Rip Current in Florida, December 26, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
643 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Early morning fog will continue to be the main weather concern
  into the weekend, with patchy/areas of dense fog possible.

- Increasing dangerous rip current threat at area beaches this
  weekend and on Monday with building swell.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures forecast to
  continue through Monday.

- A strong cold front is forecast to move through the area late
  Monday night/early Tuesday, ushering in colder than normal
  conditions through at least New Year's Eve/New Year's Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Current-Sunday...Persistent weather pattern continues into the
weekend as weak high pressure lies across the region promoting dry
conditions and above seasonal temperatures. Relatively light winds
through the period and primarily offshore, but could see winds
transition onshore at the coast each afternoon with sea breeze
formation. On Sun the light winds may become onshore for a larger
portion of ECFL. Skies will continue to range from MClear to
PCloudy with max temps in the U70s to around 80F - perhaps M70s
for coastal Volusia. Min temps largely in the 50s, but could see
some L60s near the immediate coast and around Metro Orlando.
Continue to keep mention of precip absent from the grids/zones
over land areas and cannot rule out an ISOLD shower over the local
coastal waters - esp early today.

The biggest weather challenge continues to be fog development
potential each late night/early morning, esp with high pressure
overhead, light to calm wind, and MClear skies. Will likely continue
to carry patchy fog (possible areas of fog) in the grids as we move
forward ahead of the next advancing front - early next week. Should
fog develop, it may promote visibilities less than a half a mile,
and will need to be closely monitored for any potential Dense Fog
Advisories (DF.A).

Mon-Fri...High pressure quickly breaks down with the approach of the
next upper trough poised to push a strong surface cold front across
central FL Mon overnight into early Tue. Weak high pressure slowly
builds into the region from the NW thru mid-week. The latest
guidance has trended "back to" a bit colder again behind this
boundary. Still below normal temperatures are expected areawide Tue
night into Fri of next week. We continue to keep PoPs absent over
land Mon night/Tue surrounding this next front, though still cannot
rule out an ISOLD sprinkle/shower with its passage. Otherwise,
any precip continues to be left over the local coastal waters. The
dry conditions will persist thru the remainder of the extended
post-frontal.

For temps, highs continue above normal U70s to L80s on Mon (pre-
frontal), then drop on average of 10-15 degrees (post-frontal) on
Tue into the 60s and L70s. Highs generally in the 60s almost
areawide Wed-Fri, though we may see some L70s enter the picture
again on Fri - near Melbourne southward. Lows Mon night generally
in the 50s, except may see U40s across portions of north Lake and
NW Volusia counties. Tue night - lows largely in the 40s, except
U30s N/W of I-4, and L50s immediate St. Lucie/Martin coasts.
Lowest wind chill/apparent temps Tue overnight into Wed morning
with winds near 10 mph will produce values in the L-M30s
north/west of I-4 with U30s southward across the interior thru
Okeechobee County. Readings in the L-M-U40s along the immediate
Space and Treasure coasts.

Winds Wed/Thu night's around 5 mph so wind chills won't be a greater
concern as the previous night. However, mins Wed night may still
find their way down to the U30s to around 40F across much of the
interior with 40s along the immediate coastline. Mins Thu night
into Fri morning may see a few U30s across rural north
Lake/northwest Volusia counties with L-M40s over much of the rest
of the interior, except U40s-L/M50s for along the Space/Treasure
coasts. Only a slight warming trend Fri overnight into Sat morning
with generally 40s W of I-95 and L-M50s for much of the coast.
Keep in mind this is still several days out and model runs still a
bit inconsistent in jumping a couple/few degrees up/down for mins
in the extended.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Thru Tue night...Generally favorable boating conditions continue
through the weekend as high pressure remains in control. Generally
an offshore wind component thru Sat night - with a brief onshore
component along the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze, then
a light onshore flow areawide for Sun, S/SW Sun night, WRLY on
Mon into the evening, with NWRLY winds Mon overnight/Tue (post-
frontal) lasting into mid-week. Speeds look to remain below 15
knots through much of the weekend, except into later tonight/early
Sat when speeds increase to around 15 knots offshore, near to
north of the Cape. Speeds increase again with approach/passage of
a cold front late Mon-Tue and may approach 15-25 kts - esp
offshore. Wave heights 2-4 ft build to 3-5 ft Sat and back to 2-4
ft Sun/Sun night.

A strong cold front moves across the local waters Mon overnight into
early Tue. This will lead to deteriorating boating conditions early
next week, as winds increase and seas build. Seas Mon 3-5 ft
areawide during the day, building 3-5 ft near shore and 5-7 ft
offshore by daybreak Tue morning thru the remainder of the day on
Tue, with potential slight improvement Tue night. Seas could
potentially build up to 8 ft well offshore on Tue - though
confidence a bit low this far out. Precip potential surrounding
front (Mon night-Tue night) - mainly ISOLD-SCT showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 643 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Patchy fog continues to spread portions of east central Florida
including Lake, western Orange, and northwest Osceola counties.
Therefore, have kept TEMPOs at MCO/LEE/ISM for potential MVFR VIS
reductions through 13Z. Otherwise, VFR is forecast through the
daytime period. Light winds predominantly out of the west-
northwest shift onshore at coastal terminals this afternoon as a
weak sea breeze develops. Conditions remain generally favorable
for fog again tonight, and will continue to monitor with future
TAF packages.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Persistent forecast through Mon from a weather concern, with
above normal temperatures and RH values above critical thresholds.
Rather light offshore winds continue during this time thanks to a
continued weak pressure gradient in place, with potential for a
weak sea breeze to develop each afternoon at the coast. That being
said, the biggest weather concern thru next Mon morning continues
to revolve around potential for late night/early morning fog
development (potentially dense) across much of ECFL.

The next big change comes Mon overnight into Tue, with passage of a
strong cold front. While this system will be moisture-starved with
little if any precip potential, the greatest forecast challenge will
be much drier/cooler conditions from Tue into Fri of next week.
While several days out, we are advertising min RHs Tue afternoon in
the 30s to L40s near/north of I-4. Drier areawide into Wed with
widespread U20s/30s - 40s for the Space/Treasure coasts. For Thu RH
values in the 20s/30s almost areawide and slight recovery into Fri
with 30s/40s.

For low temps behind the front, expect 30s/40s areawide Wed-Thu
mornings and 40s again almost areawide Fri morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  54  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  78  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  78  56  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  78  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  78  54  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  79  55  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  78  57  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  78  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law