Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, April 30, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
618 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

A line of thunderstorms, supported by the approach of a robust
midlevel trough and surface frontal boundary, will push into the
area shortly and produce scattered strong storms over the course
of the late afternoon and evening. Elevated surface/mixed-layer
instability, limited inhibition, abundant low-level moisture, and
effective layer shear in excess of 30 knots will support the
potential for some strong to severe storms. The greatest risk of
storms will be for locations north of the I-10 corridor, where
there will be a potential for hail, damaging wind gusts, and an
isolated tornado. As the line pushes further south in the late
evening into an environment that will be less conducive for
severe weather, there will be a decreasing but nonzero chance for
storm development. The associated boundary is expected to stall
somewhere near the coast during the early morning hours, with some
lingering showers possible into tomorrow. In addition to the
severe storm threat, there is also the potential for localized
heavy rainfall that could potentially result in isolated flash
flooding. In general, however, the severe weather threat is the
primary concern for this system.

HiRes models continue to indicate a resurgence in thunderstorm
development tomorrow afternoon as we approach peak heating, but
coverage is expected to be far more isolated in nature compared to
today. Still, any storms that do develop will be able to tape into
strong surface instability (2500 J/kg +) and could presumably
maintain sufficient updraft strength to produce isolated impacts.

Look for temperatures overnight and tomorrow night to to continue
to sit in the low 70s (mid 70s at the coast). Tomorrow, highs will
once again approach the upper 80s across most of the area.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

An uptick in showers and thunderstorms may occur over portions of
Southeast Texas on Friday into Saturday morning as a few features
interact with each other throughout the day/night. An upper level
trough is expected to move across the Southern Plains while a weak
cold front moves across the region along with some weak mid-upper
level disturbances. We could see a rise in low level moisture,
with PWs ranging between 1.4 to 1.6 inches by Friday afternoon and
remain close to the 1.5 to 1.7 inches range overnight into
Saturday morning. In addition, a few vort maxes will be passing
through during the day and night, which could help intensify some
of the showers/storms. Brief periods of heavy rainfall are possible.

Thanks to the increased cloud coverage, rainfall, and drier air
filtering in, the highs on Saturday will cool off a bit – ranging in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Conditions warm up a bit on Sunday and
will not be as rainy in response to a developing mid to upper level
ridge. Mostly dry conditions expected Monday as the ridge dominates
the local weather pattern. Rain chances could return Tuesday as
another trough makes its way into Southern Plains.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Main impact for this evening/overnight is a line of
showers/thunderstorms pushing through the region beginning a
couple of hours after TAF issuance. Timing is still somewhat
questionable, but confidence is increasing on a decent timeframe
for the line of storms which has been covered by PROB30's. The
PROB30's in this case aren't for the uncertainty of
thunderstorms...but for the uncertainty of the timing of them. So,
think of them as the most likely window for convection. Some
gusty winds can be expected along the line with lingering SH for a
few hours. Currently have the line moving into CLL around 02-03Z,
at IAH/HOU around 07-08Z, and at GLS around 09-10Z. Another round
of isolated to scattered showers/storms is possible on Thursday
afternoon as well, but covering those with VCSH for now until
there's more consensus.

Outside of that, another round of MVFR ceilings moving in from
south to north overnight and lingering into the mid-morning hours.
Additionally, expecting another round of breezy
southerly/southeasterly winds with sustained winds around 15-20 kt
and gusts up to 25-30 kt through the afternoon.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

An uptick in showers and thunderstorms may occur over portions of
Southeast Texas on Friday into Saturday morning as a few features
interact with each other throughout the day/night. An upper level
trough is expected to move across the Southern Plains while a weak
cold front moves across the region along with some weak mid-upper
level disturbances. We could see a rise in low level moisture,
with PWs ranging between 1.4 to 1.6 inches by Friday afternoon and
remain close to the 1.5 to 1.7 inches range overnight into
Saturday morning. In addition, a few vort maxes will be passing
through during the day and night, which could help intensify some
of the showers/storms. Brief periods of heavy rainfall are possible.

Thanks to the increased cloud coverage, rainfall, and drier air
filtering in, the highs on Saturday will cool off a bit – ranging in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Conditions warm up a bit on Sunday and
will not be as rainy in response to a developing mid to upper level
ridge. Mostly dry conditions expected Monday as the ridge dominates
the local weather pattern. Rain chances could return Tuesday as
another trough makes its way into Southern Plains.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  70  90  68  87 /  70  20  10  70
Houston (IAH)			  73  89  70  87 /  50  30  10  50
Galveston (GLS)			  75  83  75  82 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cotto (24)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
711 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

TXZ163-010100-
Houston TX-
711 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY
THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 710 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Buffalo, or 22 miles southwest of Palestine, moving
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Grapeland, Weches, and Mound City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 9526 3157 9521 3158 9517 3156 9514
      3154 9514 3153 9512 3150 9509 3149 9511
      3148 9511 3139 9570 3146 9571 3146 9575
      3147 9572 3149 9573 3149 9575 3150 9574
      3153 9565 3154 9565 3159 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 256DEG 38KT 3148 9586

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
922 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

TXZ163-176-010300-
Madison TX-Houston TX-
922 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN HOUSTON AND NORTHEASTERN
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...

At 921 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Palestine to 8 miles west of
Grapeland to 10 miles northwest of Austonio. Movement was southeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crockett, Austonio, Grapeland, Latexo, and Mound City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 9526 3129 9539 3101 9560 3109 9577
      3112 9578 3116 9573 3121 9575 3123 9573
      3127 9573 3132 9565 3135 9568 3136 9566
      3139 9570 3146 9571 3146 9575 3147 9572
      3150 9574 3153 9565 3154 9565 3159 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 313DEG 25KT 3173 9551 3148 9562 3128 9578

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EMF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
931 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

TXZ163-176-177-195-196-198-010315-
Madison TX-Walker TX-Brazos TX-Grimes TX-Burleson TX-Houston TX-
931 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GRIMES...CENTRAL
BURLESON...BRAZOS...SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON...MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN
WALKER COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...

At 931 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Fort Boggy State Park to 9
miles north of Kurten to 11 miles east of Rockdale. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern College Station, Bryan, Madisonville, Caldwell, Bedias,
Kurten, Wixon Valley, Kyle Field, Bryan Utilities Lake, Normangee,
Iola, Deanville, Chriesman, and North Zulch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3073 9662 3070 9656 3074 9646 3093 9633
      3109 9598 3110 9576 3114 9578 3098 9554
      3085 9575 3039 9679 3046 9690 3053 9691
      3056 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 277DEG 29KT 3115 9587 3092 9628 3072 9683

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EMF