Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, March 29 to 30, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
641 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from
  this evening into early Sunday morning with predominantly a
  large hail threat. The severe threat will continue Sunday
  afternoon and evening along and east of I-35 with the arrival of
  a strong cold front.

- Beginning Tuesday night, there will be daily chances (30 to 50
  percent) for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The main focus through the short term is the ongoing convective
development along the dryline which will spread eastward through
parts of North and Central Texas tonight. The background
environment is quite favorable for storms to produce large hail in
the presence of very steep lapse rates and moderate shear,
although this will be dependent on the convective mode. Initial
storm motions may cause a faster transition from discrete cells to
clusters or small segments which would hinder individual updrafts
and result in a more marginal severe weather threat. However, if
any discrete cells can take on right-moving deviant motion, they
will have a much higher potential to produce significant hail.
While convection will initially be elevated, any established
robust cells could acquire the ability to ingest near-surface air
with the potential for all hazards. A lull will follow this round
of overnight convection heading into Sunday, before additional
strong/severe thunderstorms develop late Sunday afternoon in parts
of North and East Texas with the arrival of a strong cold front.
This is discussed in greater detail below.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday Night/

Low clouds and patchy fog from earlier this morning have given
way to a warm and breezy spring afternoon across North and Central
Texas. Return flow ahead of a progressive shortwave moving into
the region from the west will send temperatures soaring into the
low to upper 80s and low 90s. On top of this, dew points will
begin to plummet across our western counties as the dryline pushes
in late this afternoon into the evening. Due to these warm, dry,
and breezy conditions, an elevated fire weather threat will exist
across this region through sunset tonight, mainly off to the west
of the I-35 corridor.

Our weather will become a bit more active later this evening and
through the overnight hours into Sunday morning. The dryline will
continue mixing east late this evening, which will coincide with
increasing forcing for ascent as the aforementioned shortwave
moves across the Southern Plains. A mitigating factor regarding
the total extent and coverage of thunderstorm development will be
a strong capping inversion that will likely linger overnight.
While this will limit any potential for surface based storms,
there is still a medium chance that a few isolated, elevated
thunderstorms develop overnight tonight ahead of and along the
dryline as it pushes east. Plenty of MUCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg
coupled with steep lapse rates and bulk shear around 50 kts will
be conducive for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two, mainly
for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat will be
quite low given the lack of surface based storm potential,
especially if the strong capping inversion remains in place. Not
everyone will see storms overnight tonight, and any lingering
activity will dissipate through the mid to late morning Sunday.

By Sunday afternoon, the dryline will be well into North and
Central Texas. On top of this, a cold front will be pushing south
from Oklahoma into North Texas as another shortwave moves across
the region overhead. Slightly higher coverage in thunderstorms can
be expected ahead of these boundaries through Sunday afternoon
and evening, mainly east of I-35 and south of I-20. There is a bit
of uncertainty regarding when the cold front pushes south of the
Red River. Exact coverage and placement of convective initiation
will depend on how quickly the cold front pushes into our area.
Severe weather will be more likely with this second round of
thunderstorms, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threats. There will once again be a low threat for isolated
tornadoes as well should any surface based thunderstorms develop
along either boundary through Sunday evening. All storms will exit
to the south and east of our area beyond sunset Sunday night.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 211 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/
/Monday through Friday/

Post-frontal conditions can be expected on Monday following a
stormy weekend, with temperatures through Monday afternoon in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s. This cool and pleasant weather will be
short-lived, however. An active pattern will set up as broad,
synoptic scale troughing envelops the western CONUS starting on
Tuesday. Return flow will spread across North and Central Texas
through Tuesday afternoon, setting the stage for warm and breezy
weather through the entire week. Near daily rain chances will also
make a return to the entire region starting late Tuesday night.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through
the end of the week. Given ample moisture return along with
plenty of instability and shear, strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible each afternoon/evening. The best potential for
severe weather looks to be through Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Given how far out this potential is, there is still a
decent amount of uncertainty in the forecast as far as exact
details go. Regardless, a period of active and impactful weather
will persist for much of the upcoming week and into next weekend.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue developing to
the west of the TAF sites during the next few hours, possibly
directly impacting the airports between 04-09z. Latest guidance
points towards greater storm coverage compared to previous runs,
and a Tempo group for TSRA has been introduced. This convective
activity is also likely to disrupt southerly low-level return
flow tonight, which should interrupt or at least delay the
arrival of MVFR stratus overnight into Sunday. Following the
scattering of any remaining low-level cigs tomorrow morning, VFR
will prevail heading into the afternoon while winds veer westerly
ahead of a cold frontal passage. DFW area airports will have a
brief chance for thunderstorms to develop nearby late tomorrow
afternoon between 22-00z before this activity quickly moves off to
the east. A north wind will then prevail behind the front heading
into the overnight period with a low potential for MVFR post-
frontal stratus.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  89  53  71  53 /  60  30  20   0   0
Waco                66  86  57  74  51 /  40  20   5   0   0
Paris               66  83  50  69  49 /  50  40  40   5   0
Denton              61  88  48  70  47 /  60  10  10   0   0
McKinney            65  86  50  69  49 /  50  30  20   5   0
Dallas              67  89  55  71  52 /  50  40  20   5   0
Terrell             66  85  53  71  50 /  60  40  40   5   0
Corsicana           68  86  58  72  53 /  40  20  20   5   0
Temple              66  86  57  75  52 /  20  20   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       60  91  50  74  48 /  50   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&