection ongoing by 00/Tue. All hazards would be on the table for these storms, likely supercellular, as they move across the south Plains. One fly in the ointment will be expansive cloudiness, primarily at H8, which tends to dramatically suppress storm severity and the trends for this will likely play a factor as Tuesday morning rolls around and we get some idea of just how likely we may see some breaks. If not, things could be quiet for a protracted period until the aforementioned embedded trough swings into SERN NM. As this happens, the mid-level cooling associated with such systems should modify thermodynamic profiles increasing instability along the TX/NM line. Initial shower activity should grow upscale during the late evening hours resulting in a QLCS Monday night sweeping east to west. As of Sunday afternoon's data, a relatively modest area of MU CAPE AOA 500 J/kg will be present mainly across the west. that said, storm motion vectors should largely be parallel to line itself with an attendant risk of heavy rain and potential flash flooding. Indications are that a good portion of the CWFA will see a good soaking rain overnight. One other thing to watch will be the low level wind fields ahead of the line. There are some indications of a bulge setting up across the southern zones and with 0-1km helicity values > 300 m2/s2, we could see some embedded QLCS tornadoes overnight. The NBM highlights a continuation of the rain into Tuesday and Tuesday evening, but confidence in this continued precipitation outside of our northeastern zones is low at best. Though, in fairness, some light showers might hang around depending on the morphology of the remnant system. There are some hints of another round of showers/storms Wednesday night, but the evolution depicted in the primary model depicting this solution (GFS) aren't particularly a scenario that would be typical for this time of year with a weak low east and NRLY flow aloft. For the remainder of the extended pleasant temperatures look to persist into next weekend with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Alas, if we could just keep that going all summer. Combs et al && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 VFR will continue through Monday morning before showers and thunderstorms move into KLBB and KPVW. These will move into KCDS a couple hours later. MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected at all sites thereafter through the remainder of the day. As storm coverage remains uncertain, any TS mention has been left out of the TAFs. Breezy SE winds will continue at KLBB and KPVW over the next few hours before slightly diminishing. Winds will again increase by Monday afternoon, with gusty and erratic winds possible within any thunderstorms that move over the terminals. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...19
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1129 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 TXZ021>044-051630- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1129 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. A line of storms is expected to spread out of eastern New Mexico this evening before dissipating over the South Plains tonight. A few wind gusts to 60 mph may accompany these storms along with hail up to half dollar size, mainly over the far southwest South Plains. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Some severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and overnight over portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Widespread heavy rain and a threat of flooding are expected Monday night. Thunderstorm chances linger through Thursday, although severe weather is unlikely. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:51 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Law enforcement in Yoakum County reported ping pong ball size hail between Denver City and Plains along Texas State Highway 214.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1244589.