What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 11:24 AM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 11:24 AM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1224 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm are expected to cross the area today
ahead of an approaching cold front. A few of these storms could
be severe. The front pushes thru tonight, and ushers in dry high
pressure for Tuesday. The high will settle off the Southeast
coast and keep warm southerly flow across the region, resulting
in well-above-normal temperatures through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1211 PM Monday: Update for Svr Tstm Watch thru 23Z for
northeast GA/Upstate SC, and row of zones along NC/SC border
including most of metro CLT. Been watching a line of tstms coming
east across northwest GA late this morning. Environment ahead
of this line continues to slowly destabilize with extensive
low cloudiness, but we have managed to develop 500-1000 J/kg of
sfc-based CAPE. Further gradual destabilization should get us into
the 1000-1500 range, which should be enough fuel to keep the line
going and perhaps support some transient supercell structures given
expected effective shear of 30-40kt thru late afternoon. The CAMs
don't seem super-pumped about our chances for a lot of severe
weather, but clearly there is organization to the west and the
environment should be sufficient to sustain the severe weather
threat thru the afternoon west-to-east. Note that a few tornadoes
are still possible, mainly in the vicinity of a weak remnant outflow
boundary from the morning convection that came across the mtns
and fizzled over the NC foothills. A few of the CAMs show brief
rotating cores mainly once the activity gets farther east toward
the Charlotte metro area. Slightly better low level shear/helicity
in the vicinity of this remnant boundary could be just enough to
support a brief tornado threat. Or, this could all still just remain
unimpressive should the renewed severe storms moving into western
metro ATL manage to race ahead and cut off our inflow. Temps have
been altered by the remnants of the morning convection, so some
tweaks are in order, but high temps are unchanged.
Otherwise...a mature sfc low will track across southern
Ontario/Quebec thru this afternoon, pulling a cold front across
the Ohio Valley over the course of the day. An MCS appears likely
to strengthen and be maintained across the Deep South, and this is
backed up by CAM consensus showing convection progressing across our
southern half in mid to late afternoon. Further north instability
may be more limited, and in particular some earlier HRRR runs seemed
to suggest the cold pool from the decayed early morning MCS would
have a stabilizing effect in the NC mountains/foothills. Damaging
winds--possibly from a linear or bowing segment with embedded
supercell structures--would be the primary threat today,
although enough instability will be present for hail with any
supercells. Low-level parameters support a tornado threat as well
although somewhat more marginal. Of note, most HRRR runs have
depicted a zone of stronger and more persistent updraft helicity
along the northern tier of SC and across the western Piedmont in
the late afternoon/early eve, maybe as the old outflow boundary
encountered by rotating elements of the line moving eastward.
Some showers appear likely to redevelop behind the primary line
of convection closer to the sfc front later in the afternoon or
evening, but the severe threat will probably drop off after the
southern line exits, most likely by 23z. NW flow showers also
may develop once wind shift occurs in the mountains. Temps are
expected to remain above freezing there, except possibly in the
highest elevations after precip diminishes near daybreak Tue. Mins
will remain a few degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
1) Dry weather returns Tuesday.
2) A chance of showers and above-normal temperatures Wednesday.
As of 210 AM Monday: An axis of sfc high pres extending from
Ontario will cross the forecast area Tuesday under building heights
aloft. The air mass will be fairly dry, with aftn RH returning
to the 25-35% range for much of the area. Temps will be about 5-8
deg above normal with light wind and sunny skies.
The high will shift east to Quebec and New England, with a
wedge-like ridge extending south into the Carolinas Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Guidance agrees that southerly flow atop the
wedge may produce widespread stratus by daybreak Wednesday, with
some elevated instability to support scattered showers thru the
day. The high will be transient, and the showery nature of precip
should result in the wedge struggling to hold thru the day. With
that said, the 00z guidance has trended cooler on temps, especially
near the Escarpment. The NBM may be struggling with this and looks
a bit too warm. So blended in the CONSAll for highs Wednesday. The
elevated CAPE may be enough for isolated general thunderstorms,
especially near the wedge front. The front will begin to lift north
and may produce additional showers Wednesday night. Lows will be
several deg above normal under cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages
1) Generally dry weather thru Saturday, as a strong ridge builds
across the Southeast
2) Temperatures warm to near record highs Friday and Saturday.
