Tornadoes and Flooding in Texas, April 25 to 26, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
120 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
  central and southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening.
  Large hail, damaging winds, a low tornado threat, and heavy
  rainfall will be possible.

- Strong to severe storm threat is lower but will still be
  possible on Saturday and Sunday.

- Daily chances for thunderstorms continues each day through the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

All eyes are on the location of a weak cold front stalling
over the area this afternoon, which will heavily dictate the
northward extent of today's severe weather risk. As of 18z,
satellite and sfc observations have the front analyzed as
bisecting the Texas Panhandle roughly from Boys Ranch to Pampa to
Canadian. Model trends have the front eventually stalling
southward progression just north of the I-40 corridor, which has
left a sufficient warm/moist sector for thunderstorm development
this afternoon. This scenario would present the opportunity for
supercells with all hazards possible across the southern Texas
Panhandle.

Environmentally, our 12z observed sounding depicts an environment
ready to produce severe thunderstorms once we reach convective
temperatures. MUCAPE values >2000 J/kg with steep mid-level lapse
rates, dew pts in the low 60s, and sufficient bulk shear ~30kts,
with a capping inversion at 800mb. Once this warm nose is eroded,
which is already ongoing where clouds are clearing in conjunction
with a sfc circulation over the south central-southwest TX
Panhandle, scattered supercells should develop around 2-4 PM. Even
if the front continues to push further south than currently
anticipated, elevated storms capable of large hail up to tennis
ball size and damaging winds can be expected across the southern
panhandle. Despite lack of stronger mid-level flow to enhance
shear values and upper level synoptic support, backed winds out of
the east are forecast along & ahead of the front, which is where
a low-end tornado threat will exist through the evening hours. As
previously mentioned, abundant moisture with dew pts in the 60s
is in place, helping to lower LCLs for sfc based convection.
Similar to yesterday, forecast soundings and current observations
show low-level shear values to be quite meager initially (<10kt
0-1km shear, <100 0-1km SRH). But also like yesterday, shear
profiles should become slightly more favorable with time
(especially with any right-moving supercells) thanks to backed sfc
winds and an increasing 20-30kt low-level jet through the event.

Showers and storms will fill in across much of the west TX High
Plains later in the evening to overnight hours as a subtle upper
level perturbation arrives within southwest flow aloft. Our focus
will transition to more of a hail and heavy rain concern as a
result through tomorrow, especially with PWATs around 1"
producing heavy rainfall rates and training storms. CAMs have been
fairly consistent highlighting a corridor of 1-2" rainfall
amounts along and south of I-40 by Saturday afternoon, which is
supported by 40-70% probabilities to exceed 1". Flash flooding
will be yet another hazard to keep in mind as the event unfolds
through tomorrow.

Models disagree somewhat on when showers & storms will dissipate
tomorrow afternoon-evening, but the general consensus is for
activity to wane by Saturday night. There is a low chance for
stronger storms to approach our western Panhandles from NM
tomorrow, but confidence in this activity reaching our forecast
area is low given potential ongoing precipitation.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

One more chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday for at
least the southeastern half of the combined Panhandles. Although
this is based on the NBM mean that gives widespread 30 PoPs. There
is a bit of skepticism with this though, as the area is progged to
be under the right exit region of an upper level jet. Subsidence
should limit the precipitation chance which the NBM50 supports
with the Panhandles not having any PoPs. The NBM75 only gives
some slight chances for small areas in the east/northeastern
combined Panhandles.

Monday looks dry outside of the far southeastern TX Panhandle
which will have 20 to 30 PoPs at this time. Dry air is looking to
fill in at the surface mixing a dry line well to the east. The
dryline positioning will determine the overall chances for the
southeastern TX Panhandle on Monday. Then on Tuesday precip
chances retreat a bit further west with slight chance PoPs along
the HWY 60 corridor, with higher chances to the southeast. This
will be thanks to a cold front passage.

Under southwest flow aloft Sun and Mon, under the influence of a
upper level ridge, daytime highs are progged to be in the 80s
across the region. Monday night an upper level trough over the
Desert Southwest will propagate towards the combined Panhandles
and should help send a weak cold front from the north on Tue.
North to northeasterly winds Tue will help hold back temps in the
low to mid 70s. Continued influence of the upper level trough may
bring even more widespread 20 to 50 PoPs to the combined
Panhandles for Wed and Thu. Mid to late week may bring the FA
back to more potential moisture but also potential severe storms.
Details are still a bit too fuzzy, this far out, on the severe
threat at this time to know exactly how much of a threat will
exist.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Pesky low clouds and fog continue to wreak havoc on the TAFs for
KDHT and KGUY this afternoon, and are expected to persist for at
least the next few hours, but likely through the end of the
period. KAMA has had some slight clearing, which will help
increase thunderstorm chances (potentially strong-severe) near
the terminal this afternoon and evening. Showers and storms will
likely become more widespread this evening after 00z, so TSRA
mentions have been included in the TAF, with a period of clearing
possible around 06z, so have included PROB 30 groups in case
storms persist. Showers will also be possible at KDHT and KGUY
this evening and overnight as well. Winds will be out of the east
southeast at 10-20 kts throughout the period.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  70  56  85 /  90  80  50  30
Beaver OK                  49  66  53  84 /  60  80  50  30
Boise City OK              45  67  51  84 /  70  60  30  10
Borger TX                  55  73  57  88 /  80  80  50  30
Boys Ranch TX              53  73  56  87 /  80  80  50  20
Canyon TX                  55  71  56  85 /  80  80  50  20
Clarendon TX               55  69  56  81 /  90  90  50  30
Dalhart TX                 47  69  51  84 /  80  70  40  10
Guymon OK                  47  67  52  86 /  70  80  40  20
Hereford TX                54  72  56  86 /  80  80  50  20
Lipscomb TX                53  68  56  82 /  70  80  40  30
Pampa TX                   54  69  57  82 /  80  80  50  30
Shamrock TX                56  70  57  80 /  90  90  50  30
Wellington TX              57  71  57  81 /  80  90  50  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...38

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
222 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-260730-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
222 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 PM tonight for the southern
Texas Panhandle. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
tornadoes will be possible.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the southern Texas Panhandle
from 5 PM to 3 AM tonight for the risk of excessive rainfall from
tonight's thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible across some parts
of the Panhandles on Saturday and Sunday. The primary hazards
with any severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

There are continued chances for thunderstorms each day from Monday
through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     Hail             9 SSW Spearman          36.08N 101.27W
04/24/2025  M3.00 Inch       Hansford           TX   Trained Spotter

&&