Weak low-to-mid level troughing, differential heating, and upslope flow contributed to the development of thunderstorms across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A couple of thunderstorms produced damaging wind gusts before dissipating after dark.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Weak low-to-mid level troughing, differential heating, and upslope flow contributed to the development of thunderstorms across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A couple of thunderstorms produced damaging wind gusts before dissipating after dark.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 3, 11:56 AM CST, 4 hours 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - There is a Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk of severe weather across the Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds is expected to be the main hazard, but large hail and a tornado can't be ruled out. - Widespread highs in the triple digits are forecast through the end of the week. Several areas look to reach Heat Advisory criteria. Keep cool and stay hydrated! && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 A relatively complex forecast is taking shape this afternoon and evening. While the upper-level ridge is beginning to strengthen and move towards our region, a shortwave trough is beginning to dig across the central Great Plains. Ahead of these features, a decaying area of showers and thunderstorms with associated cloud cover has entered the Permian Basin. This may delay, but be a foci, for additional thunderstorm develop late this afternoon and evening. With the building ridge, intense daytime heating pushes temperatures across the lower elevations and plains into the lower 100s. The higher elevations even see their temperatures climb well into the mid to upper 90s. By late this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to develop across the western Permian Basin and over the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. Any thunderstorms that develop are expected to move off towards the southeast through the evening ahead of the aforementioned approaching shortwave trough over the central Great Plains. Thunderstorms over the Permian Basin may pose a risk of severe weather with a Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk forecast. While, low-level moisture due to the very hot temperatures may limit instability, 30 to 40 kts of effective wind shear with the approaching shortwave will help to organize thunderstorms. A well-mixed boundary layer results in high cloud bases and an increased risk for damaging winds. This is expected to be our main hazard with thunderstorms through this evening, but large hail and a tornado can't be completely ruled out. Thunderstorms quickly dissipate through the late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Lingering cloud cover across the southern half of the region keeps most locations warm into Monday morning with widespread 70s expected. To the north, a weak cold front and clearing skies allows 60s to infiltrate the area during the morning hours. While the ridge continues to strengthen on Monday, the weak cold front limits this potential. Slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 90s hold on across the northern Permian Basin and over the higher elevations, while elsewhere soars into the 100s. A few locations across the Big Bend may even surpass 110 degrees. Heat Advisories may be required for some of our southern locations that see the worst of this heat. With the building ridge, large-scale subsidence increases, lessening thunderstorm potential for the majority of the area. The exception to this is over the Davis Mountains, where a slight chance of thunderstorms remains through the afternoon. Temperatures heading through Monday night into Tuesday morning are slow to cool, offering little relief from the heat. Most struggle to fall into the lower 70s by sunrise with any cooler temperatures in the 60s confined to northern Lea County and the higher elevations. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Summer heat ramps up as upper-level riding continues to track eastward, becoming centered over New Mexico on Tuesday. Without any major steering pattern, the ridge remains relatively stationary through the week. Heading into the upcoming weekend, ridging looks to start weakening, allowing highs to taper down closer to normal. Through the workweek, widespread highs in the upper 90s to 100s will be the norm each afternoon. The hottest conditions are expected within the Big Bend, especially along the Rio Grande, where highs are forecast to reach near to slightly above the 110 degree mark through the end of the week. As it stands, triple digit heat looks to decrease in coverage on Saturday as the upper ridge weakens. By next Sunday, highs in the 90s are forecast to return for most of the area. Lows each night are forecast to mainly settle into the 70s, with the exception of the 60s in and near the Davis Mountains. Given the expected extended heat, little recovery at night, and near zero rain chances, heat products are likely across several locations within the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout much of the TAF period. Winds will generally be light and southeasterly across the region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Permian Basin late this afternoon and evening. TAF impacts remain uncertain for CNM, HOB, and INK as any thunderstorms may remain to the east of these terminals. Trends will continue to be monitored if aviation impacts increase. MAF has the highest confidence of impacts near the 00Z time period. Brief visibility reductions with gusty and variable winds are possible near any thunderstorms that do develop. Thunderstorms dissipate after sunset with lingering high clouds and light southeast winds through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 99 72 100 / 40 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 101 72 102 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 76 104 75 102 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 104 75 102 / 30 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 94 71 95 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 67 98 70 100 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 65 96 64 95 / 20 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 73 101 74 100 / 40 0 0 0 Odessa 73 100 74 100 / 40 0 0 0 Wink 73 102 74 102 / 30 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...91
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
456 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
TXZ060-067-032245-
Ward TX-Winkler TX-
456 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN WINKLER COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...
At 456 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kermit, moving south at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Thorntonville, Pyote, Wickett, Roy Hurd Memorial Airport,
and Monahans Sandhills State Park.
This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 66 and 85.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3182 10313 3187 10291 3151 10278 3143 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 349DEG 26KT 3179 10303
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
91The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:19 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The sheriffs office received a report of an RV roof having been blow off onto a truck in Kermit. The time of occurrence is estimated from radar. The cost of damages is also estimated.
Emergency management reported a couple of power poles damaged/downed north of Fort Stockton. Minor roof damage was also reported, and a two unoccupied travel trailers were destroyed. The time of occurrence is estimated by radar. The cost of damages and maximum wind gust is also estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1277037, 1277049.