A slow-moving cold front progressed across Illinois during the afternoon and evening of June 30th, 2025, interacting with a very moist, unstable airmass and resulting in clusters of thunderstorms. 5 inches.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
A slow-moving cold front progressed across Illinois during the afternoon and evening of June 30th, 2025, interacting with a very moist, unstable airmass and resulting in clusters of thunderstorms. Eventually, these clusters of storms grew into a slow-moving complex that produced heavy rain along and southeast of the I-70 corridor, with rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 3.5 inches. This resulted in a few instances of flash flooding. These areas of flooding persisted into the early morning hours of July 1st, 2025.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 6:51 PM CST, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 751 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will be scattered this evening south of I-72, with isolated damaging winds being the main concern. Locally heavy rainfall is also a threat near and south of I-70. - Somewhat drier air is anticipated from Tuesday through Thursday, with minimal precipitation chances. Hot and humid conditions return late in the week, with afternoon heat indices of 95 to 105 degrees each day Friday (July 4th) through Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 750 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Outflow boundary from late afternoon convection over the northern CWA has made it through Champaign and Decatur recently, with wind gusts 25-35 mph. It is converging on a group of storms trying to form near Shelbyville and Mattoon. Meanwhile, storms are becoming more numerous this hour in south central Illinois, and are lifting northeast. Latest iteration of the HRRR focuses the main convective threats over the southeast third of the forecast area this evening. PoP's have been increased to about 60-70% over this region (mainly near and south of I-70) through late evening. SPC mesoanalysis shows about 2.1 inches of precipitable water in south central Illinois, and 1-hourly radar rainfall estimates are not too far off from that level. With 1-hour flash flood guidance in that ballpark, will need to watch the water concerns over the next few hours. Further north, while radar mosaics are suggesting a fair amount of rain from about Burlington to Bloomington northward, ceilings in this area are around 10,000 feet and the rain is quite light, so thunder chances have been removed there. Geelhart && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 The main concern for this afternoon and evening is scattered thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front. A zone of lift is currently observed on satellite from northeastern MO through about Peoria to the south side of the Chicago metro area. Minimal capping is in place per the SPC mesoanalysis, however the sluggish speed of storm development demonstrates that at least some MLCIN still exists. Anticipate storm coverage and intensity to gradually increase through early this evening, becoming scattered along the boundary. DCAPE increases with eastward extent, and so does the likelihood for isolated strong to severe wind gusts occurring. Isolated severe wind gusts are most probable from 5-8 pm near and east of I-55. In addition, PWAT values from around 1.5 inches north of I-74 to near 2 inches south of I-70 may promote moderate to heavy rain rates with the storms that develop. Once the front makes its way through central Illinois this evening, look for somewhat drier air from Tuesday through Thursday along with high temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 80s, with little chance for precipitation. Late in the week (by Friday), anticipate heat and humidity to return as a mid-level ridge axis traverses the Midwest. Heat index values in excess of 100 F are anticipated for at least portions of the area, at least through Saturday, with perhaps some slight decrease in heat index values from Sunday into early next week. The pattern at that point places central Illinois north of a mid-level ridge over the southern Plains, with any small-scale disturbances moving through the flow perhaps able to touch off thunderstorms and rain. AAT && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Main aviation concerns will be in the first few hours of the forecast period, as showers and scattered thunderstorms push southward. Main thunder threat will be from KSPI-KCMI, with recent VCTS at KBMI now shifting further south. Some brief visibility drops to around 3SM will be possible with the stronger storms. Most of the rain should be out of the area by 04Z, and by sunrise, skies will largely be clear. Geelhart && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-011015- Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler- Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott- Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby- Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Heat indices will peak in the middle 90s this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening, with a few storms potentially becoming strong to severe. Isolated damaging wind gusts are a risk, along with frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Heat will build back into the area late this week. Heat indices are forecast to reach near 100 degrees Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will return on Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed between 4 pm and 10 pm. Expected storm motion is toward the east around 30 mph. 25/AAT
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1034 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1015 PM Rain 1 SW Newton 38.98N 88.17W
06/30/2025 M1.85 Inch Jasper IL Mesonet
Mostly since 9 pm. Mesonet station EW2373
Newton.
1015 PM Rain Effingham County Airpor 39.07N 88.53W
06/30/2025 M2.04 Inch Effingham IL AWOS
Since 9 pm.
1016 PM Rain Watson 39.02N 88.57W
06/30/2025 M2.67 Inch Effingham IL Mesonet
Mostly since 9 pm. Mesonet station FW0190
Watson.
&&
GeelhartThe Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:57 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was flowing over 300th Avenue on the north side of Mason. Flooding continued at this location into the early morning hours of July 1st, 2025, before dissipating.
Water reported over IL Route 1 between St. Francisville and Mt. Carmel. Other side streets also becoming inundated with water. Flooding continued in this location into the early morning hours of July 1st, 2025, before subsiding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1261533, 1261536.