Isolated thunderstorms developed along a dry line in northwest Illinois late Thursday afternoon and produced large hail in Henry, Whiteside and northern Bureau Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed along a dry line in northwest Illinois late Thursday afternoon and produced large hail in Henry, Whiteside and northern Bureau Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 12:17 PM CST, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 117 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A conditional threat for severe storms (level 2 of 5) remains this afternoon and early evening across northwest and north central Illinois. - Humid and breezy conditions today with near record highs, with most locations hitting the upper 80s to lower 90s. - Strong southwest winds are forecast on Friday, potentially peaking 40 - 45+ mph. - Active weather returns early next week, with widespread beneficial rain likely. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The forecast remains on track today with hot and humid conditions ahead of a cold front which is currently approaching the far western portion of the outlook area. A potent, negatively tilted trough will swing through the Upper Midwest today, and an unseasonably strong surface low (~980mb) nearly vertically stacked with the upper-low will shift through eastern South Dakota into far southeast North Dakota into this evening. This system will push a cold front through eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois through the mid to late afternoon, marking a SSE to WSW wind shift and significant drop in low-level moisture with dewpoints falling from the upper 60s/near 70 F down into the 50s. Ahead of the front, diurnal BL mixing will aid in pushing temperatures to near record highs as very warm air at 850mb (near 20 C) is adiabatically mixed down to the surface. This will yield highs in the low 90s for counties along and east of the Mississippi River. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms in the counties east and northeast of the Quad Cities, with a small area of an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) in eastern Stephenson County. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extends back to the west toward the Quad Cities. While the forecast environment is favorable for severe storms this afternoon due to high instability with MLCAPE of 2500+ J/kg and sufficient deep layer shear for storm organization, CAMs have continued to show relatively low areal coverage, although with a wide variance in solutions. The HRRR continues to be one of the least aggressive with CI in our outlook area, holding off development until either near or east of our eastern border. Other CAMs such as the NSSL/ARW/NAMnest develop scattered storms along and just east of the Mississippi River between 3 to 5 PM. And this is likely the worst case scenario for today -- scattered strong to severe storms impacting the eastern tier or two of counties during the late afternoon/early evening, before the activity quickly shifts to the east. The other possible scenario is for the area of low-level convergence along and slightly downstream of the surface front to progress far enough to the east through the afternoon that CI is primarily focused east of the outlook area during the late afternoon to early evening. As mentioned, the environmental setup is there to support severe storms, so any convection that does develop could quickly become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats, and an isolated tornado secondary. Dry conditions are expected overnight with lows in the 60s and 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Friday: Warm and windy conditions are expected with a much drier post-frontal air mass in place. The strong area of low pressure will remain positioned across west-central MN to southeast ND which will keep a tight pressure gradient over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Strong, gusty SW to WSW winds are forecast locally with peak values around 45 mph possible and a Wind Advisory may eventually be needed. Low-level moisture will be much lower than on Thursday, but with dewpoints in the mid 40s to lower 50s there may be enough instability during the afternoon to lead to high-based isolated showers and storms, which could locally enhance the winds to 50+ mph. Forecast soundings display MUCAPE of 500+ J/kg and DCAPE near 1200 J/kg. On a separate note, since significant green-up of vegetation and area grasses has already occurred this spring the fire weather threat should be muted. Nonetheless, given the strong gusty winds, dry conditions, and low afternoon humidity between 20-30%, burning is discouraged on Friday. Saturday - Sunday: Seasonable weather is forecast for the upcoming weekend with highs in the 60s across the north and 70s elsewhere. It will be breezy on Saturday with NW winds gusting around 30 mph. No precipitation is expected through Sunday evening. Next Week: Models are in good agreement on an active weather pattern setting up for the early to middle portion of next week with periods of widespread rainfall likely. NBM highs are in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered CU will affect all sites this afternoon but become less as the afternoon goes on, with few cirrus into the evening hours. Clear skies expected overnight and tomorrow. Bigger issue is the winds. south to southeast early this afternoon but becoming southwest for afternoon into the evening hours. Winds gusts this afternoon will reach up to around 30kts at all sites. Gusts decrease this evening, but even more for overnight hours. Gusty winds are expected again tomorrow with gusts over 25kts during the morning out of the southwest. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Record High Temperatures: May 15: KBRL: 93 / 1944 KCID: 94 / 1941 KDBQ: 90 / 1944 KMLI: 91 / 1941 Record Warm Low Temperatures: May 15: KDBQ: 67 / 2001 KMLI: 69 / 2001 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Uttech AVIATION...Auten CLIMATE...Gross
