Tornadoes and Debris Flows in New Mexico, August 17 to 19, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
101 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

- High flash flood threat below recent burn scars through Tuesday.
  Flash Flood Watches are in effect for the northern Sacramento
  Mountains, including Ruidoso for today and Monday.

- The greatest coverage of storms through Tuesday will be across
  southern areas and also along and just east of the central
  mountain chain with isolated flash flooding possible daily
  through Tuesday. A few strong to severe storms are expected
  over northeast areas today through Tuesday.

- Decreasing storm coverage and rainfall intensity are now
  forecast Wednesday through Friday, when high temperatures will
  climb with areas of moderate heat risk developing at lower
  elevations, especially the Four Corners region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

High pressure is building back westward, closer to NM today with
the deepest monsoon moisture having stayed put over the
southeastern half of the state. This morning's CAMs continued to
target the northern Sacramentos with heavy, slow-moving cells
early in the afternoon with surface convergence pinpointed near
Ruidoso. A few more cells were depicted from this morning's model
runs in Chaves and Roosevelt counties where faint surface
convergence is found near some better return flow. Aside from
isolated flash flooding in these areas, minimal convective
activity is modeled through this evening before subsiding.

By Monday, the upper high will move over the NM-CO border,
strengthening to near 595 decameters. The upper flow would start
to turn more from northeast to southwest over areas with the best
moisture (southeastern half of NM), but winds aloft would still
remain very light. The low layer return flow over the
southeastern plains will be spreading northwestward with some
surface dewpoint gains, but a wide moisture gradient would still
persist with PWATs down to 0.5 inch in northwestern and many
northern zones, rising to 1.1 to 1.4 inch in south central to
southeastern NM. This will once again put a high risk for flooding
over the northern Sacramento burn scars for Monday, so another
Flash Flood Watch has been issued. Elsewhere, more convection
would be expected over the southwestern mountains Monday and also
along and east of the entire central mountain chain due to better
moist upslope flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The upper high will strengthen just north of the NM-CO border on
Tuesday with more moisture diffusely invading portions of
northwestern NM. A weak wind shift is still advertised to slide
down the central plains, offering a due easterly wind on the east
faces of the Sangre de Cristos. There would not be much
baroclinicity with this boundary, most of its momentum likely
emanating from the previous day's convection. While the flow
aloft will be very light, there will be notable directional shear
between the easterly surface winds and the north northeasterlies
aloft (NAM 0-6 km bulk shear of 25 kt). This could introduce some
strong to severe cells near and just east of the Sangre de Cristos
and some of the highlands farther south Tuesday afternoon and
evening. High POPs are in place over the northern Sacramentos for
Tuesday, but the steering flow toward the southwest might be
somewhat favorable to at least carry cells away from Ruidoso.

Into Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday the high will strengthen more
as it centers closer to the Four Corners and expands over
surrounding states. Heights are looking a bit higher with ensemble
means even pushing central 500 mb heights toward 598 decameters
each day. This will cause PWATs to become a bit more homogeneous,
ranging from 0.7 to 1.1 inch while high temperatures climb in more
subsident air. Isolated to scattered storms would favor the
central mountain chain and western high country Wednesday with
storm coverage reducing over the Sacramentos into Thursday and
Friday. The southwestward storm motion could open the door for
some of the northwestern plateau and west central zones to
receive some much needed rainfall Thursday, Friday, and Saturday,
as cells roll off of the CO San Juans, but the lower PWATs and
high surface dewpoint depressions will unfortunately reduce
rainfall efficacy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will be primarily focused over the south
central mountains (Sacramentos and Capitans) of New Mexico today
and also the southeastern plains with minimal activity elsewhere.
These storms will be slow moving and capable of heavy downpours.
Storms will die off this evening with storms forecast to redevelop
on Monday over the southwestern mountains and also along and east
of the central mountain chain of New Mexico. A stray strong to
severe storm with large hail and damaging downburst winds cannot
be ruled out in far northeastern New Mexico late Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

