A severe storm moved through western Illinois early in the morning March 28th. Large hail was reported near Aledo Illinois.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
A severe storm moved through western Illinois early in the morning March 28th. Large hail was reported near Aledo Illinois. A larger area of strong storms moved through Wisconsin and northeast Illinois that night.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 27, 11:43 PM CST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1243 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather late this evening/early Friday, with large hail the main hazard. - Warm and windy Friday, with near record highs and wind gusts nearing advisory levels. In addition, there is an elevated fire danger risk Friday afternoon. - Warm start to the weekend, then turning colder Sunday and into next week. - Active weather returns early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 921 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Evening showers and storms in the far south have waned, but the warm advection regime will continue to force scattered showers and high based thunderstorms tonight over the entire area. Short term guidance continues to suggest a "wing" of higher coverage showers/storms will work across the CWA from southwest to northeast after midnight. QPF probably will be very low given the small nature of storms, and fast movement northeast. That said, I've delayed pops on an update, but retained the chance 40% to likely 60% in the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Much of the shower activity has diminished, but still lingers in our far east and south attendant to a passing weak wave and a veered LLJ and elevated moisture transport. The westerly LLJ and moisture transport linger into this evening, thus we could keep festering a few showers particularly south this evening. Later this evening and especially overnight/early Friday, expect a burgeoning of showers and storms with the ramping LLJ atop a northward lifting surface warm front. Deep layer shear of 30+ kts and modest elevated instability in the growth zone will support a hail risk possibly to the size of quarters or a little larger in isolated instances, and we remain in a Marginal risk or level 1 out of 5 for severe weather from SPC. On Friday, any residual shower/storm activity should depart by mid morning as the surface warm front lifts north. We'll be thrust into the warm sector with a strong H85 southwesterly flow advecting in an anomalously warm airmass with temps around 16C (near the daily max for the day per SPC climatology). This combined with decreasing cloudiness/increasing solar insolation will boost temperatures into the mid 70s to lower 80s, which will be near high temp records for the day. Please see our climate section below. In addition, a strong pressure gradient combined with mixing down strong winds at the top of the mixed layer in the afternoon (40+ kts) will bring strong southwest winds gusting up to 45 mph at times. This is near wind advisory criteria, and may necessitate a headline. Also, the warm temps and windy conditions combined with the very dry fuels will bring elevated fire danger. GFDI values top out in the high to very high category for a few hours in the afternoon. We could need headlines for the fire danger as well. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Friday Night...Sub 997mb surface low to track from southern MN to northern MI and weaken. This combined with BL decoupling will allow the strong winds to subside. Showers and storms are favored mainly to our northwest along a cold front, but some weakening activity could move in late Friday night/early Saturday morning (20-30% chance) for areas north/west of the Quad Cities. It will be a rather mild night with lows only dropping into the 50s. Saturday and Sunday, despite 00z deterministic and ensemble model differences in surface low tracks, southwest flow aloft and warm 850mb temps will bring another warm and mostly dry day to the CWA on Saturday before fropa Saturday night. Highs in the upper 60s/low 70s are forecast. A strengthening LLJ and convergence along surface front Saturday night to support shower/storm activity across the MO RVR valley that tracks east across IA overnight in a weakening phase as it approaches the CWA. Still, some precipitation is expected to reach eastern IA early Sunday and with steep mid level lapse rates and 35-45kt deep layer shear can't rule out some cells producing some large hail/near-severe winds. As a result, SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather for most of the area on Saturday. Behind the fropa, much cooler temperatures and breezy north winds are expected Sunday. With the main front and baroclinic zone expected to our south and east, the severe risk has also shifted south out of our CWA. In fact, the ECMWF shift of tails for CAPE-Shear would suggest the area of concern would be southern MO/northeast AR and into the OH RVR valley on Sunday. So the main story Sunday will be some lingering showers in the AM, with CAA occurring making for a brisk day and challenging temperature forecast. Sunday Night, considerable uncertainties exist on whether or not enough moisture and forcing will remain with incoming cold air to produce any snow on the back side of the system. 