Hail in Texas, April 19, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight with
   severe storms possible over the southern Rolling Plains.

 - Dry and pleasant weather will return to the entire area on
   Sunday and Monday.

 - An active weather pattern will result in daily chances for
   thunderstorms from Tuesday through the rest of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The forecast for this evening and into tonight is on track. Recent
trends in satellite and WSR-88D imagery indicate a baroclinic leaf
developing over the lee of the southern Rocky Mountains, with an
organizing band of elevated, WAA-induced thunderstorms continuing
to evolve in eastern New Mexico. This band of storms is expected
to further organize as it translates eastward towards the NM state
line in the next few hours. The mean cellular movement within
this eastward-translating band is to the northeast, and this
behavior is expected to continue into the nighttime hours as the
neutrally-tilted trough becomes negatively-tilted. It appears that
the time-of-arrival for the City of Lubbock will be near 03Z, or
10 PM CDT. The primary hazards associated with the line of storms
over the Caprock will be brief downpours and small hail (up to
quarter size). Trends are being monitored.

Sincavage

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A cool air mass remains in place across the forecast area, although
a more agressive clearing of stratus on the west end will require a
readjustment of this afternoon's temperatures there while eastern
areas will have a hard time breaking out into sunshine. Afternoon
convective initiation still looks like it will be focused primarily
along the frontal boundary that has stalled across the southern
Permian Basin to the Concho Valley. Some movement northeastward over
the cool air mass in addition to additional convective initiation
farther north into the South Plains is expected this evening as deep
ascent begins and increases over the region ahead of the mid/upper
low making its way eastward across western New Mexico this
afternoon. High PoPs continue to look in order for most of the
forecast area with the least confidence in precip to the southwest
of Lubbock, an area that may be just a bit west and south of the
required lift. Precip should exit the forecast area Sunday morning
as the mid/upper circulation ejects northeastward across western
Oklahoma. In its wake, drier, sunnier, a bit warmer conditions are
expected, but highs should still run several degrees below
climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Going to be a pleasant start of the work week. The upper storm
system that brought precipitation chances over the weekend will move
away from the region on Sunday. Zonal flow aloft and a dry air mass
will precede the upper low, clearing clouds Sunday evening through
Monday. Southerly surface winds and mostly clear skies will allow
temperatures on Monday to warm to just above seasonal normal.
Precipitation chances return Tuesday afternoon and is expected
through the rest of the week. Broad troughing will set up over the
western CONUS bringing southwesterly flow aloft, ushering in
subtropical moisture. This upper pattern should remain through the
rest of the week. A typical springtime dryline will set up over or
near the region for most of the week in combination with a couple
embedded upper disturbances moving over the region bring shower and
thunderstorm chances to most of the region late afternoon Tuesday
and should continue through the end of the work week. Models show a
cold front tracking through the region toward the end of the week
possibly prolonging precipitation into the weekend. Even though
there will be some WAA from the southerly surface flow, temperatures
will remain at or near seasonal normal due to mostly cloudy skies
and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The edge of the low stratus deck lies precariously close to KLBB
and KPVW, where CIGs have since scattered out. However, as dusk
approaches and the easterly winds are maintained, CIGs are once
again forecast to lower, perhaps into IFR, after dark. IFR CIGs
will continue at KCDS. Furthermore, a band of thunderstorms
continues to organize over eastern New Mexico, and is moving
eastward. TEMPO groups have been assigned to reflect the timing
of the line, and hazards will include: Surface wind gusts to 40
kt, small hail surface-to-aloft; and brief, heavy rainfall, which
will cause localized reductions in VSBY. Low CIGs will linger
following the passage of the line of storms, before rapid
improvements to VFR occur near or shortly after sunrise as the
storm system moves off to the northeast from the region. VFR will
prevail by late tomorrow morning, with northwesterly diminishing
winds by the mid-afternoon hours.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...09
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

TXZ021>044-202330-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the South
Plains area this evening and through the overnight hours. Isolated
thunderstorms may become severe, primarily across the southern
Rolling Plains. Hail up to size of quarters, wind gusts up to 60 mph,
and heavy rainfall resulting in localized flash flooding will be
possible with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Daily thunderstorm chances return to the entire forecast area from
Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.