A surface front was nudged southward across the local area through the day as high pressure strengthened north of the region. The front combined with high moisture, weak storm motion and diurnal instability with additional sea breeze forcing produced localized heavy rainfall across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A surface front was nudged southward across the local area through the day as high pressure strengthened north of the region. The front combined with high moisture, weak storm motion and diurnal instability with additional sea breeze forcing produced localized heavy rainfall across the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 18, 11:32 AM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1232 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
...POWERFUL OCEAN SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN ARRIVE AT
AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE
AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Noon surface analysis depicts a weakening trough over our area,
while strong high pressure (1029 millibars) centered southeast of
Hudson Bay, Canada was pushing a "backdoor" cold front across the
Carolinas. Meanwhile, the eye of Category 4 Hurricane Erin
was located about 835 miles to the southeast of Jacksonville as of
15Z, with this strengthening and expanding major hurricane moving
slowly west-northwestward. Aloft..."Heat Wave" ridging extends
from the Tennessee Valley southwestward across the Southern Plains
states, while a weak, cutoff mid-level trough remains in place
over our area. Otherwise, a longwave trough was progressing
eastward across New England and Atlantic Canada. Latest GOES-East
derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a slightly
drier air mass has advected over locations near the Altamaha and
Alapaha Rivers in southeast GA, where PWATs have fallen to around
1.8 inches, while deep tropical moisture, featuring PWAT values of
2 - 2.25 inches, remains in place elsewhere across our area. Low
level east-northeasterly flow increased coastal convergence this
morning, developing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
along the Atlantic coastal counties. Convective outflows from this
morning activity were slowly pushing this scattered activity
inland along the I-95 corridor early this afternoon. A healthy
cumulus field has developed inland, where temperatures were
soaring into the mid and upper 80s as of 16Z, with dewpoints in
the 70s bringing heat index values to the 95-100 range.
Temperatures remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s at coastal
locations that were impacted by showers this morning.
A drier air mass will filter into interior portions of southeast
GA this afternoon, mainly for locations north and west of
Waycross, where only isolated to widely scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are possible through sunset. Scattered
convection along the I-95 corridor will migrate westward and will
likely increase in coverage and intensity as activity encounters
an increasingly unstable air mass, especially for locations closer
to the lingering surface trough across north central FL, the
Suwannee Valley and inland portions of northeast FL. Brisk east-
northeasterly steering flow will likely keep activity moving at a
15-20 mph clip, which should limit localized flooding concerns. A
few thunderstorms over north central FL and the Suwannee Valley
may pulse later this afternoon and become strong, with an isolated
wet microburst possible given the deep tropical moisture in place
that could create downburst winds of 40-50 mph, along with
frequent lightning strikes and briefly torrential downpours. Highs
this afternoon will generally climb to the upper 80s and lower
90s, with maximum heat index values of 100-105 degrees for
locations south and east of Waycross.
A drier air mass will filter southward into our region tonight as
subsidence on the outer periphery of Erin's large circulation
begins to enter our area. High pressure building into New England
will begin to tighten our local pressure gradient after midnight
tonight, with a light onshore breeze at coastal locations
potentially bringing an isolated shower onshore towards sunrise,
mainly along the northeast FL coast. These onshore winds will
likely keep coastal lows in the upper 70s to around 80, while
decoupling winds and fair skies inland should allow lows to fall
to the low and mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
High pressure will build down the southeastern US coast Tuesday
while Hurricane Erin passes northward offshore, this will lower
precipitation chances across the area. Most of southeast Georgia
will only see isolated to scattered coverage with drier air
infiltrates in, with some higher chances over northeast Florida
where sea breezes interact. Breezy onshore winds will keep the
coast in the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday, with inland highs in the
lower 90s. Wednesday, winds will shift more northerly allowing
high temperatures to reach the low 90s at the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Precipitation chances will begin to increase Thursday through the
weekend as a front pushes southward, then stalls over the area
Friday through Sunday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the area each afternoon and evening.
It'll be hot Thursday with highs reaching the mid 90s inland, then
temperatures will trend down near normal with increased cloud and
storm coverage Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 801 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Showers developing along the Atlantic coast early this morning
will tend to increase in coverage and intensity as activity
migrates slowly inland towards the Interstate 95 corridor before
15Z. Embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop within this
activity towards 15Z along the southeast GA coast, and we added
a TEMPO group for IFR visibilities to the SSI TAF through around
18Z, with TEMPO groups added this afternoon at the northeast FL
terminals for brief wind gusts around 30 knots and MVFR
visibilities during heavier downpours. Convection should shift
west of the SSI terminal by 20Z, with VFR conditions then
prevailing thereafter. Convection will shift to the west of the
Duval County terminals and SGJ before 23Z and west of the GNV
terminal by 01Z, with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter.
Periods of IFR visibilities are likely at VQQ during the predawn
hours on Tuesday. Light north-northwesterly surface winds early
this morning will shift to northeasterly by 15Z, with speeds
increasing to 5-10 knots before 16Z and will then shift to east-
northeasterly by 18Z, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots by
19Z. Speeds will gradually diminish at the regional terminals
after 23Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Weak troughing situated over the northeast Florida waters will
shift southward tonight as high pressure builds over New England
and wedges down the southeastern seaboard. This trough will
increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the near
shore waters this morning, with a few waterspouts possible.
