Heavy rain during the middle of August resulted in minor river flooding along the Cedar River and on both Turtle and Dobbins Creeks.
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The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Heavy rain during the middle of August resulted in minor river flooding along the Cedar River and on both Turtle and Dobbins Creeks.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 12:43 PM CST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 143 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread heavy rain progresses from west to east overnight through Monday. An additional 0.5" to 1.5"+ is expected for much of the area. - Cooler and drier conditions return Tuesday and continue into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Today - Monday: Dry this Afternoon, Widespread Chances for Rain Returning Tonight The band of precipitation that dropped 5-8 inches overnight in some locations has finally dissipated with dry conditions present across the area. Low clouds will erode into the afternoon with high clouds likely sticking around into this evening. A surface low and MCV across the Dakotas, along with a perturbation in the crest of the ridge aloft, are setting off showers and storms across the Northern Plains this afternoon. All members of the 17.12Z HREF are indicating that these storms will grow upscale into a more MCS/linear type feature as they move east into the evening/overnight hours. The severe threat overall looks to be limited with a much more stable airmass overhead and strong capping in the low/mid levels. Some strong to potentially isolated damaging wind gusts, especially for areas west of the Mississippi, will be possible with ample DCAPE (1000+ J/kg) expected to be present. The 850 mb LLJ should keep the storms going through the overnight hours with plenty of moisture still available across the region. PWats are still expected to be in the 1.5-2"+ range into tonight which will allow for efficient rainfall production with these storms. This main line of storms looks to move into our area overnight, potentially continuing into the morning hours east of the Mississippi. The aforementioned surface low is expected to be in our vicinity through the day tomorrow, keeping our area in the warm sector. Depending on how well our area can destabilize into the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms would be possible given the low level synoptic lift near the triple point. Instability will be better further to the south and west across Iowa but the shear is expected to be weaker. Overall, nebulous mid level forcing and no real low level foci preclude an organized severe threat but enough confidence remains to keep our area in the Day 2 Marginal Risk for Severe Weather. QPF wise, the 17.12Z HREF grand ensemble is showing a broad 0.5-1.5 inches of rain across our area through 7 AM Tuesday. Confidence is a little lower on amounts greater than 1 inch with probabilities in the 20-40% range with some higher pockets. This seems to be a reasonable estimation though as per usual, localized higher amounts could be possible in the stronger storms with higher rainfall rates. Tuesday - End of the Week: Drier and Cooler By Tuesday, ridging is expected to become more prominent across the Rockies, putting our area in northwest flow aloft. The surface low is finally expected to make some more progress through the area with the attached cold front finally moving through late Monday into Tuesday. This will bring a cooler and drier airmass behind it as a surface high drops into the region. This should help to keep conditions dry through the end of the work-week. High temperatures through the week look to remain seasonable mild in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A dry cold front attached to a surface low well to our north across Ontario is expected to move through the area late Friday. Current forecasts have high temperatures for next weekend in the upper 60s to low 70s, almost a taste of early fall. This is still a ways out and there is plenty of time for the details to change but overall after a very soggy week or so, we'll finally see some reprieve for the back half of this upcoming work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 MVFR conditions are expected across much of the area through the TAF period with periods of brief IFR ceilings and VFR breaks in the clouds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to shift from west to east across the area tonight. As these storms move through, expect periods of IFR vsbys within the heavy rain fall. There is a chance (30 to 40%) for IFR ceilings behind the storms early Monday morning until daytime heating brings a return to MVFR by mid morning and VFR by the afternoon. There is a 20 to 30% chance MVFR ceilings linger through the day Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 A narrow band of training precipitation set up across our area overnight, extending from NW Mower County, MN all the way to SE Grant County, WI. Totals in this area ranged anywhere from 2-8 inches, with the highest totals across portions of Fillmore County, MN to Allamakee County, IA. This band of precipitation lasted for much of the night before finally dissipating through the morning hours as the low level jet tapered off. This comes in addition to the 2-6 inches that fell across portions of West Central Wisconsin a couple days ago. Many locations across the Coulee region are seeing ponding and remain susceptible to flooding from additional rainfall. With an additional 0.5-1.5+ inches expected from tonight/Mondays activity, this could exacerbate problems in some areas. Overall, this upcoming system looks to be more progressive in nature which will limit residence time over any given area but in some areas where FFGs are now below 0.5 inches, any rain could create concerns. Rivers have responded generally as expected across the region. Sharp rises at locations on the Cedar, Root, Yellow (IA), and Upper Iowa rivers have been noted from gauge observations. Overall, rises have stayed within their banks, only making it to action stage or just barely making it into minor flood stage before dropping back down. Looking at ensemble river forecasts, most rivers would need an additional 2+ inches to even break action stage which doesn't seem all that likely. The exception looks to be the Cedar River which could reach minor flood stage with a little between 1-1.5 inches. This river in particular will need to be monitored through tomorrow given its flashy nature and QPF well within reason for potentially reaching flood stage. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...Barendse AVIATION...JAW HYDROLOGY...Barendse
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse WI 454 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-181000- Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette- Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston- Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau- Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant- 454 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Storm chances increase overnight. Heavy rainfall rates with these storms will be capable of flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Widespread storms Monday linger in central Wisconsin Monday night. Heavy rainfall with these storms will be capable of flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... No action needed. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... No webinar is scheduled.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1011 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1010 AM Rain 4 SE Lansing 43.32N 91.16W
08/17/2025 E6.25 Inch Allamakee IA Public
&&
KBThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain during the middle of August allowed the Cedar River at Lansing to rise into flood stage during the afternoon on August 17th. The site crested at 18.33 ft in minor flood stage during the late afternoon on August 17th before falling below flood stage during the early evening that same day.
Heavy rain during the middle of August allowed the Turtle Creek at Austin to rise into flood stage during the morning on August 18th. The site crested at 11.54 ft in minor flood stage during the afternoon on August 18th before falling below flood stage during the early evening on August 19th.
Heavy rain during the middle of August allowed Dobbins Creek at Austin to rise into flood stage during the afternoon on August 18th. The site crested at 11.94 ft in minor flood stage during the afternoon on August 18th before falling below flood stage during the early evening that same day.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1289371, 1289372, 1289373.