During the morning and afternoon, widely scattered storms developed across portions of east central and northeast Kansas. Several downburst winds occurred, resulting in several downed trees, power lines, and small structures.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
During the morning and afternoon, widely scattered storms developed across portions of east central and northeast Kansas. Several downburst winds occurred, resulting in several downed trees, power lines, and small structures.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 19, 1:47 AM CST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 247 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms will be possible through the day today and into the evening. Confidence in where these storms develop is low and could be just about anywhere. - Some of the storms could be strong enough for an isolated damaging wind risk. Isolated heavy rain may be an issue too. - Dry conditions are forecast for Wednesday through the day Friday. A significant cool down is expected by Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 07Z water vapor placed the center of an upper low over the Four Corners region as the mean westerlies remained north over the Canadian plains. Radar reflectivity and profiler data suggested at least one if not two MCVs had developed over northwest KS. Surface wind obs suggested a weak boundary with modest convergence was located across the southern quarter of the forecast area or ruffly from Ottawa to Council Grove and Abilene. The forecast for today and this evening is going to be characterized by a conditionally unstable atmosphere with weak flow and forcing. So mesoscale analysis is going to be a big part of the forecast. Most of the operational solutions want to keep the weak boundary and subtle convergence over east central KS through the day. However some solutions advect the MCV more easterly while others take it more to the south. Based on current observations, think the better chances for showers and storms through the day today is along this weak boundary. However confidence is such that POPs are only in the 20 to 40 percent range as progs are fairly hit or miss on whether storms develop. Still the environment is progged to be moderately unstable with surface based CAPE values between 3000 and 4000 J/kg along the boundary. But shear is almost non-existent as 0-6km bulk shear values are only 10 to 15KT. Still the amount of instability could lead to an isolated damaging wind risk this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain could also end up being a problem given the weak winds. Storms may not want to move much. However they should become outflow dominant with the weak shear so storms may end up propagating off of the initialization point. It will be something to keep an eye on. For Wednesday through Friday, ensembles and operational solutions show a good signal for dry weather as surface ridging moves in. There isn't a lot of cold air advection with this ridge so temps are expected to only be slightly cooler. But cooler dewpoint temps should bring some relief from the humidity. Models show a cold front moving into the area Friday night as northwest flow aloft develops. There looks to be some chance for showers and storms with this boundary. The NBM is not that impressed with the boundary and only has some small POPs in the 20 to 30 percent range. Will wait to see if models come into better consensus with the front and precip chances before upping POPs. For Saturday through Monday, northwest flow is progged to set up with shortwave activity moving mainly through the Upper Midwest. This pattern is expected to bring surface ridging into the central plains along with cooler temperatures for the forecast area. The main question is how far southwest the surface ridge will push, because there is a signal for return flow from the southern plains into and over the cool high pressure that could generate precip. Cluster analysis is split between weaker and deeper shortwave activity through the Upper Midwest and where the warm air advection pattern sets up. So have stuck with the blended forecast. 00Z GFS and ECMWF have trended towards a stronger surface ridge pushing into the southern high plains, so the forecast may be a little overdone with POPs Monday morning. But there is still time for the ensembles to converge on a common solution so have not made any changes. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Latest surface analysis suggests there is a weak area of convergence across the southern parts of the forecast area with a weak southwesterly low level jet across northern OK and southern KS. A moisture axis with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s remains across northeast KS. An MCV over northwest KS is evident from radar and profiler data. Think the main focus for convection may end up just south and west of the terminals. where the weak boundary is, but confidence in this is low and convection is possible just about everywhere. Will opt to amend if storms become obvious rather than broad brush SH for the next 18 hrs. Outside if any precip, VFR conditions should prevail. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Wolters
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 412 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-200915- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 412 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central, north central, and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a marginal risk today and into the early evening for thunderstorms to produce damaging winds and heavy rain. Areas of east central Kansas are forecast to see a higher chance for severe storms, but thunderstorms could develop just about anywhere. The most likely timing for the stronger storms is during the afternoon and into the early evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should not be needed today or tonight. && More detailed information can be found at: www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf Wolters
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:10 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Roof blown off of shed and fencing blown down at a local co-op.
Power lines and poles downed. Damage to roofs and trees also reported.
Metal building damaged.
Several outbuildings destroyed.
Ten to 12 inch tree limbs down on the north side of town.
Large tree limbs down across Junction City.
Four to six inch tree limbs down around Fort Riley.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1275611, 1275613, 1275616, 1275617, 1275618, 1275619, 1275620.