A retreating surface boundary south of the area, ample available moisture, and diurnal heating permitted a strong thunderstorm to develop in southern Broward County on the 16th of September.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
A retreating surface boundary south of the area, ample available moisture, and diurnal heating permitted a strong thunderstorm to develop in southern Broward County on the 16th of September.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 16, 12:50 PM EST, 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 150 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 No major changes to the forecast with the afternoon package. PWAT observations from ACARS at MIA/FLL/PBI are running a little behind the originally forecast values (1.6-1.7 inches versus the forecast 1.9-2.0 inches), but satellite imagery shows a moister airmass gradually progressing northward over the region, which will enable the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will improve shortly after nightfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 A pattern change is ahead for South Florida, and today will serve as the bridge between the brief respite of dry weather we have experienced over the last two days and a wetter, more impactful pattern during the second half of the work week. All things must come to an end, and the drier air aloft that has suppressed convective activity will wane in influence and scope across the our area starting today. Zooming out and taking a big picture look at the synoptic features in play, an expansive sprawling cut- off low currently over the southeastern United States will remain stationary today, effectively blocked by persistent mid-level ridging to the east over the western Atlantic waters. An associated weak surface low just to the east of the mid-level cut off low is forecast to gradually move onshore across coastal North Carolina later today. This distant surface low is worth mentioning as it still remains attached to a weak stalled out frontal boundary that we dealt with last week, with the boundary still remaining elongated from the far offshore western Atlantic waters into the Florida Straits early this morning. While South Florida will still remain to the north of the stalled frontal boundary over the Florida Straits, the uptick in atmospheric moisture across the region should correlate with higher spatial and temporal coverage of showers and storms during the afternoon hours today (40-60%) as opposed to the more sparse coverage experienced yesterday. Area-wide precipitable water values will increase back into the 1.9 to 2.1 range by this afternoon which is above climatological norms and near the 90th percentile for the date. Even with moisture return in the mid-levels of the atmosphere today, there will still be enough residual mid-level dry air to support the potential of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm during the afternoon and early evening storms. The main threat will once again be the potential of an isolated strong (45 to 55 mph) to marginally severe wind gust. The greatest coverage of showers and storms is once again expected across inland areas as that is where sea-breeze and outflow boundaries are forecast to converge during the mid to late afternoon hour. High temperatures will once again reach the upper 80s to low 90s with sharp temperature fluctuations possible in and around shower and thunderstorm activity. By Wednesday, the aforementioned cut-off low will begin a slow acceleration to the northeast out ahead of the next longwave trough pushing eastward across the central United States. At the same time, an upper level jet streak will develop across the southeastern United States (including northern Florida and the Gulf) which will place South Florida in an area of enhanced low-level convergence (right entrance region). This synoptic boost of ascent will combine with deeper moisture across the region and kick off the beginning of an active period for our area. The surface low meandering across coastal North Carolina will gradually lift northwestward, dragging that pesky frontal boundary over the Florida Straits back northwards (pseudo warm front?) into our area. As the front arrives back over South Florida, even deeper moisture and low level ascent is forecast to make a return to the region with the continuance of an increasing trend in precipitable water values. Maximum daily rain chances increase to the 60-80% range Wednesday. Forecast model guidance once again depicts the potential of a saturated atmosphere over South Florida with precipitable water values in the 2.1 to 2.3 inch range (now over the the 90th percentile for September 17th). A saturated atmosphere brings an increased threat of heavy rainfall that could result in accumulations adding up over a short period of time. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the east coast metro areas of South Florida in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive flooding on Wednesday. This means that there is a 5-15% chance of excessive rainfall that may lead to flash flooding within a 25 mile radius of a location. High temperatures will trend lower on Wednesday due to abundant cloud cover and the cooling influences of showers and storms, forecasted highs area-wide will be in the middle to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 With the background environment conducive for heavy rainfall, the main driving force behind rainfall accumulations will be the coverage and storm motion of showers and storms across the region during the second half of the week. Overnight model guidance continues to hone in on Thursday being the day with the greatest potential of seeing higher end QPF values as the aforementioned jet- streak nearby and the stalled boundary directly overhead act to provide favorable conditions for numerous showers and storms. The deterministic GFS and Euro continue to hint at a lobe of mid-level vorticity pivoting across South Florida on Thursday with forecasted precipitable water values potentially increasing to the 2.2 to 2.4 range which would be very close to the daily max value for the date. Forecast model soundings during this time frame continue to depict a classic skinny CAPE profile that points to the potential of efficient rainfall rates that could