3) Rain chances may return Sunday with an approaching cold front.
As of 250 AM Monday: A strong upper ridge will build across
the Southeast Thursdsay thru Saturday, with a potential 594 dam
ridge at 500 mb just east of FL. This ridge will keep a front
and associated moisture largely west an dnorth of the forecast
area during this period. Have opted to go with the 6-hourly NBM
PoPs, which are lower than the regular NBM, given the expected
suppressing effects of the high. With that said, enough humidity
may be present for some diurnal instability and isolated to widely
scattered showers Thursday, with these PoPs being shunted north to
near the TN border Friday and Saturday. Highs will likely be in the
low to mid 80s Thursday, and mid to upper 80s Friday and Saturday
(possibly 90 around Charlotte). These will be near record highs
for all three of our climate sites (see Climate section below).
It may be optimistic, but the 00z guidance has come in showing
the ridge beginning to break down Sunday, allowing temps to not
be quite as warm and also bringing some rain chances back into
the forecast area. A low pressure system will track across the
southern Great Lakes and may bring a cold front thru the area
Sunday or Sunday night. PoPs ramp up to solid chc to low-end likely.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly IFR cigs over the Piedmont at
11z. KAVL will see predominantly MVFR. Ahead of an approaching cold
front, a line of decaying TSRA will be near KAVL in the first couple
hrs of the period and some SHRA could survive to KHKY. PROB30 at
KAVL and VCSH at KHKY for this activity. Cigs will slowly lift late
morning to midday. A second band of TSRA will develop in AL/GA by
late morning and will propagate into western NC/SC by early aftn,
prompting TEMPOs at all sites for TSRA and MVFR to IFR vsby/cigs. A
risk of damaging winds and possibly 1-2" hail will accompany these
storms. A few SHRA may redevelop following the TSRA with lesser
impacts. Winds will be gusty 15-25 kt from the SSW to SW until early
evening, then shift to NW with passage of front. Redevelopment of
MVFR cig can't be ruled out at KAVL after 06z.
Outlook: Drying and VFR expected on Tuesday. Small chance of
showers and associated restrictions Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1963 31 1936 64 1946 23 1936
KCLT 90 1946 42 1915 62 1986 26 2021
1946
KGSP 87 1967 44 1901 62 2014 27 2021
1963 1993
1946 1902
RECORDS FOR 04-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 83 1999 33 1891 61 1893 22 1936
1978
KCLT 87 1999 43 1911 63 1986 29 1936
1899 1945
1934
KGSP 88 1963 44 1936 62 1999 25 1975
1934
RECORDS FOR 04-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1909 30 1891 60 2023 20 1944
1910
KCLT 88 1942 38 1891 62 1910 26 1891
KGSP 90 1934 43 1899 60 2023 25 1904
1888
RECORDS FOR 04-06
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1967 36 1950 64 2023 22 1898
KCLT 90 2010 43 1931 67 2023 28 1891
1929
KGSP 88 2010 47 1950 65 2023 26 1904
1945
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...Wimberley
CLIMATE...Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 4:08 AM EST, 9 hours 34 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
508 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-010915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
508 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will
cross the area from west to east late this morning through the
afternoon. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with
damaging winds being the main threat. Also large hail and isolated
tornadoes will be possible, especially across the Piedmont.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Mar 31, 11:38 AM EST, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1238 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
NCZ051-058-062-311715-
Graham NC-Swain NC-Macon NC-
1238 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MACON...SOUTH
CENTRAL SWAIN AND CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...
At 1238 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Robbinsville, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Wesser, Stecoah, Smoky Mountains-Deep Creek, Kyle, Nantahala, Lake
Santeetlah, Cheoah, Cowee, Luada, and Almond.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3552 8340 3525 8331 3521 8368 3520 8372
3520 8373 3523 8369 3524 8369 3526 8371
3524 8375 3526 8379 3525 8381 3525 8385
3524 8387 3535 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 254DEG 33KT 3529 8379
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Mar 31, 12:27 PM EST, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
127 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ062-SCZ101-104-311800-
Franklin GA-Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Macon NC-
Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
127 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...WESTERN
STEPHENS...HABERSHAM...RABUN...SOUTHERN MACON AND WEST CENTRAL OCONEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...
