A deep upper level low moving over the central Rockies brought large scale ascent over the region on the evening of the 17th. Strong surface heating during the day brought sufficient instability for severe thunderstorms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A deep upper level low moving over the central Rockies brought large scale ascent over the region on the evening of the 17th. Strong surface heating during the day brought sufficient instability for severe thunderstorms. An isolated severe thunderstorm developed in eastern New Mexico and moved into Bailey County during the evening. This storm produced a wet microburst near Muleshoe (Bailey County) derailing a train. This storm went on to produce an observed severe wind gust of 69 mph near Earth in Lamb County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 16, 11:37 PM CST, 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Current conditions are not too dissimilar from this time yesterday, the one exception being only a very light CU field is observed over the northern half of the Rolling Plains. The CU field is over an area of weak surface convergence with dewpoints near 60. As with yesterday, some CAMs are hinting at very isolated convection across the Rolling Plains and the southeastern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. Any storms that develop are expected to be weak given low CAPE/low shear and will struggle to sustain themselves after sunset. The upper low currently over California will push slowly eastward tonight into tomorrow afternoon. This will help to slowly kick the upper ridge currently dominating the FA eastward and increase upper diffluence across the region. Convection is expected to develop over the higher terrain of New Mexico early to mid afternoon and push eastward into the early evening. Models are in fairly decent agreement by having convection near the Texas/New Mexico state line by 00Z tomorrow. A surface low is progged to develop along the Foothills of Wyoming and Colorado and will lead to breezy conditions for much of the FA tomorrow afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The extended forecast continues to feature periodic thunderstorm chances, along with warm/hot afternoons through the week, and modest cooling by Saturday or Sunday. Currently, it appears the best chances/coverage of convection will favor Tuesday evening and late Friday into Saturday, tied to the passage of a pair of upper lows. The first storm system, discussed in the short term, and currently spinning its way into the Great Basin, will be ejecting northeastward over the northern Rockies Tuesday night. The bulk of the synoptic scale lift from this upper low will be directed well to our north, though a glancing shot of ascent will likely support a line of storms moving our of east-central and northeast New Mexico and into the western Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains tomorrow evening. This activity will struggle to make much eastward progress before tending to diminish south of the Texas Panhandle late evening. That said, we could still see at least isolated to scattered (increasingly elevated) convection try to survive/persist into the central South Plains before diminishing altogether. Further north, the activity could make it across a good chunk of our northern counties before lifting north and/or diminishing. The greatest hazards with this activity will be gusty outflow winds and brief downpours. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist over much of the High Plains through the remainder of the week as the western trough quickly reloads. The next upper low will dig into the Great Basin on Thursday, before heading east and then northeast into the weekend. Current projections bring this upper low out farther south than its predecessor, though some of these details will still have to be worked out over the next few days. Overall, the system is trending a bit slower than 24 hours ago, which could delay its large scale support and more widespread rain/storm chances locally until Saturday (vs. Friday afternoon/night, as it appeared yesterday). In fact the latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS keep all locations except those near the TX/NM border dry Friday and Friday night. We'll have to further refine our forecast should these trends continue. Regardless, drier and cooler conditions will follow the passage of upper level system by the end of the extended forecast. Backtracking, between the passage of the two upper lows to our north, a tightening dryline will take shape over the central or western zones Wednesday afternoon. Although large-scale support will be lacking, strong heating and convergence along the dryline may be enough to trigger isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection, as a number of the medium range NWP suggest. Should storms be able to develop, SBCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 30 knots would support some storm organization and a risk of a strong/severe storm or two. The dryline is expected to be farther west, more diffuse, with less instability and greater inhibition Thursday afternoon/evening, making convection locally less likely. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions with southerly winds increasing to near 15 to 20 knots through the afternoon hours today. A line of storms will approach PVW late tonight around 03z-06z tonight, but coverage remains uncertain. Confidence is low that the line of storms extends south towards LBB, thus no mention was given at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...11
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 238 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 TXZ021>044-170745- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 238 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. An isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible across portions of the far southeast Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorm chances are forecast across portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong wind gusts in excess of 50 mph will be possible nearest the New Mexico state line on Tuesday evening. Additional storm chances are forecast to return across the Caprock and Rolling Plains on Friday and last through the weekend.
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:32 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe downburst winds southeast of Muleshoe caused a train to derail.
A Texas tech University West Texas mesonet site near Earth measured severe wind gusts from 2043 CST through 2054 CST. A peak wind gust of 69 mph was measured at 2043 CST. Additionally, wind driven hail damaged an anemometer on the mesonet site.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1205687, 1205688.