lead to localized flooding concerns over urban metro areas. ECENS and GEFS ensemble guidance suites depict a higher QPF signal across the east half of the region on Thursday which coincides with the return and stall of the frontal boundary. WPC cluster analysis also highlights a heavy rainfall threat across the eastern half of the region during this time frame. The Weather Prediction Center also maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the east coast of South Florida on Thursday. With the abundance of convective activity and resultant cloud debris, high temperatures may be held in check once again on Thursday with forecast highs in the low to mid 80s. Forecast guidance keeps the stalled frontal boundary in place over South Florida Friday which will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. However by the weekend, a notable shift on the latest forecast models has occurred as they now depict the potential of an area of low pressure developing along the boundary in the western Atlantic. Cyclonic flow around this developing feature may result in the potential of drier air moving southward across the peninsula which may limit rain chances during the weekend as opposed to the mid to late work week. Uncertainty remains regarding this solution however, and forecast rainfall totals on Saturday and Sunday currently remain near climatological norms in the 50-60% range. The lessening of mid-level flow aloft will once again result in sea-breeze circulations remaining the main foci of diurnal convection each afternoon and evening which will likely focus the greatest convective chances across interior areas each afternoon during the weekend. High temperatures on Friday through early next week will reach the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions could be possible early this afternoon as convection begins to develop across South Florida. Added TEMPOs for all East Coast terminals through 20Z, when activity is forecast to drift inland, but keeping the VCTS through 00Z to account for any outflow boundary development back towards the terminals. There is a slight signal of convection developing late overnight into early Wednesday morning, but confidence is too low at this time to add it to the TAFs. Generally easterly winds prevail along the East Coast today, with the Gulf Breeze kicking in at KAPF. Light and variable winds overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 A moderate easterly breeze will enhance later today and continue into the mid week period. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 5 feet through Thursday morning while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 1 to 2 feet. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds will be possible each day near the most robust shower and thunderstorm activity. && .BEACHES... Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue along the Palm Beach County beaches today as onshore flow enhances this afternoon and a northeasterly swell in the Atlantic waters lingers. The high risk of rip current risk will continue and potentially expand further south across the east coast by mid-week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 87 76 85 / 50 70 70 80 West Kendall 76 87 75 85 / 50 70 70 80 Opa-Locka 77 88 76 87 / 50 70 70 80 Homestead 76 86 75 85 / 50 70 70 80 Fort Lauderdale 77 86 75 85 / 50 70 70 80 N Ft Lauderdale 77 86 77 85 / 50 70 70 80 Pembroke Pines 77 89 76 88 / 50 70 70 80 West Palm Beach 77 86 75 84 / 50 70 60 70 Boca Raton 76 88 75 87 / 50 70 70 70 Naples 76 88 74 87 / 40 70 40 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....Hadi AVIATION...ATV
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
230 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
FLZ072-074-172-173-161900-
Coastal Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
230 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
and southern Broward Counties through 300 PM EDT...
At 230 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Miami Gardens, moving southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar,
Davie, Miami Beach, Surfside, Hallandale, Miami Gardens, North Miami,
North Miami Beach, Aventura, Dania Beach, Miami Lakes, Cooper City,
Sunny Isles Beach, Opa-Locka, and West Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 2589 8012 2586 8012 2585 8014 2587 8014
2588 8016 2586 8018 2585 8016 2585 8018
2584 8018 2581 8029 2605 8037 2609 8023
2609 8015 2603 8012 2602 8013 2601 8011
2590 8013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 328DEG 10KT 2596 8026
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CWCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
235 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
FLZ073-074-173-161900-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
235 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through 300 PM EDT...
At 235 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Country Walk, or near The Redland, moving
northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
The Redland, Kendall, Pinecrest, Richmond West, Richmond Heights,
Country Walk, Kendale Lakes, Palmetto Bay, Cutler Bay, Zoo Miami,
Goulds, The Hammocks, West Perrine, Princeton, West Kendall,
Intersection Krome And Kendall Drive, The Crossings, Naranja,
Tamiami, and The Falls.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2557 8031 2549 8049 2564 8061 2577 8044
2562 8030 2561 8031 2559 8031 2558 8030
2557 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 236DEG 9KT 2563 8048
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CWCThe Miami radar (KAMX), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:46 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
ASOS station KHWO at North Perry Airport in Pembroke Pines reported a wind gust of 52 KTS/60 MPH associated with a strong thunderstorm. Station elevation is 7 ft.
Miramar Police reports a fallen tree is obstructing a lane at the intersection of Pembroke Road and 62nd Ave, in relation to a strong thunderstorm that moved over the area earlier in the afternoon.
Broward County Sheriffs Office reports all lanes of SR-848 at SW 35th Ave are closed due to downed powerline in Hollywood in relation to a strong thunderstorm that moved over the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1295554, 1295556, 1295555.