A low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley brought locally heavy rain to the region.
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The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
A low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley brought locally heavy rain to the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 7, 8:42 AM EST, 3 hours 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 942 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms can be expected today ahead of a cold front that moves through the Ohio Valley tonight. Cooler conditions arrive behind the front for the middle and end of the week as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Morning update... No major changes from the previous forecast. The morning 12Z balloon launched terminated early, likely due to the moderate and heavy rainfall that was occurring over Wilmington at the time. Despite not having all of the data, the atmosphere is clearly deeply saturated, validating the anomalous PWATs in the 1.6-1.8 inch range. The lack of deep convection has helped keep the localized flash flood threat lower, but some areas are beginning to saturate. Portions of southern Ohio have seen about 1.5 to 2" and with heavier rain arriving once again later this morning, some advisory level flooding should be expected. This secondary period of heavy rain will also impact the Ohio River area, including extreme southern Ohio and northern/northeast Kentucky. Those areas have only seen about a half inch, but may see upward of 2" by this afternoon. Heavier rainfall rates within isolated thunderstorm activity may be enough to prompt flooding concerns. Otherwise, lower rainfall amounts are expected to the north, with additional development later this afternoon and evening along the cold front. Some thunderstorm activity is possible with the front, and the severe threat remains low. Previous discussion as of 157am... Broad southwesterly H5 flow to persist today ahead of mean trof which settles into the Great Lakes tonight. H8 30-35 KT low level jet offers favorable moisture transport as it pivot thru the area this morning into early aftn. PWATs increase to between 1.6 and 1.8 inches. Rain chances to to persist across the area today into tonight ahead of a surface cold front that slips into west central Ohio late in the day. Radar/satellite and CAM solutions showing two waves of widespread pcpn - one early this morning moving thru the area now and then a second on it's heels moving thru the area mid morning thru mid aftn. Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected with the potential for local amounts over 2 inches. Antecedent conditions are starting out rather dry but heavy rain in pockets could lead to localized flooding. Will continue to mention this heavy rain threat in the HWO. Instability will be marginal with forecast sounding profiles showing "skinny CAPE". Embedded thunder will be possible in the widespread rain will ahead of the cold front. High temperatures generally in the lower and middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As the surface cold front begins to enter the northwest late in the day, showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected into the evening hours along the front. Rainfall chances end from the northwest - finally clearing southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky after midnight with the front continuing to drop south of the area. Clouds begin to clear from the northwest late tonight. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. MEan longwave H5 trof shifts east of the area with northwest flow developing. Expansive surface high pressure of Canadian origin to build across the Great Lakes Wednesday. Light northerly wind becomes northeast with Wednesday afternoon wind gusts up to 20 mph possible. Cooler temperatures with highs from the lower 60s northwest to near 70 southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... On Wednesday evening, a large area of surface high pressure will be centered near Sault Ste Marie, with a dry air mass associated with the high extending southward through much of the Ohio Valley. The cool and dry conditions will be favorable for radiational cooling, and min temps Wednesday night / Thursday morning are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some patchy frost will be possible in outlying areas, particularly for the northern sections of the forecast area. Conditions on Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60s, and northeasterly flow. As the surface high shifts further to the east, a return to southerly flow is expected by Friday, which will begin a slight warming trend heading into the weekend. The upper level pattern will become a bit more complicated from Friday onward. A weak shortwave and cold front are expected to move southeast into the Great Lakes on Friday, but these features are expected to dissipate before reaching the Ohio Valley. After this, a closed low may develop somewhere over the southeastern states, with ridging from the deep south into the Great Lakes. The ILN CWA will be more influenced by the ridging, with high pressure and dry air leading to another period of tranquil weather. Temperatures will rise through the weekend, reaching the mid 70s by Monday, but precipitation will be kept out of the forecast. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Moist southwesterly flow ahead of a surface cold front will bring a couple of rounds of widespread rain showers with embedded thunderstorms. The cold front that moves across the TAF sites this evening results in a wind shift to the northwest to north and an end to the rain. Ceilings to drop thru MVFR with widespread IFR ceilings expected thru most of the day and into this evening. In addition, we will see periods of IFR visibility restrictions during the steadiest precipitation. Can't rule out some embedded thunder at times but due to limited coverage have omitted the mention of thunder from the TAFS. After the second wave moves thru later this aftn expect a brief pause or reduction in pcpn coverage until the cold front arrives. The cold front will drop southeast through the terminals this evening. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected, along with a wind shift to the northwest and north behind the front. Expect ceilings to linger in the MVFR category thru most of the night with some improvement from the northwest late tonight thru early Wednesday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger Wednesday morning - mainly across the eastern TAF sites. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...McGinnis/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...AR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1243 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-081645- Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union-Delaware-Miami- Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking- 1243 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Ohio and west central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 30s Thursday night into early Friday morning. With light winds and calm winds also expected, areas of frost will be possible, especially in rural and sheltered locations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082- 088-081645- Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland- Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken- Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield- Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland- Adams-Pike-Scioto- 1243 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana, southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Widespread rain with isolated embedded thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be possible, with storm total accumulations ranging from 1 to 4 inches. This heavy rain may produce localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High water was reported along several roads in London.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, October 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1290008.