Blizzard in Alaska, May 10 to 11, 2025

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 AM AKDT Sat May 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally calm weather in the Interior with slowly building
pressure through Sunday. Isolated afternoon showers are possible
each day. A shortwave brings light snow to much of the North Slope
today through Sunday with some areas of blowing snow possible
east of Deadhorse. A 980 mb low moves into the Bering Sea Sunday
and will bring a front of rain across the West Coast and Southern
Interior Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Isolated showers possible Saturday and Sunday afternoons along
 elevated terrain. Slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday
 afternoon between Northway and Chicken.

-High temperatures in the mid 50s through lower 60s expected to
 continue through next week.

-A front brings widespread showers to the Southern Interior Monday
 through Tuesday. Most rain will be from the White Mountains south
 to the Alaska Range. Rain totals of 1 to 2 tenths of an inch
 expected.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 Saturday and Sunday.

-A low-pressure system will move into the eastern Bering Sea
 Sunday. A front ahead of it will bring widespread rainfall to the
 West Coast and southwestern Interior Sunday night through
 Tuesday, with up to half an inch of rain possible.

-Gusty easterly winds ahead of the front ramp up Sunday with
 coastal areas from the Bering Strait south seeing sustained
 speeds of 25 to 30 mph and gusts to near 40 mph possible. St.
 Lawrence Island and the YK Delta will see stronger winds with
 sustained values of 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 50 mph possible.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-Westerly winds increase this morning and persist through Sunday
 afternoon. Sustained values of 15 to 25 mph for Point Lay through
 Deadhorse and sustained values of 25 to 35 mph east of Deadhorse.

-Light snow comes to much of the North Slope this afternoon and
 will persist through Sunday. Storm total snow values of 1 to 3
 inches expected with the heaviest snow falling along the north
 slopes of the eastern Brooks Range.

-Areas of blowing snow likely where these winds and falling snow
 overlap. Visibility reductions are expected to be worst east of
 Deadhorse where winds will be strongest with visibility falling
 to a half mile at times. A winter weather advisory has been
 issued.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 998 mb low sits in the eastern Bering Sea and a 1000mb shortwave
low over Banks Island will bring snow to the North Slope this
afternoon through Sunday as it moves south. A 985 mb low moves
into the Bering Sea Sunday where it combines with the existing 998
mb low and strengthens to a 977 mb low by Sunday night. This low
will extend a front across the YK Delta and lower Yukon Sunday
night which will continue to St. Lawrence Island and the Seward
Peninsula by Monday morning and into the southern Interior by
Monday evening. Gusty easterly winds and widespread wetting rain
accompany this front. Tuesday a low moving along the Aleutians
will cut off the Bering low's access to warmer, moist air causing
it to weaken significantly and join with this Aleutian low to form
a broad area of weak low pressure across the southern part of the
state through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer weather is expected across the Interior and much of the
West Coast into next week, when widespread 50s and 60s will be
likely. Minimum relative humidity values in the upper 20s and
30s today will continue through the weekend, with periods of
lower 20s possible in the Middle Tanana Valley on Sunday.
Slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon between Northway
and Chicken. A front moves across the state Sunday bringing higher
chances of wetting rain to the southwestern Interior and West
Coast by Sunday night and to the southern Interior by Monday
night. Easterly winds increase along this front with gusts up to
30 mph possible along ridgetops and sustained values of 10 to 20
mph likely in the valleys. The front is expected to stall, weaken,
and fall apart Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon River at Ft. Yukon broke up Tuesday with minor flooding.
The breakup front remained stalled at 6 Mile Island below Ft. Yukon
as of Thursday afternoon. Water levels remain low upriver.

The ice between Fort Yukon and Beaver is slowly degrading, with
water levels rising Wednesday night into Thursday at Beaver. Beaver
is expected to slowly break up Friday through Sunday. The timing of
the breakup front reaching Stevens Village and the Dalton Highway
bridge could be anywhere from 1-5 days.

The Porcupine River has not started to break up in Canada.
Increasing flows are not expected for at least seven days at Fort
Yukon.

As of Friday afternoon, ice and water continues to flow past Galena,
even though there is still some in-place ice slowing it down above
Pilot Mountain Slough. There are a few more short in-place sections
of ice between Galena and Nulato that should not cause any
significant jamming concerns. Below Nulato, the river ice remains
in-place with signs of lifting and thermal degradation. The Yukon is
open from Galena upstream to the Nowitna River with the exception of
a small (<1 mile) section of in-place ice at Big Eddy/Ham Island.
From the Nowitna upstream to the Boneyard, there is thermally
degrading in-place ice. The Yukon is open between Tanana and the
Boneyard; however, ice runs can be expected when the breakup between
Ft. Yukon and Rampart Canyon finally occurs. The River Watch team
will fly again on Saturday morning.

Visit http://www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest river updates.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A 990mb low in the eastern Bering Sea that extended a front over
the West Coast and central Interior Sunday and Monday weakens as a
low moving east along the Aleutians pulls it south. This will
cause the front to weaken and fall apart Tuesday and forms a
large swath of low pressure across the Gulf of Alaska and Bristol
Bay by Thursday. This will generate generally unsettled weather
across much of the Interior and West Coast through the end of the
week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

Stokes