A moist airmass was in place across the lower Mid Atlantic and Southeast with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A weak surface low moved across the area from western Virginia to southeastern Virginia during the afternoon of May 6.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
A moist airmass was in place across the lower Mid Atlantic and Southeast with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A weak surface low moved across the area from western Virginia to southeastern Virginia during the afternoon of May 6. This surface low allowed for widespread convection across the state with widespread moderate rainfall and locally heavy rainfall. In addition to the rain, isolated severe storms with gusty winds also occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 6, 3:04 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 404 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Summer-like conditions are expected through the week. Expect hot and humid conditions as well as daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will also be multiple chances for severe weather, especially mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 355 PM EDT Monday... Late this aftn, sctd showers and tstms were developing over wrn and cntrl portions of the area, due to the combination of a sfc trough, shortwave energy and increasing MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/Kg. Dew points were also in the mid to upper 60s across the region, with temps ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. This shortwave energy/trough will push across the area this evening into early Tue morning, resulting in showers/tstms spreading ewrd to the coast. Given the moisture profile (PWATs 1.5"-2.0"), heavy rain will be a good bet in heavier showers or storms. This, combined with portions of the area receiving 1-2" of rain in the last couple of days, has justified placement of a marginal ERO over most of VA (W of the Bay) and inland NE NC. Showers/storms will taper off or end after midnight tonight, lingering the longest over the Eastern Shore. Mild again tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Monday... Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a varying flow aloft plus a lee trough and the approach of a cold front, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances Tue through Thu. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late evening. Increasingly warmer conditions are expected for Tue and Wed, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s Tue, and in the mid 80s to around 90 Wed. Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the 80s. Summer-like heat and humidity will ensure presence of instability all three days. A ridge briefly builds just to the W of the region on Tue, placing the local area in NW flow aloft. There does look to be increasing shear, so cannot rule out severe weather. The SPC has placed areas W of the bay in a marginal risk for Tue. The flow aloft then turns back to the WSW for Wed and strengthens, which will allow shear to continue to grow. Thus, there is also a marginal risk on Wed. A cold front will move towards the region Thu, as flow aloft further strengthens ahead of a trough. Ahead of the front, (quasi) linear convection is likely to pass through the FA. While there is still some uncertainty, Thu has the potential for the highest coverage of severe storms this week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Monday... Showers/tstms will exit out to sea Thu night, as a cold front pushes to the coast. Then, a secondary front and upper trough will push across the region Fri through Fri evening, producing the chance for more showers. Lows Thu night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Fri mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The weekend looks to be considerably drier, but will keep a slight to small chance of showers (isolated thunder) for Sat aftn through Sun. Dry air also means lower humidity with dewpoints dropping into the 40s-50s. Just below normal to normal temps expected for Sat through Mon. Highs will be in the lower 70s Sat, in the lower to mid 70s Sun, and in the mid to upper 70s Mon. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... MVFR to VFR CIGs were prevailing at the TAF sites this aftn, with VCSH mentioned in all TAF sites expect SBY until 20-21z. Sctd showers and tstms will affect all TAF sites from later this aftn through this evening. Heavy rain may impact VSBYs at times, with mainly VFR or MVFR CIGs. Winds will be mainly SSW 5-10 kt this aftn into Tue aftn, with a few higher gusts possible in any stronger storms through this evening. CIGs will become lower MVFR or IFR tonight into Tue morning, then improve to mainly VFR by Tue aftn. Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Tue night through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Monday... Surface high pressure continues to move further offshore this afternoon, while a stalled frontal boundary remains just north of the local waters. Current conditions are rather benign with west/southwesterly winds around 8-12kt. Waves are 1 foot or less with seas of 2-3ft. This trend looks to persist through Wednesday with winds from the south-southeast to southwest around 10kt. There may be occasional gusts to 20kt keeping conditions below SCA criteria. However, there will be chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, which could produce erratic, strong wind gusts over the waters. Otherwise, southwest winds will gradually increase some ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Models differ in the expected speeds/overall pattern, but will keep an eye on the potential for SCA conditions at least across the Bay Friday/Friday night as winds turn northwesterly behind the front. Rain/storm chances continue through the remainder of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 355 PM EDT Monday... Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding (Bishops Head) will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests the high tide cycle early Thursday morning could see a bit more in the way of low-end minor flooding over the mid/upper Bay - due mostly to astronomical tides climbing slightly by late this week as we approach the new moon phase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...AM/TMG LONG TERM...AM/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...LKB/JKP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 409 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 MDZ021>025-VAZ099-100-072015- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Accomack-Northampton- 409 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday, some of which may be strong to severe with heavy rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>098-509>525-072015- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward- Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia- Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick- Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex- Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- 409 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Heavy rain will be possible in heavier showers or stronger storms with localized flooding possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday, some of which may be strong to severe with heavy rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
349 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
VAZ065-066-062030-
Lunenburg VA-Mecklenburg VA-
349 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND
SOUTHWESTERN LUNENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...
At 349 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kells Corner, or near Chase City, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Kells Corner around 355 PM EDT.
Rehoboth around 405 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Fairview,
Plantersville, Wilburn, Spanish Grove, Loves Mill, Fort Mitchell, and
Finneywood.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3689 7849 3694 7848 3701 7835 3681 7819
3677 7854 3680 7857
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 249DEG 10KT 3686 7844
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MRDThe Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:43 UTC.
6 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The right lane and right shoulder of I-95 north were closed due to high water from heavy rain.
VDOT cameras showed at least six inches of water covering the roadway at the corner of Belvidere Street and Canal Street.
VDOT reported high water on Courthouse Road (VA-201) with partial road closures in numerous locations due to heavy rainfall.
The 911 call center reported high water due to heavy rain near the intersection of Countyline Church Road (US-603) and Ladysmith Road (US-639).
The 911 call center reported flooded roads in Port Royal due to heavy rain.
The 911 call center reported trees down across roadways in Port royal due to storms.
Flooding due to heavy rain was reported by the public near the intersection of Armistead Avenue and Mercer Avenue.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1184578, 1184581, 1184583, 1184586, 1184589, 1184595, 1184593.