Upslope flow, coupled with disturbances in the northerly flow aloft, resulted in the development of thunderstorms in far West Texas and portions of Southeast New Mexico. One of these storms produced a severe wind gust at Castolon.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Upslope flow, coupled with disturbances in the northerly flow aloft, resulted in the development of thunderstorms in far West Texas and portions of Southeast New Mexico. One of these storms produced a severe wind gust at Castolon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 3:53 PM CST, 9 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 453 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 451 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the higher terrain (40-60% there, 10-40% elsewhere). Rain chances Monday look similar to those of today. Localized flash flooding remains possible. - Gradual warming and drying trend after Monday, but with persistent rain chances southwest and west of Permian Basin and temperatures remaining seasonable into end of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 What a difference 24 hours makes. WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge just off the coast of SoCal, buttressed by a stubborn trough anchored over central Texas. KMAF 12Z RAOB came in with a PWAT of only 1.13"...under the daily mean of 1.18", suggesting a drying trend, at least temporarily, for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. That said, the only convection anticipated today and tonight will be confined to the mountains as easterly winds flow upslope. CAMs also develop isolated convection into the Southeast New Mexico Plains this evening. The LLJ is forecast to remain rather tepid this evening, allowing more efficient radiational cooling and overnight minimums to cool to within a degree or so of normal. Monday, the trough is forecast to move little, but thicknesses will begin increasing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, beginning a gradual-but-steady warming trend. Even so, highs Monday afternoon should come in a piteous 3-4 F below normal. Upslope flow will again promote orographic convective activity during the afternoon/evening, mainly invof the Davis Mountains. Monday night, this convection will taper off during the evening. The LLJ is forecast to strengthen a little, but temperatures should remain near tonight's, if not a skosh warmer as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Warming and drying trend begins Tuesday as ridging builds west from southeastern US and surface lee troughing develops over eastern NM into W TX. These features suppress lift over eastern and central parts of the area, decreasing rain chances for Permian Basin to low by Tuesday, and to moderate southwest of Permian Basin during Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon through evening. Rain probabilities also decrease to moderate each afternoon and evening into end of the week across SE NM plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Presidio Valley. Highs climbs from Monday, reaching mid 80s in higher elevations, lower to mid 90s, and mid 90s to triple digits along Rio Grande into Terrell County, increasing by a few degrees each day. Humid southeast winds keep dew point temperatures in mid to upper 60s, mid to lower 60s F for western higher terrain. These dew point temperatures and overnight cloud cover limit radiational cooling, with lows each night remaining in mid 60s to mid 70s F. Shear stays below 30 knots, limiting organized storm updrafts and longevity. Therefore, main impacts from storms are heavy rain/flash flooding, gusty winds, and small hail. Compared to previous forecasts, forecast rainfall has decreased to mean amounts of a few tenths of an inch up to 0.50" and low probabilities of amounts above that, with PWATs while still above average, decreasing more rapidly than previously forecast into end of the week/next weekend. By next weekend, highs reach the lower to mid 90s, mid to upper 80s higher elevations, and upper 90s into triple digits along Rio Grande into Terrell County, while lows warm into mid 70s F, mid to upper 60s F northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos. However, dew point temperatures decrease with more southerly winds starting Friday, so less humid weather is forecast by next weekend even with return of warmer than average temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 451 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Although forecast soundings develop a widespread cu fields Monday, convective chances are too low for a mention. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 92 71 91 / 0 10 10 10 Carlsbad 68 88 70 92 / 20 20 10 10 Dryden 72 92 72 93 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Stockton 69 92 71 94 / 0 20 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 64 82 66 85 / 10 20 10 10 Hobbs 67 88 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 Marfa 62 85 62 85 / 10 40 10 50 Midland Intl Airport 70 91 71 92 / 0 10 10 10 Odessa 69 89 71 91 / 0 10 10 10 Wink 70 91 70 93 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The West Texas Mesonet station 123 1NW Castolon BBNP measured a 64 mph thunderstorm wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1276981.