High pressure is moving closer to New Mexico today and will be
setting up and strengthening over the Four Corners and beyond by
the middle and latter part of the week. This will keep storms
focused over the southern and eastern halves of New Mexico through
Monday and Tuesday before temperatures start climbing and storms
dwindle and relocate farther northwest. Despite this northwestward
creep of storms, the surface relative humidity will remain very
low in northwestern zones through the week with afternoon readings
commonly dropping below 15-20 percent as temperatures repeatedly
max out 5 to 8 degrees above normal. This will make it difficult
to squeeze much appreciable rainfall in these northwestern and
west central areas, even when storms begin to tease the area late
in the week. This will keep a gusty outflow threat for these
higher based storms in northwestern to west central NM along with
some spotty dry lightning potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  94  60  96 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  48  90  49  91 /   0  10   5  20
Cuba............................  55  90  57  89 /   5  20  10  40
Gallup..........................  51  91  54  92 /   5  20   5  30
El Morro........................  55  85  56  86 /  10  30  20  40
Grants..........................  55  89  57  89 /  10  30  20  40
Quemado.........................  57  87  58  86 /  10  50  20  60
Magdalena.......................  62  86  62  86 /  10  50  30  60
Datil...........................  57  84  56  84 /  10  60  20  60
Reserve.........................  55  89  56  90 /  20  50  20  80
Glenwood........................  59  93  60  92 /  10  50  30  80
Chama...........................  50  84  50  84 /   0  20  10  40
Los Alamos......................  62  86  62  85 /   5  30  10  60
Pecos...........................  57  86  57  85 /  10  40  20  60
Cerro/Questa....................  54  84  54  83 /   5  30  10  50
Red River.......................  43  75  44  74 /  10  30  10  50
Angel Fire......................  37  78  38  77 /  10  40  10  60
Taos............................  53  87  55  86 /   5  30  10  40
Mora............................  52  80  51  79 /  10  50  20  60
Espanola........................  59  94  59  93 /   0  20  10  40
Santa Fe........................  61  87  61  86 /   5  30  20  50
Santa Fe Airport................  59  91  59  90 /   5  30  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  92  68  92 /   5  30  20  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  93  69  93 /   5  30  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  94  62  94 /   5  30  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  95  67  94 /   5  20  20  30
Belen...........................  65  95  65  95 /   5  30  20  20
Bernalillo......................  65  94  65  94 /   5  30  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  62  94  62  94 /   5  30  20  20
Corrales........................  65  95  65  95 /   5  30  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  63  94  64  94 /   5  30  20  20
Placitas........................  64  92  65  91 /   5  30  20  40
Rio Rancho......................  66  93  66  93 /   5  20  20  30
Socorro.........................  67  95  67  95 /  10  40  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  87  61  86 /   5  30  20  40
Tijeras.........................  63  88  62  87 /  10  40  20  50
Edgewood........................  58  88  58  88 /   5  40  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  89  54  89 /   5  40  20  40
Clines Corners..................  59  84  58  83 /  10  40  20  40
Mountainair.....................  59  87  58  87 /  10  50  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  58  85  58  86 /  20  60  20  50
Carrizozo.......................  63  86  63  88 /  30  70  30  50
Ruidoso.........................  58  78  53  80 /  30  80  30  70
Capulin.........................  53  84  55  82 /  10  40  20  40
Raton...........................  54  88  54  86 /  10  40  10  40
Springer........................  54  90  55  89 /  10  30  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  55  85  55  83 /  10  50  20  60
Clayton.........................  63  91  63  89 /  20  30  30  20
Roy.............................  59  88  59  86 /  10  30  20  30
Conchas.........................  65  95  65  93 /  10  30  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  62  91  62  90 /  10  30  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  64  92  63  90 /  10  20  30  10
Clovis..........................  67  93  67  94 /  20  30  30  20
Portales........................  66  93  67  94 /  30  40  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  66  93  66  92 /  10  20  30  20
Roswell.........................  69  96  70  96 /  30  30  30  20
Picacho.........................  62  89  63  89 /  30  60  30  40
Elk.............................  59  83  60  84 /  30  80  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52