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 226 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-161930- Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson- Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson- Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll- Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson- Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark- 226 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening, but confidence remains low on development due to warm air aloft across the area. If storms form, they will quickly become severe east of a Galena, Illinois to Princeton, Illinois line. All modes of severe weather are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY Strong southwest winds are expected on Friday, gusting 35 to 45 mph. Isolated showers and storms are possible during the afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into the early evening east of the Mississippi River. GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY: To the northeast around 45 mph. ZU/DC
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 313 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-ILZ015-024-152315- Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson- Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson- Henry IA-Des Moines-Rock Island-Mercer- Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Clinton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Moline, Rock Island, and Aledo 313 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...Strong Southwest Winds into Early Evening... Strong winds are expected late this afternoon and evening behind a cold front. Wind gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph could lead to reduced visibilities from blowing dust, mainly in open and rural areas. Additionally, the strongest gusts could bring down small tree limbs and blow around loose objects. Drivers of vans, campers, trailers, and other high profile vehicles should be extra cautious as the strong winds will make for difficult travel conditions. Uttech
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 411 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ILZ001-002-007-009-016>018-025-026-160000- Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam- Henderson-Warren- Including the cities of Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Oquawka, and Monmouth 411 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...Strong Southwest Winds into Early Evening... Strong winds are expected late this afternoon and evening along and behind a cold front. Wind gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph could lead to reduced visibilities from blowing dust, mainly in open and rural areas. Additionally, the strongest gusts could bring down small tree limbs and blow around loose objects. Drivers of vans, campers, trailers, and other high profile vehicles should be extra cautious as the strong winds will make for difficult travel conditions. Uttech
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
449 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
ILZ001-002-152230-
Jo Daviess IL-Stephenson IL-
449 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Jo Daviess
and northwestern Stephenson Counties through 530 PM CDT...
At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Massbach, or 16 miles northwest of Mount Carroll, moving northeast at
45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Strong winds could break small tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lena, Stockton, Warren, Elizabeth, Woodbine, Winslow, Nora, Massbach,
Buena Vista, Waddams Grove, Canyon Camp, Lake Le-Aqua-
na State Park, Mc Connell, Apple River Canyon State Park, Stockton
Airport, Elmoville, and Jo Daviess County Fairgrounds.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois.
&&
LAT...LON 4244 8966 4220 9015 4227 9025 4251 9007
4251 8983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 223DEG 38KT 4230 9012
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
UttechThe Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 43 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:49 UTC.
5 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The 911 Dispatch Center reported powerlines down at the junction of Sand Road and Garden Plain Road south of Fulton. The time of the event was estimated using radar.
A trained spotter reported that mostly smaller hailstones had fallen but a few of the stones were quarter sized.
Galva City ESA reported a 52 knot thunderstorm wind gust.
A public reported shared via social media showing several hailstones estimated to be around golf ball sized. The time of the event was estimated using radar.
A trained spotter reported 2.00 inch hailstones caused damage to the house siding and windows, as well as cracking a vehicle wind shield. The time oft the event was estimated using radar.
A trained spotter reported that several hailstones were quarter size, some were perhaps bigger.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1259746, 1259740, 1259741, 1259748, 1259742, 1259743, 1259744.