Southwest steering flow over a moist and diurnally unstable airmass triggered a few strong thunderstorms along inland progressing sea breezes.
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The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Southwest steering flow over a moist and diurnally unstable airmass triggered a few strong thunderstorms along inland progressing sea breezes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 14, 8:06 AM EST, 3 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 906 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 900 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Surface high pressure will be east of the region Today. The upper high pressure ridge will be centered just to the southeast. The resultant flow will be from the south southwest. The east coast sea breeze will likely struggle to get much past I95 Today. Convection will develop across the area with diurnal heating this afternoon. The flow will push this activity to the east northeast, with the east coast sea breeze acting as a focus for a greater coverage of precipitation later in the day over eastern areas. The greatest chance for strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall Today will be over eastern counties due to the interactions with the sea breeze. Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Similar to yesterday morning, mid and high level clouds along the east coast are dispersing northeastward this morning with isolated showers and T'storms lingering across north central and central FL where low level convergence along a weak trough continues to feed a few T'storms. This activity will end during the next couple of hours. Patchy, shallow ground fog is possible where locally heavy rainfall amounts occurred yesterday, but no significant fog is expected. Near to slightly above average temperatures in the low to mid 70s will persist through sunrise. As Bermuda ridge axis sinks south of the area today, a more SW flow pattern will bring in some shortwave energy aloft ahead of weak troughing over the lower and mid MS valley. This extra energy when combined with well above seasonal PWATS 1.8-2.2 inches will help spur more overall coverage of showers and T'storms compared to yesterday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms by late morning to midday will become more numerous this afternoon east of highway 301 into coastal counties as the Atlantic seabreeze slowly shifts from the coast to I-95. Isolated strong T'storms may bring gusty downburst winds of 40-50 mph where storm outflows and seabreezes collisions occur, but otherwise locally heavy rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour could bring locally high rainfall totals due to slow SW T'storm motion. T'storms will conglomerate along the coast by late afternoon into sunset and wane as they shift into the Atlantic waters by midnight with mid and high level clouds slowly clearing after midnight. Light southwest winds 5-10 mph will turn south to southeasterly at the beaches this afternoon. Daytime highs will be a notch higher than yesterday with values in the low 90s for most areas with around 90 to upper 80s over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley where more clouds will persist from late morning onward to low 90s with peak heat indices in the low 100s. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s away from the coast and mid 70s at the coast and near the St Johns river. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Surface high pressure ridge will be across central FL on Sunday and will then drift ever so slightly northward through Monday. Deep layer flow will be southwest both days about 8-12 knots, with elevated moisture values on Sunday with PWATS about 1.8 to 2 inches, and dropping slightly by Monday. Sunday, fairly typical pattern and would expect to see convection develop along the west coast sea breeze and low level convergent lines over the southwest and west zones in the mid to late morning hours. Convection should continue to blossom into the afternoon and early evening as it moves toward the east coast. A concentration of convection appears likely over the eastern zones as the southwest flow meets up with the east coast sea breeze and timed with peak heating. Isolated to scattered convection in the evening will dissipate overnight with loss of heating, with movement of activity to the east-northeast. Monday, with slightly lower moisture values and mid level ridging building, some lower POPs are warranted over what the NBM suggests, and closer to the MOS guidance, which shows 20-30 percent. Will go with a blend of NBM and the lower guidance to result in chance to likely POPs (about 40-60 percent). Convection should become scattered and isolated while diminishing Monday night with lack of any other forcing and loss of heating. Highs will be above normal in the lower 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Heat indices will top out around 100-105 each day, mainly inland. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Surface high pressure ridge will build further northward into the area Tuesday through early Thursday while temps aloft warm and drier mid level air filters into the region. This should result in subsidence and lower rain chances (to about 30-50 percent at best), but also warmer sfc temps. By late Thursday into Friday, a modest mid level trough moves into the southeast states and the sfc high will move further south. A weak cool front may move into central GA by then. This will likely result in some uptick in rain chances again so advertised up to 50-60 percent by Friday. Could see some stronger storms by Friday given better forcing aloft and cooler mid level temps. Advertised highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 704 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Convection is expected to develop across the area this afternoon, and chances are forecast for local TAF sites. With loss of diurnal heating, this activity is expected to diminish this evening. A dry overnight is forecast. Patchy inland fog could lead to restrictions toward dawn Sunday at KVQQ. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Bermuda high pressure will be centered to the east through this weekend, and into next week, keeping winds generally out of the south. Each day, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the coast and nearshore waters before drifting eastward over the offshore waters by early evening. Seas will be 2-3 feet nearshore and 3-4 feet through the weekend and then resume to 2-3 feet across the waters into early next week. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents are in effect today and Sunday for all area beaches through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 73 91 73 / 60 40 50 20 SSI 88 76 89 76 / 70 40 60 40 JAX 92 74 92 74 / 70 50 60 20 SGJ 90 75 91 74 / 60 40 60 30 GNV 92 73 93 73 / 60 30 70 20 OCF 92 74 92 73 / 60 30 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:44 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
The road was closed at the intersection of West Newberry Rd and NW 120th Terrace in Gainesville due to a fallen tree and downed power lines. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
A tree fell on SW 170th Street which closed the road temporarily. The event time was based on radar. The cost of damage was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
A personal weather station Weather 1 - KFLJACKS4662 measured 2.30 inches in the | past hour.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1268345, 1268348, 1268344.