At 127 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles northeast of Hiawassee to 15 miles east
of Blairsville to 8 miles north of Gainesville. Movement was east at
40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Mountain City, Franklin, Long Creek, Tiger, Cornelia, Lake Burton,
Scaly Mountain, Sky Valley, Alto, and Tallulah Gorge State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northeastern Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3491 8363 3494 8360 3495 8355 3499 8355
3500 8348 3500 8352 3510 8360 3524 8323
3524 8322 3498 8318 3441 8333 3440 8338
3446 8340 3449 8353 3443 8362 3450 8367
3454 8362 3465 8366 3474 8362 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 249DEG 36KT 3498 8370 3483 8368 3440 8379
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Mar 31, 12:45 PM EST, 57 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
145 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
NCZ048-052-053-059-311815-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Madison NC-Northern Jackson NC-
145 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL MADISON...WESTERN BUNCOMBE AND CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES
THROUGH 215 PM EDT...
At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Waynesville, or near Maggie Valley, moving east at
40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Candler, Lake Junaluska, Leicester, Waynesville, Maggie Valley, Cove
Creek, Clyde, West Asheville, Canto, and Balsam.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3553 8255 3540 8311 3554 8317 3556 8316
3558 8318 3579 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 249DEG 36KT 3553 8307
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Mar 31, 12:55 PM EST, 47 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
NCZ052-059-062>064-311830-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Southern Jackson NC-Northern Jackson NC-
Macon NC-
155 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MACON...CENTRAL
TRANSYLVANIA...CENTRAL JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...
At 155 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Franklin, or 6 miles southwest of Cullowhee,
moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Graveyard Fields, Ellijay, Savannah, Tuckasegee, Balsam Grove, Cruso,
Wolf Mountain, Lake Glenville, Looking Glass, and B.R. Parkway-Black
Balsam To Mount Pisgah.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3511 8327 3529 8335 3549 8282 3524 8271
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 249DEG 36KT 3523 8323
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Mar 31, 1:02 PM EST, 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
202 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
GAZ010-017-018-026-SCZ101-104-311845-
Franklin GA-Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
202 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...STEPHENS...EASTERN
HABERSHAM...CENTRAL RABUN AND CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...
At 202 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Clayton to near Toccoa to 3 miles north of
Commerce. Movement was east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Westminster, Long Creek, Carnesville, Avalon, Gumlog, Tiger, Canon,
Tallulah Gorge State Park, Victoria Bryant State Park, and Lake
Rabun.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northeastern Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3426 8334 3432 8339 3443 8338 3446 8340
3448 8347 3449 8352 3459 8348 3488 8348
3502 8302 3449 8305 3441 8310 3428 8310
3424 8317 3425 8320 3424 8325 3426 8330
3423 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 249DEG 35KT 3487 8336 3458 8335 3427 8347
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TWSpecial weather statement, Mar 31, 1:15 PM EST, 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
215 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
NCZ048>050-052-053-059-063>065-311845-
Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Henderson NC-
Southern Jackson NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-Northern Jackson NC-
215 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...CENTRAL MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...BUNCOMBE...SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD AND YANCEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...
At 215 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Marshall to 11 miles west of
Downtown Asheville to 17 miles southeast of Franklin. Movement was
northeast at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Buladean, East Asheville, Green Mountain, Flat Creek, West Asheville,
Poplar, Marshall, B.R. Parkway-Nc Arboretum To East Asheville,
Burnsville, and Biltmore Forest.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3614 8218 3615 8215 3595 8222 3531 8264
3501 8312 3505 8315 3594 8270 3600 8262
3597 8261 3595 8257 3598 8251 3601 8246
3608 8241 3612 8236 3614 8229 3613 8225
3616 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 229DEG 52KT 3593 8262 3558 8276 3507 8310
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWH