Drought in Texas, May 13 to 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1249 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Main concerns for the short term are unseasonably high
temperatures and wind. High pressure over central TX providing
subsidence will rapidly serve up summer-like conditions and
maintain dry, sunny skies.

Dry weather, clear skies, and southerly flow allow apparent high
temperatures to rise into the triple digits Tuesday across much of
the area bar island communities. These unseasonably (though not
record-breaking) hot temperatures (5-15 degF above normal)
Tuesday leave a majority of Deep South Texas in a Moderate Risk
(level 2 of 4) of heat illness. Low temperatures tonight will be
near - if not a touch above - average, around 70. Tuesday night,
low temperatures don't recover as much, a couple degrees warmer
than tonight in the 70s across the CWA.

More information on Heat Risk can be found at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

An enhanced pressure gradient between a low pressure entering the
Central Plains and the aforementioned high pressure will increase
sustained winds and reinforce southerly flow. This, along with a
stark thermal gradient, will bring gusty winds early Tuesday and
continue through the period. Strongest winds are expected in
eastern counties; Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy, Brooks, and Hidalgo.
Gusts around 25 (west) to 35 (east) mph are possible.

Gusty conditions will bring a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents
Tuesday to local beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

I loaded the NBM and reviewed the current models. As mid-level
ridging builds over Texas this week, we'll be looking at the
threat of summer-time non-convective hazards. This will include
wind, fire weather, and heat. Rip current risk will elevate as
well due to building waves and increasing swell period over the
Gulf. While the ridge will tend to break down and shift slightly
east toward the end of the long term. The aforementioned hazards
will persist into this weekend.

Starting with winds, model guidance is projecting breezy to windy
conditions through the work week. The best chance for a wind
advisory for primarily the coastal counties and the lower to mid-
valley will be on Wednesday and Thursday as Plains low pressure
will be most evident then.

As winds are one of the three components of the fire weather
threat, there will be enhanced growth and spread concerns. Winds
will be stronger overall, but the favored area for fire weather
will be focused on the lower to mid Valley. Though there will be a
small threat for isolated pockets on Wednesday, confidence is
higher, due to the stronger winds, for a larger fire danger area
on Thursday. This threat will be driven mostly by winds and lower
relative humidity values, as dry fuels will be less of a factor.
The most vulnerable counties will be Brooks, Kenedy, Hidalgo,
Willacy, and Cameron.

The heat threat will likely affect the entire CWA through next
Monday (and beyond). High temperatures will rather easily reach
the century mark and then some for most inland areas west of I69-E
each afternoon. These temperatures will be some 10 degrees above
average. Overnight low temperatures too will be 5 to 10 degrees
above normal. Those same areas will experience daytime heat index
values of 105 to 110 degrees for a few hours. The area where
confidence is moderate that heat advisory criteria (>110 degrees
heat index) could be met is Starr County along the Rio Grande and
possibly also southwestern Hidalgo County. Of note: the CPC 6-10
day temperature outlook continues the trend of moderate to high
confidence for above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Some passing mid to high level clouds with light to moderate
south winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning.
South winds around 10 kts overnight will quickly increase to 15 to
25 knots later this morning with some gusts near 30 knots will be
possible in the afternoon. Winds are expected to slowly decrease
later this evening. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night...Favorable marine conditions are
expected to degrade by early Tuesday as southerly winds increase
to moderate-fresh. Slight seas begin building to moderate Tuesday
and will remain elevated through the period. Small Craft Exercise
Caution headlines are likely Tuesday, and Small Craft Advisories
are possible.

Wednesday through Saturday night...Gulf high pressure will get
some help from lower inland pressure to maintain a tight enough
gradient for small craft exercise caution to low end small craft
advisory conditions through the end of the week. Winds may
decrease slightly on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  92  77  93 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               73  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 74 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         71 107  77 107 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  85  77  86 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  91  76  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...63-KC