Tornado in Arizona, May 6, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
101 PM MST Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will move through the region bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. High
pressure will build in for Thursday and Friday with warmer and drier
conditions expected. A weak system will pass to the south of the
region over the weekend, with isolated showers possible across
eastern Arizona.

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.DISCUSSION...Low pressure has moved well east of the region but
showers on the western periphery continue to move through the state
this afternoon. With limited instability, thunder has been hard to
come by but enough breaks in the clouds have allowed for some
surface heating and a few isolated storms may continue to develop
into this evening. With plenty of low level moisture across the
region, there is the possibility for low clouds/fog again tonight so
slow down on area roads if you encounter fog when out and about
tonight.

While the remnants of this low will push off to the east tonight,
another low will dive down through the Great Basin and bring more
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Wednesday.
This low moves out pretty quickly and all shower/storm activity
should cut off Wednesday evening.

A ridge of high pressure will start to make its way into the Desert
Southwest late Wednesday and hangs around for Thursday and Friday.
This will bring drier conditions along with markedly warmer
temperatures than we have had the past several days. Winds will stay
on the lighter side around 5-15 mph each afternoon.

By the weekend, the models keep trying to bring in a weak low from
the southwest. The strength of the ridge appears to be too much and
the low remains off to our south. A tightening of the pressure
gradient should being in some gustier winds but moisture remains
limited. However, the flow from the southeast may be enough to allow
for some showers across our eastern zones for Saturday (along the
eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and Chuska Mountains) and
Sunday (mainly along the AZ/NM border). Majority of the clusters
remain dry so chances still look slim but we will continue to watch
how this unfolds in the coming days.

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.AVIATION...Tuesday 06/18Z through Wednesday 07/18Z...MVFR deck
improving to VFR between 18Z and 22Z, rain showers and some
thunderstorms possible this afternoon with MVFR possible near
heavier showers. Isolated rain showers are still possible
overnight with flight decks at VFR to MVFR. Winds SW 10kts, gusts
to 20kts this afternoon, gusty and variable near showers, then light
and variable to terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 07/18Z through Friday 09/18Z...VFR conditions
expected, still a few showers or thunderstorms possible Wednesday
with brief MVFR possible near heavier showers. No precipitation
expected Thursday into Friday morning. Winds W-NW 5-10kts
Wednesday, NE 10kts Thursday.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Scattered showers and a
couple thunderstorms continue on Wednesday, but coverage will be
less than the last couple days. Things dry out Thursday as the Low
pressure system moves east and temperatures warm back up to
seasonal averages. Winds W-NW 5-10 mph on Wednesday, NE 5-10 mph
Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Look for dry conditions Friday. Saturday
could see a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
along the higher terrain. Sunday will be dry again. Maximum
temperatures will run 5-10 degrees above average each day. Min RH
humidity drops to 15-25% during each afternoon. Winds NE-E 5-10
mph on Friday, E-SE 5-10 mph Saturday, S-SW 10-15 mph Sunday.

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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff