A trough extended across the local area, and an area of low pressure formed along the trough axis and retrograded into the Gulf of America during this period. Waves of heavy, slow moving storms produced localized flooding rainfall.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A trough extended across the local area, and an area of low pressure formed along the trough axis and retrograded into the Gulf of America during this period. Waves of heavy, slow moving storms produced localized flooding rainfall. A few stronger storms produced gusty wet downbursts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 22, 1:21 AM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
221 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
...LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
A broad surface low around 1013 mb was analyzed near the southern
NC along the coast with a west-east backdoor frontal boundary
nearby. The models generally agree the surface low and front will
slide south- southwest today, with the low pressure moving into
southern GA this evening. Broad cyclonic flow in the low levels
from the northwest and west (sfc 5-10 mph), along with the west
and east coast sea breeze should result in numerous to potentially
widespread showers and storms over northeast FL (especially
inland) and less coverage over southeast GA as some drier air is
noted in that area. Areas that don't get precip until mid to late
aftn will be prime for further convection in the evening hours
and possible overnight hours (until midnight-2 AM) given the
synoptic regime with warm and unstable conditions and the low
pressure feature.
The primary threat today will be heavy downpours and resultant
localized flooding, with analysis suggesting PWATs of 2.2 inches
currently. WPC has the entire area in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall. The higher threat will be locations that
already are somewhat saturated and urbanized areas. In addition,
with the fairly high MLCAPE of about 2500-3000 J/kg, strong
downburst winds of 45-60 mph will be possible in the stronger
cores. SPC shows a marginal risk of severe storms mainly north of
I-10 in our area.
Hot and humid conditions are expected again today, and like yesterday,
afternoon convection and cloud cover may shorten the window of heat
index values of 108+ degrees. Yesterday's heat indices varied from
105 to about 110. Have opted to re-issue another heat advisory
that encompasses most locations. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
70s are anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
A broad closed low is likely to develop along the lingering trough as
the trough continues westward across the Gulf waters, dragging
its associated cold front down towards the local area. Another
active day as showers and storms get an early start during the
morning hours on Wednesday, with activity further developing by
the afternoon into early evening hours. In addition to expected
numerous to widespread thunderstorms, PWATs of around 2.25" to
2.5" will support the possibility of rain rates of 4-5" per hour at
times. As mentioned in the earlier forecast package, Flash
flooding will be the primary concern given the deep moisture in
place and the risk is likely to be highest west of I-95 as
easterly flow will push showers and storms in a east to west
pattern. With the increase in cloud cover on Wednesday, highs are
expected to only get into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
By Thursday, southeasterly flow and lingering moisture will keep the
possibility of scattered to numerous showers/storms for most
locations by the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze makes
its way inland. Temps will be a bit warmer than Wednesday but
still only get into the lower 90s with upper 80s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Guidance is trending towards a less wet period during the upcoming
weekend as drier air, PWATs ~1.5" to 1.8", is brought into the
area with a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic high shifting
towards the eastern seaboard. POPs for this weekend have lowered
to now sit in the 30% to 40% range for most of the area. With that
said, another period of temps getting into the upper 90s with the
ridge building over the area, with heat index values potentially
reaching to Advisory levels once again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
VFR cigs around this morning with some light fog possible, mainly
around VQQ. An unsettled pattern expected today as a trough of
low pressure moves into the area. The best chance of convection
will come in the afternoon and have TEMPO groups in the TAFs for
the afternoon hours. MVFR to IFR conditions and gusty winds
expected in these storms. Otherwise, west to northwest winds 5-10
knots will turn to the east and southeast for the coastal TAFs
with the Atlantic sea breeze passage prior to most T'storms
developing.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
A broad area of low pressure will move southwest across the local
waters today and tonight and then move into the Gulf on Wednesday.
A weak backdoor frontal boundary will move into the Georgia
waters late Wednesday which will likely bring higher chances to
showers and thunderstorms to area waters Wednesday into Thursday.
High pressure ridging will begin building into the region Wednesday
night through the weekend as the low pressure in the Gulf moves
away from the area, allowing for prevailing winds to become south and
southeast over our local waters. Winds generally look to be less
than 15 kt and combined seas remain low at 1-3 ft.
Rip Currents: A low to moderate risk of rip currents with max surf
heights near 1-2 ft. Similar conditions anticipated for Wednesday.
Some increased rip current risk possible late week and the
weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites
Today:
Today
---------
Jacksonville 101/1942
Gainesville 99/1907
Alma, GA 100/1942
Craig Airport 99/1977
Daily record high minimums at our designated climate sites
Today:
Today
--------
Jacksonville 81/1872
Gainesville 77/2015
Alma, GA 76/2021
Craig Airport 78/2025
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 97 75 90 73 / 70 60 90 30
SSI 93 79 88 78 / 50 60 80 40
JAX 96 76 91 75 / 80 50 90 30
SGJ 92 75 88 75 / 70 50 80 30
GNV 94 74 90 73 / 80 60 100 30
OCF 92 74 88 74 / 80 70 100 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-
522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
AM...None.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
356 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0233 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNE Saint Augustine B 29.86N 81.26W
07/21/2025 M53 MPH St. Johns FL Official NWS Obs
Delayed report - CMAN SAUF1 reported a
sustained wind of 38 mph with a gust to 53
mph from 350 degrees.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 heavy rain, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Private weather station Ecowitt - KFLOCALA764 measured 3.43 inches of rain. About 2.8 inches fell between 7:30 AM and 8:30 AM. Rain began around 5 AM.
Private weather station Fuhrman Weather - KFLCITRA13 measured 4.13 inches of rainfall. Rain began around 5:05 AM.
Private weather station BRUNO - KFLANTHO23 measured a storm total rainfall amount of 5.7 inches. Rain began around 5:35 AM. About 4 inches fell between 5:35 AM and 7:35 AM.
At 6:43 am, the public reported a roadway was starting to overflow with water on NW Gainesville Road in Ocala near NW 89th place. At 8:05 am, the public shared a video along NW Gainesville Road near NW 120th Street and Florida State Fire College that showed water over the road, but cars were still driving through. The ditches were also filled and pilling over onto the road.
Ocala CWOP station FW6750 reported 2.20 inches from 7:10 am to 8:05 am.
Water was flowing down hills and flooding the road. There was standing water on the road. The observer reported 4.5 inches of rain fell in the past 5 hours. The flood area polygon was approximated based on the report location and nearby roads.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1278384, 1278382, 1278385, 1278386, 1278381, 1278388.