A surface front was draped across north Florida. This feature combined with diurnal instability, weak steering flow, high moisture and warm temperatures aloft produced localized strong storms with gusty wet downbursts, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A surface front was draped across north Florida. This feature combined with diurnal instability, weak steering flow, high moisture and warm temperatures aloft produced localized strong storms with gusty wet downbursts, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 12:43 AM EST, 2 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 143 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Drier air will settle in over southeast Georgia and into northeast Florida as the frontal boundary continues drift southward and stall over the region. PWAT values behind the frontal boundary are anticipated to drop down to be below 2 inches, with PWAT values ranging between 2.1 and 2.3 inches ahead of the boundary. Prevailing flow along with surface level winds will become less defined this afternoon as low pressure situated ahead of the front begins to become more organized over the forecast area,leading to slower moving storms building throughout the day, with convection occurring ahead of the frontal boundary being capable of producing significant amounts of rainfall and resulting in localized flooding. High temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s over inland areas and in the mid 70s along the coastline. && .SHORT TERM... (Independence Day through Sunday night) Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 On Independence Day, ahead of the low development this weekend, a northeasterly breeze behind a stalled front will lead to the highest rain+storm chances inland where the Gulf and Atlc sea breezes merge, generally along and west of I-75. While the onshore breeziness will keep the beaches cooler (in the mid/upper 80s), it will also bolster the potential for strong rip current development, especially during the afternoon. The lingering front will become a mere trough axis and lay across portions of northern and central FL through Sunday. An upper low overtop the surface trough should organize a weak surface low over the adjacent Atlantic waters Saturday. Ensemble guidance continues to trend development of the surface low east over the Atlantic where it may potentially become tropical disturbance; the NHC has medium (40%) chance of cyclone formation this weekend. Given the initially light steering currents, there is some uncertainty in whether the potential disturbance will wobble back toward the NE FL/GA coast or stay offshore. If it approaches the coast, tropical moisture may begin to wrap around the system Sunday and enhance rain chances along the coast. High- grade tropical moisture will yield healthy rain rates, possibly 5-6" per hour, exacerbating potential flash flood risk, mainly in urban and flood prone areas. At this time, continue to monitor NHC forecasts to receive the latest information regarding the aforementioned potential tropical system. Due the cloud cover and cooling onshore flow, high temperatures are forecast to be cooler with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees both Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Still dealing with uncertainty regarding the potential tropical low early next week as weak steering continues, though southwesterly shear appears to develop Monday evening as an upstream trough approaches. If the tropical disturbance remains stationary near the coast, that increased shear should weaken the already weak system and lift it away quickly. Once the system departs, a building upper high will build over FL and retrograde toward the Gulf, promoting a warming trend with hot temperatures and heat index readings 105+ degrees possible by the middle of next week. Near climo rain chances following typical diurnal patterns are expected next week, although a wake dry slot may work in from the north behind the departing disturbance. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 MVFR and IFR ceilings will be in place overnight and into early Thursday morning with conditions lifting by midmorning at around 10-14z, with a potential for reduced visibilities affecting VQQ and GNV into the early morning. Winds will be light and variable through the morning with east coast sea breeze winds building in for coastal and Jax Metro sites in the afternoon. Showers and storms will develop through the day becoming more dispersed by around 03z. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A front over the southeastern states will shift southward through today and move into the local Georgia waters tonight and stall into the holiday weekend bringing waves of showers and thunderstorms. An area of weak low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary and move northeastward Friday into the weekend and could bring breezy winds for the coastal waters. NHC is currently monitoring this system to see if the low will gain tropical or subtropical characteristics. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues for area beaches potentially rising to High Risk during the 4th of July weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 73 92 72 / 50 20 40 20 SSI 88 76 87 76 / 60 20 50 40 JAX 91 73 90 74 / 80 30 70 40 SGJ 89 73 87 74 / 80 40 70 50 GNV 90 71 91 72 / 90 40 80 30 OCF 88 73 89 73 / 90 40 90 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:30 UTC.
2 lightning, 2 heavy rain, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The intersection of SR-24 (Archer Rd.) and SR-121 (SW 34th St.) in Gainesville experienced major traffic due to a lightning strike that disabled the | traffic lights. The cost of damage was unknown but it was estimated for inclusion in Storm Data.
A personal Weather Station Trout Puddle KFLINTER2 reported 2.15 inches within the past hour.
A personal Weather Station Camp Rankin Weather Station KFLELKTO13 reported 3.85 inches within the past hour.
Lightning struck a tree and the discharge traveled along the ground and burnt down a nearby shed along Brush Hill Lane. A video was relayed via social media. Time was estimated by radar and the cost of damage was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
Several trees down on the northern side of Interlachen. Time estimated via radar and the cost of damage was inclusion for the event in Storm Data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1274175, 1274172, 1274173, 1274176, 1274174.