An upper high right over the El Paso area trapped low level monsoonal moisture under it. Early evening thunderstorms were slow moving and heavy rain caused flash flooding near Canutillo.
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The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
An upper high right over the El Paso area trapped low level monsoonal moisture under it. Early evening thunderstorms were slow moving and heavy rain caused flash flooding near Canutillo.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 18, 4:38 PM MST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 538 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 533 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - Deeper monsoonal moisture on southerly winds will persist through Tuesday, with abundant cloud coverage and chances for thunderstorms. - Moisture will slowly diminish around midweek to near normal on Wednesday, allowing for more isolated storm coverage. Even drier air expected late starting Thursday, with storms limited mostly to the mountains. - Temperatures remaining near normal through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Deep southerly flow continues across Southern NM and Far West TX with an UL trough off the west coast and a broad UL high over much of the CONUS. This morning's sounding showed 1.37" of PW with about 800 J/kg of CAPE, so we expect another round of showers and thunderstorms today with storms starting in the mountains before moving into the lowlands by late afternoon into the evening. The HRRR continues convection well into the overnight and early morning hours. A warm-core MCV (cyclonic low-level circulation below an anticyclonic UL circulation) just north of Hermosillo, Sonora though it's unclear how it may affect our weather. With us on the perimeter of it, it is more likely to enhance it, which may explain the HRRR's tendency to keep convection ongoing so late. Localized flash flooding will be the main concern today. Even though we are in deep southerly flow, the UL pattern is in flux. The UL high will reform to our north, toward and just east of the Four Corners, this afternoon, becoming fully established by Tuesday. It's not the most favorable thermodynamic pattern, but deep easterly flow will continue to sustain healthy moisture for the area. Thus Tuesday will feature another round of at least scattered thunderstorms with an attendant risk for flash flooding. Drier air begins moving into the area on Wednesday though latest guidance only shows a modest decrease (0.10-0.15), keeping values above normal. Looking at the LREF, some minor warming looks to occur as well with the expansion of the UL high. Convective coverage should decrease as a result, but not nearly enough to eliminate storm chances. That changes for Thursday though as east to northeasterly flow continues to advect dry air with PW values expected to drop below 1". Storm chances will be limited to the mountains as a result. We will remain in a dry pattern to finish the period (Friday through Sunday) as PW values drop further, remaining below 1". Additionally the UL high will shift south, gradually centering itself over the central AZ-NM border. The mountains, particularly the Gila, will continue to see low thunderstorm chances (around 20%), but elsewhere will be dry. Temperatures will also warm, but two things will limit our otherwise hot pattern. One, the high is not particularly strong at H500, only around 594 dm, and two, our air mass will come from the Central Plains allowing weak CAA. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Unsettled weather will persist during the early portion of the TAF period. Scattered tstms are currently favoring srn NM and wrn TX, including in and around KELP and KLRU. Expect lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys with and direct hits to terminals due to brief heavy rainfall. Boundary collisions may spark additional development later this evening and into the early overnight timeframe. Winds will become light and vrb aft tstms diminish. A few shwrs will be possible aft 19/11Z, mainly across centrl areas. Another round of aftn tstms is expected Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Minimal to nil fire concerns continue as monsoonal moisture remains in place. This afternoon and evening will feature more showers and thunderstorms, initiating first in the mountains before moving into the lowlands. We will see another night of good to excellent recoveries while afternoon RH values range 25 to 35 in the lowlands tomorrow afternoon. Tuesday will feature more afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorms. Starting Wednesday, we will see a slow decrease in moisture with a decrease in storm coverage. Thursday sees a sharper decrease ending storm chances for all but the mountains. Min RH values will remain above 20%, however. Winds, outside of thunderstorms, will be light. Venting will generally range fair to good, increasing throughout the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 95 74 94 / 40 40 30 20 Sierra Blanca 66 89 66 88 / 40 60 20 50 Las Cruces 69 91 69 91 / 50 40 40 20 Alamogordo 69 90 68 90 / 40 40 30 30 Cloudcroft 51 68 50 68 / 40 70 30 60 Truth or Consequences 69 90 69 91 / 40 40 40 20 Silver City 64 86 64 87 / 50 70 60 50 Deming 69 94 70 95 / 50 40 50 20 Lordsburg 69 94 69 94 / 50 60 60 30 West El Paso Metro 74 93 74 93 / 40 40 30 20 Dell City 69 93 68 91 / 30 40 10 30 Fort Hancock 73 94 72 94 / 40 60 20 40 Loma Linda 67 87 67 86 / 40 50 20 30 Fabens 72 94 71 94 / 30 50 20 20 Santa Teresa 72 92 71 92 / 40 40 40 20 White Sands HQ 72 93 72 92 / 50 50 40 30 Jornada Range 69 91 69 91 / 50 50 50 30 Hatch 69 94 69 94 / 50 40 50 20 Columbus 71 94 72 94 / 50 30 50 20 Orogrande 69 89 67 89 / 40 40 30 30 Mayhill 56 79 55 79 / 40 70 30 60 Mescalero 55 79 54 79 / 50 70 30 50 Timberon 55 76 54 76 / 40 70 20 50 Winston 56 85 58 85 / 40 60 50 40 Hillsboro 64 91 64 91 / 40 50 60 30 Spaceport 67 90 68 91 / 50 40 40 20 Lake Roberts 57 86 58 87 / 50 70 60 60 Hurley 64 87 64 88 / 50 60 50 40 Cliff 66 93 66 94 / 50 70 50 50 Mule Creek 63 89 63 90 / 40 70 40 50 Faywood 65 87 65 88 / 40 60 50 40 Animas 68 94 69 94 / 50 60 60 20 Hachita 66 92 67 92 / 50 50 60 20 Antelope Wells 66 92 66 91 / 50 50 60 20 Cloverdale 64 87 66 88 / 60 60 60 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && FORECASTER...99
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 10 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:48 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Road closures were reported on 1st Street in Canutillo due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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