Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Texas, August 17, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
142 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the
   Caprock and Rolling Plains today.

 - Daily chances for storms will continue through most of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Current radar imagery shows showers that lingered through this
morning are beginning to dissipate. However, precipitation chances
are not done for the day. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
return later this afternoon through the evening. Upper level ridging
will remain stagnant over the region through today. Subsidence from
the upper ridging should prevent convective development, however
with current water vapor imagery indicating a monsoonal moisture
plume over the region and southerly surface upslope winds in
response to a lee side trough, we can expect isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop over higher terrain once
convective temperatures have been reached and track into our region.
Any storms that do develop are expected to remain sub-severe but
could see short periods of localized heavy rainfall with PWAT values
between 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Southerly surface flow and mostly sunny
skies today will keep temperatures warm in the lower to mid 90s on
the Caprock and upper 90s off the Caprock. Mild temperatures
expected tonight in the upper 60s on the Caprock and low to mid 70s
off the Caprock. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
overnight into the early hours Monday morning with models indicating
storms developing in the panhandle before tracking south to
southeast into northern portions of our region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

No big changes to the long term forecast with warm temperatures and
storm chances expected. The upper ridging will remain overhead
through Monday, however a potent upper trough developing over the
Pacific Northwest will begin to pull the ridging to the west of our
region and should reach the southern Rockies by Wednesday.
Convective chances continue Monday and Tuesday with residual
monsoonal moisture, southerly surface flow, and warm convective
temperatures being reached. A cold front is progged to track through
the region Wednesday effectively shifting winds to the north,
however temperatures will drop below average, but only by a few
degrees with most of the region still reaching the 90s through the
latter half of the week. The mid to upper levels will begin to
gradually dry out Wednesday as the upper ridging over the southern
Rockies amplifies, however storms are possible Wednesday following
the FROPA. As the atmosphere continues to dry out towards the end of
the week, precipitation chances decrease with only slight chances
remain over southern portions of the Rolling Plains Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR is expected through the TAF period. However, there is a slight
chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, particularly at
KLBB and KPVW. Coverage is not expected to be high enough to warrant
a mention in the TAF at the moment.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
553 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

TXZ021>044-181100-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
553 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Caprock and Rolling
Plains. Strong wind gusts in excess of 50 mph will be possible with
the strongest storms. Locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated
instances of flash flooding. The severe weather threat is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances continue to be forecast Monday through early
Thursday across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains. The
highest storm chances will be Tuesday into Wednesday as a weakening
cold front moves into the region.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
227 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

TXZ039-172000-
Yoakum TX-
227 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN YOAKUM COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 227 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Bronco, or 7 miles west of Plains. This
thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Plains and Bronco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3336 10299 3320 10273 3307 10291 3316 10306
      3321 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 215DEG 2KT 3319 10295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

01