Slow moving thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain during the evening hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Slow moving thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain during the evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 16, 8:46 PM EST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 946 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day through Thursday. Drier weather is then expected on Friday, with warmer and more humid conditions expected next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... East-west oriented frontal boundary has nudged slightly north to a position across east-central Ohio and the southern I-70 corridor. Moderate instability has developed across the area with BL CAPES of 1000-1500 J/KG. Very moist environment with ILN/s PWat of 1.73 inches. Favorable moisture advection continues with PWat values increasing to between 1.8 to 2 inches across the area overnight into Tuesday morning. Coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms to increase from the southwest overnight hours as a mid level shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley providing modest deep layer ascent. The front will remain the focus for the best coverage of convection with the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding. Some locations have the potential to observe 2 to 4 inches if storms train over the same area. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday but should begin to taper off from the northwest through the afternoon and into the evening as the mid level trough axis moves east of our area. Wind fields are a bit stronger on Tuesday which could lead to a few stronger storms, but the main threat will continue to be locally heavy rainfall as PWs will remain around 2 inches. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Tuesday night in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The local area is in between systems to start on Wednesday with the remnants of a weak system still passing to the southeast and the incoming surface low pressure and trough moving in from the northwest. With the weak system lingering to the southeast, PoPs do remain across south-central Ohio Wednesday morning before additional thunderstorm development with the main system coming in from the west Wednesday evening. Severe threat Wednesday evening/night: As the weak system moves away, cloud cover should clear enough Wednesday afternoon to allow for plentiful heating across the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. The biggest uncertainty with the severe threat over the local area remains the timing of the best forcing Wednesday evening and into the overnight. Hot and humid conditions may be present over the local area Wednesday, but confidence is fairly high that storm coverage may be quite limited due to the lack of forcing. As thunderstorms form to the west late Wednesday afternoon and into the evening, how organized these storms remain as they enter the local area is the second bit of uncertainty. Wind shear values will increase as the trough approaches, but with instability decreasing, the threat likely decreases from west to east Wednesday night. Convective modes and potential solutions will be more readily available tomorrow as high-resolution models extend into the concerned timeframe. Thursday: As the trough slows over the Great Lakes, showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility into the afternoon on Thursday, but primarily southeast of the I-71 corridor. Severe threat is expected to be very low due to the lack of time for instability to build across the local area. Temperatures are a few degrees cooler Thursday afternoon with the cold front moving through, but the humidity difference will be felt Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday-Monday: After the brief break from the humid conditions Friday morning, the heat returns by Friday afternoon with the humidity building into the weekend. A deep ridge of high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley into the weekend, with temperatures climbing close to 90 on Saturday with higher confidence in 90s for Sunday and again on Monday. As the humidity returns, heat related advisories may be needed with the highest confidence for Sunday and Monday at this time. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Nearly stationary front remains draped across the southern FA near the Ohio River. Moderate instability has developed across the area with BL CAPES of 1000-1500 J/KG. Coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms increase from the southwest this evening and into the overnight hours as a mid level shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley. Pcpn chances will linger into Tuesday morning. With additional short wave energy moving into the area expect a diurnally driven increase in thunderstorm coverage later Tuesday afternoon. VFR cigs to prevail into this evening, but as the low levels moisten up, MVFR to occasional IFR cigs will develop late tonight and into Tuesday morning. Cigs will lift back into VFR through Tuesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday, with periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and visibilities. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...AR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 952 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 KYZ094>100-OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-072>074-078>082-088-180200- Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Union-Delaware- Madison-Franklin-Licking-Fayette-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross- Hocking-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 952 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio and southwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall. Localized flooding will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-052-180200- Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Miami-Champaign- 952 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. More organized thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday night. Some severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and large hail expected to be the primary threats at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ053-060>062-070-071-077- 180200- Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland- Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Clark-Preble-Montgomery- Greene-Butler-Warren-Hamilton- 952 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana, southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Some storms may produce heavy rainfall. Localized flooding will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. More organized thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday night. Some severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and large hail expected to be the primary threats at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
748 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025
OHZ071-170015-
Warren OH-
748 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WARREN
COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM EDT...
At 748 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Morrow, moving
northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds gusts up to 35 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
vegetation.
Locations impacted include...
Morrow, South Lebanon, Maineville, Butlerville, Pleasant Plain,
Murdock, State Route 123 at State Route 132, Fort Ancient, and
Middleboro.
This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 32 and 35.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3945 8413 3934 8400 3926 8415 3926 8417
3932 8425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 226DEG 15KT 3931 8418
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...35 MPH
NovakThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High water was reported near the intersection of Jasper and Bickett Roads.
High water was reported near the intersection of U.S. Route 42 and Rising Hills Drive.
High water was reported near the intersection of Welch and Lane Roads.
High water was reported near the intersection of State Route 762 and Coontz Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1255213, 1255215, 1255216, 1255217.