Meanwhile, Major Hurricane Erin will turn northwestward today and
northward on Tuesday, remaining well to the east of the Gulf
Stream adjacent to our local waters. Seas will build to the 3-5
foot range this afternoon both near shore and offshore. Powerful
ocean swells will enter our local waters tonight, with Small
Craft Advisory conditions beginning offshore this evening and near
shore after midnight. Seas will build to 6-8 feet offshore after
midnight and to Caution levels of 4-6 feet near shore this
evening, building further to 5-7 feet during the predawn hours on
Tuesday.
Breezy onshore winds and elevated, rough seas are expected on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Caution level speeds of 15-20 knots are
forecast throughout our local waters from Tuesday through
Wednesday evening. Winds will then shift to northwesterly and
then westerly on Wednesday night and northerly on Thursday as
Erin turns north-northeastward off the U.S. eastern seaboard. Seas
will peak in the 8-11 foot range near shore on Wednesday and
Wednesday night, while seas offshore peak in the 11-14 foot range
on Wednesday. Seas are expected to fall below Small Craft
Advisory levels near shore on Friday morning, while seas offshore
gradually subside late on Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will likely increase in coverage on Friday as a frontal boundary
stalls over our region.
Rip Currents / Beach Erosion: Powerful swells from distant
Hurricane Erin are currently arriving at area beaches this
morning, with offshore buoys detecting swell periods in the 13-15
second range. Breakers will gradually build to the 2-4 foot range
this afternoon and evening at the northeast FL beaches and 1-3
feet at the southeast GA beaches. Long period swells and breezy
onshore winds developing this afternoon will create a high rip
current risk at all area beaches. Deadly surf conditions will
begin on Tuesday all along our coast, with breaker heights
building to 6-8 feet by the afternoon hours at the northeast FL
beaches and 4-6 feet for the southeast GA beaches. A High Surf
Advisory will likely be issued for the northeast FL beaches from
Tuesday through at least Thursday night, with breakers peaking in
the 9-11 foot range on Wednesday. Breakers will peak near High
Surf Advisory criteria (7 feet) at the southeast GA beaches on
Wednesday. Minor beach erosion is likely around the time of the
late afternoon / early evening high tide at area beaches on
Tuesday, with moderate beach erosion possible during the early
Wednesday evening high tide. Minor beach erosion will be possible
during the early evening high tide on Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
East-northeasterly surface and transport winds will slowly
strengthen this afternoon, with breezy surface winds developing at
coastal locations. A drier air mass and elevated mixing heights
will yield good daytime dispersion values this afternoon for
locations north of Waycross, while fair values prevail elsewhere.
Breezy northeasterly surface and transport winds are expected to
develop by Tuesday afternoon, creating good daytime dispersion
values area-wide, with marginally high values possible at inland
locations. Surface and transport winds will then shift to
northerly by Wednesday afternoon, with breezy conditions
continuing and yielding good daytime dispersion values once again,
with marginally high values possible at inland locations. Surface
and transport winds will then shift to northwesterly by Thursday
morning, with speeds gradually diminishing area-wide.
&&
.HYDROLOGY / COASTAL FLOODING...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Minor flooding will continue through this evening along upper
portions of the Altamaha River near the gauge at Baxley. Water
levels near this gauge are forecast to fall below flood stage
after midnight tonight.
Latest PETSS and ETSS guidance indicated minor flood inundation
possible around high tides all along the Atlantic coast during
the Wednesday and Thursday early evening high tides - about 1.8 to
2 feet above MHHW/AGL datum. The NNE wind fetch will bring lower
tidal flood risk to the St. Johns Basin, but southern sections
south of the river basin from the Buckman Bridge southward toward
Racy Point and Dunns Creek could have inundation of 1-1.5 feet
above MHHW/AGL given northerly wind fetch. At this time, the above
forecast values would support a Coastal Flood Advisory to
possibly be issued Wednesday and Thursday for minor, nuisance
flooding in normally tidal flood prone areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 93 71 93 73 / 30 10 10 0
SSI 89 77 89 77 / 50 10 20 20
JAX 90 76 92 75 / 70 20 30 20
SGJ 89 78 88 78 / 70 20 40 30
GNV 92 74 93 74 / 70 30 40 10
OCF 92 74 93 74 / 70 40 50 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
AMZ450-452-454.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
Thursday night for AMZ470-472-474.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A personal weather station Roberts Suburban Farm - KGAKINGS108 reported 4 inches of rainfall. Rain began around 1250 PM EDT. Surrounding sites measured 2 to 4 inches.
Private Weather Station Roberts Suburban Farm - KGAKINGS108 reported 2.07 inches of rainfall in the past hour.
Flooding was reported in known poor drainage areas in the Kingsland area including Kingsland City Hall and at the intersection of Kings Bay Rd and E King Ave.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1285307, 1285306, 1285305.