12z deterministic ECMWF is suggesting a secondary deepening low rippling up to our east that would bring more moisture and an increased potential for at least light snow accums to portions of E Iowa and NW Illinois. Still a ways out but this potential is something to monitor. Early Next Week, broad upper level ridge and surface high to pass overhead bringing a period of dry and cooler conditions. Two upstream trofs to move across the Pacific northwest and western CONUS to induce another strong surface low to the lee of the Colorado Rockies late Tuesday and Wednesday bringing more precip chances, warmer temperatures, and strong winds to the Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 VFR conditions were observed as of TAF issuance at all local TAF terminals. We are expecting a warm front to lift northward later tonight, leading to increasing chances of thunderstorms early this morning. Confidence remains a bit low on the exact coverage of this activity, so used TEMPOs/PROB30 groups where confidence is higher/lower, respectively. If a storm did go over a terminal, there would likely be MVFR conditions with it. Outside of the convection, a period of low-level wind shear is also expected area-wide as a 35 to 45 knot southwesterly low- level jet strengthens tonight. Eventually, southwest winds at the surface are expected to increase after sunrise Friday due to mixing, with gusts ranging between 30 to 40 knots. There is a lower chance for some late morning showers for some locations. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Record High Temperatures: Friday March 28: KBRL: 84/1910 KCID: 81/1968 KDBQ: 78/1910 KMLI: 81/1910 Record High Minimum Temperatures: March 28: KMLI: 53/1879 March 29: KMLI: 60/1910 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && UPDATE...Ervin SHORT TERM...Gross/McClure LONG TERM...Gross/McClure AVIATION...Schultz CLIMATE...Gross
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 413 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-280915- Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson- Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson- Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll- Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson- Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark- 413 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT There is a Marginal risk, level 1 of 5, for severe weather late this evening and tonight, with lightning and large hail the main hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY On Friday, strong southwest winds are expected with gusts up to 45 mph possible. Additionally, very warm temperatures and dry vegetation will lead to an elevated grassland fire danger. There is a Marginal risk, level 1 of 5, for severe weather Saturday evening and night, with strong wind gusts and hail the main hazards. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday. Confidence remains low on the potential for severe storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed tonight. GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY: Toward the east-northeast around 35 MPH Gross
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1110 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
IAZ099-ILZ034-035-280445-
McDonough IL-Hancock IL-Lee IA-
1110 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
McDonough, central Hancock and south central Lee Counties through
1145 PM CDT...
At 1110 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hamilton, or near Keokuk, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Ferris and Carthage around 1115 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4037 9139 4048 9138 4053 9074 4028 9075
4028 9091 4029 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 272DEG 30KT 4042 9131
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
JTSSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 130 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 IAZ078-088-089-ILZ024>026-280715- Mercer IL-Warren IL-Henderson IL-Henry IA-Des Moines IA-Louisa IA- 130 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Mercer, west central Warren, northeastern Henderson, southeastern Henry, Des Moines and southeastern Louisa Counties through 215 AM CDT... At 130 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Danville, or 9 miles northwest of Burlington, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Oquawka, Kossuth, 4th Pumping Station Campground, West Burlington, Kingston, Big River State Forest, Mediapolis, Starr's Cave Park and Preserve, Sperry, Prairie Grove, Danville, Big Hollow Recreation Area, Pleasant Grove, Ogle, Dodgeville, Beaverdale, Keithsburg, Delabar State Park, Rozetta, and Bald Bluff. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 4079 9131 4096 9139 4115 9084 4091 9074 TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 250DEG 32KT 4091 9126 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH DC
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 217 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 IAZ078-089-ILZ024>026-280800- Mercer IL-Warren IL-Henderson IL-Des Moines IA-Louisa IA- 217 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 ...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central Mercer, northwestern Warren, northeastern Henderson, northeastern Des Moines and southeastern Louisa Counties through 300 AM CDT... At 217 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Oquawka to near Keithsburg. Movement was northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Oquawka, Aledo, 4th Pumping Station Campground, Kingston, Big River State Forest, Little York, Sunbeam, Ogle, Keithsburg, Delabar State Park, Bald Bluff, Seaton, Mercer County Fairgrounds, and Oakville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 4104 9063 4122 9070 4108 9109 4088 9107 TIME...MOT...LOC 0717Z 236DEG 22KT 4096 9102 4102 9096 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH DC
The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 45 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:23 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A lot of nickel to dime size hail was seen, with a few quarter size hail observed. The time was estimated from radar data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1243294.