A stalled stationary front sparked showers and thunderstorms that produced heavy rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
A stalled stationary front sparked showers and thunderstorms that produced heavy rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 7:40 PM EST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 840 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low to track slowly from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley bringing cool, cloudy, and rainy conditions into the region through Monday. Isolated to scattered showers linger on Tuesday as the low departs the area with drier conditions returning toward midweek. Much below normal temperatures will persist until a warmup develops at midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Mid level low currently over the Mid MS valley will drift slowly through the overnight hours, making very little eastward progress. While a respite from the steady rain is expected over eastern IN and portions of northern KY and western OH, low clouds will persist, along with temperatures falling into the 40s. As the low pivots through western KY late tonight, another round of enhanced moisture will lift north during the region, mainly after 06z. Coverage will be more showery in nature compared to this past afternoon, along with limited instability/potential for thunder. Low tonight to range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mid/upper level low over western KY at daybreak Sunday is expected to track slowly east across KY and then rotate into the Tri-State region Sunday night. Several narrow arcing axes of rain showers will pivot to the north across the area as the cutoff low meanders across KY. The best coverage of rain looks to occur across the souther counties - closer to the low. e main concern will be the slow moving nature of the pcpn elements may lead to spotty/ISO in nature. Under mainly cloudy skies temperatures will only rise to highs from the mid 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Rain shower coverage to decrease Sunday night but a chance threat will persist thru the night. Lows are expected to be generally in the upper 40s to around 50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A vertically-stacked cutoff low remains over the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday before progressing northeast. Cool, cloudy, and showery conditions persist. Beyond Tuesday night the forecast exhibits uncertainty. There appears to be a brief break from upper level troughing for the midweek when westerlies strengthen. This may allow a reprive from moderate to high end shower chances and some warmer temperatures to develop. However, troughing appears likely to up southwest of the Ohio Vally toward the Gulf states for the end of the week in the form of a cutoff low. This upper level pattern coincides with northerly low level flow and below average temperatures in the Ohio Valley. There is a chance the troughing sets up far enough south that the ridging, and warmer air, north of the trough could work into the area but that seems fairly unlikely at this time. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... With the area dominated by a meandering upper level low over the mid MS Valley, MVFR to occasionally IFR cigs through the period, some potential for LIFR cigs. Visibility will generally be VFR to occasionally MVFR in showers. Earlier wind gusts associated with some low level convergence on a weakening trend, so wind gusts expected to diminish a bit overnight, though remain generally above 10kts. After 12z, MVFR to occasionally IFR cigs prevail, with PROB30 shra through much of the daylight hours. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs may persist at times through Monday and Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...JDR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 332 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 INZ050-058-059-066-073-OHZ026-034-035-042-043-051-060-041945- Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Miami-Preble- 332 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana, southeast Indiana and west central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ074-075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ044>046-052>056-061>065-070>074-077>082- 088-041945- Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell- Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Logan-Union- Delaware-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Montgomery-Greene- Fayette-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking- Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 332 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Widespread rain is expected into tonight. Additional downpours on top of already saturated soils may result in isolated flooding, particularly in low-lying and flood-prone areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High water was reported over the intersection of Haydenville Road and Wandling Road.
High water was reported over the intersection of State Route 278 and State Route 595.
High water was reported near the intersection of Tick Ridge Road and State Route 56.
Water was reported over State Route 278.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1250515, 1250516, 1250517, 1250518.