Hail in New Mexico, May 4, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
202 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 147 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

- Low to medium storm chances for southeast New Mexico this
  afternoon (30-60%). A couple of storms may be strong to severe.

- Higher storm chances (60-90%) Monday afternoon through the
  overnight hours, especially for the Permian Basin and Trans-
  Pecos regions. Severe storms expected (all modes possible), as
  well as the potential for some flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows our next weather system near
Southern California. This system will slowly move into Arizona later
this evening. As it does so, difluence within the upper-level flow
will increase. The lift associated with this, along with sufficient
low-level moisture (dewpoints in the 50s generally) will allow for a
few thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across southeast New
Mexico especially (40-60% chance). MUCAPE values up to 1000-1500
J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 kts suggests that a couple of
these storms are going to become strong/severe. Large hail and
damaging wind would be the primary concern, though a tornado cannot
be totally ruled out (particularly in the evening as the low-level
jet kicks up). Meanwhile, much of west Texas will experience breezy
conditions today, especially the southern Permian Basin and Trans-
Pecos regions. As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect until
tonight for these locations.

The upper-level trough continues to make its way through Arizona
towards New Mexico tomorrow. Meanwhile, a dryline sharpens up over
the western portions of the Permian Basin (roughly from Andrews down
to Fort Stockton, according to the HREF ensemble) and extends
towards the Big Bend. Lift associated with the approaching trough,
along with continued difluence aloft and convergence along the
dryline, will encourage the development of a few supercells that
afternoon. Once again, these storms would attempt to become severe
given MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 50-60 kts
(up to 70 kts locally). By the evening, a second round of storms is
expected to fire up off the retreating dryline as a 40-50 kt low-
level jet develops. These storms will quickly coalesce into a line,
and would continue to pose a large hail/damaging wind threat.
However, increasing low-level shear associated with the low-level
jet will result in an increased tornado threat with this second
round of storms. At this time, the highest storm chances look to be
for the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos regions (60-90% chance). Ample
moisture and the potential for heavy downpours suggests localized
flash flooding may be another concern. Otherwise, breezy conditions
will continue tomorrow as well.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

Once we get through the major storm system early this week, our
weather isn't looking all that bad. The upper trough will continue
to lift into the Plains Tuesday leaving our region in dry, westerly
flow. The only caveat would be a few showers across northern Eddy
and Lea counties as moisture wraps around the storm system. Winds
will be breezy Tuesday afternoon, but we expect plenty of
sunshine (outside of SE NM) with highs in the 70s/80s.

A blocking pattern will develop across CONUS through the rest of the
week helping to slow the progression of the upper trough. By Friday,
models only move the storm system to the Arklatex keeping our region
in northerly flow aloft all week. While this will most likely
keep us dry, it will also maintain below normal temperatures with
highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the 50s. Ridging may finally
build in early next week allowing temperatures to return to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

Generally VFR conditions through the rest of today. Gusty winds
continue through the afternoon, weakening at least somewhat later
tonight. A few thunderstorms are expected at/around CNM and HOB
this afternoon into the evening. A thunderstorm or two may form
near INK as well, but confidence is a bit too low to include in
the TAF. After midnight, low clouds will develop over the region,
bringing most sites (with possible exceptions of FST and PEQ) down
to MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  74  59  78 /  40  70 100  30
Carlsbad                 56  82  53  74 /  50  10  80  20
Dryden                   64  85  62  86 /  30  30  80  10
Fort Stockton            62  88  57  81 /  10  30  80  10
Guadalupe Pass           52  74  49  66 /  30  10  60  10
Hobbs                    55  79  51  71 /  60  40  90  20
Marfa                    50  81  49  72 /  10   0  40   0
Midland Intl Airport     62  81  58  77 /  30  60 100  20
Odessa                   62  81  58  76 /  30  50 100  10
Wink                     62  89  56  80 /  20  30  90  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for Central Brewster-Crane-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Ector-Loving-Midland-Pecos-Reeves
     County Plains-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...13