A shortwave trough and a cold front led to the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms May 4 and 5. Heavy rain causing flash flooding was the main impact during these days.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A shortwave trough and a cold front led to the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms May 4 and 5. Heavy rain causing flash flooding was the main impact during these days. Unfortunately one flash flood fatality occurred in Johnson County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 4, 4:35 PM CST, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 535 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Our wet weekend will reach its peak later tonight with the arrival of an upper level trough. Lift supplied by this disturbance along with a cold front draped across the region will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best coverage of storms and heaviest rainfall is expected across the southwest quarter of the region where lift will be maximized. However, since all areas have seen appreciable rainfall this past week and we expect additional heavy rainfall, we will maintain our Flood Watch for the entire CWA through Sunday afternoon. We also anticipate more isolated convection through the evening ahead of the main wave of storms. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with the best chances west of the I-35 corridor. We will not make any significant changes to the forecast at this time. (see discussion below). 79 Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday Afternoon/ Thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon with impacts expected across North and Central Texas. There will be a medium risk for flash flooding, especially south of I-20. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will also become a threat this afternoon through tonight. The weather system responsible for today/tonight's rain is now across southern NM, continuing to move eastward. Additionally, a nearly stationary front stretches from Central Oklahoma southwestward into the Permian Basin. Several boundaries are also draped across the region -- one just south of the I-20 corridor with another across the Red River. As the main shortwave continues to inch closer to our region, these boundaries are likely to become the focus for thunderstorm development. MLCAPE has gradually been on the rise through the day, with just over 2000 J/kg expected by this afternoon. The greatest instability is likely to be across western Central Texas (west of I-35), where the atmosphere has remain unperturbed from this morning's rain. It's this area that will have the better chances to experience severe thunderstorms both this afternoon, then again tonight. In addition to the severe weather threat, the risk for flash flooding has increased, especially across western Central Texas. Models continue to produce widespread heavy rainfall across the Hill Country, where about half of the area is at risk of picking up at least 5" of rain. Rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour cannot be ruled out, therefore, those across Central Texas should prepare for potential night-time flooding. The flooding threat will migrate eastward through the early morning hours as heavy rain falls over saturated soils. Although rainfall totals are expected to be slightly lower than western Central Texas, saturated soils will quickly lead to runoff. Any heavy rain that falls will quickly lead to flooding across the Brazos Valley. Another concentrated area of convection appears likely across North Texas, however, confidence in its exact placement remains low. Widespread 1-3" of rain are expected with isolated pockets of 4+ inches of rain possible. Wherever those heavier rain bands develop, the flash flooding threat will rapidly increase. Precipitation will be shifting eastward through the night, clearing much of our region by sunrise Sunday. A few lingering showers cannot be ruled out through the morning as remnant moisture lingers behind the departing complex. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs in the 70s and 80s. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/ Any lingering or secondary convection on Sunday will dissipate after sunset with the loss of instability. The return of warm/moist advection aloft, lingering moisture, and light east to southeast surface winds will lead to more drizzle and fog formation overnight. Will indicate some visibility drops of 1 to 4 miles in drizzle/fog but nothing dense at this time. Visibility will improve around midday with boundary layer mixing. An active weather pattern will remain in place, however, due to the development of a longwave trough across the CONUS, the resulting cyclonic flow aloft, and the presence of a dryline to our west. Isolated thunderstorms may occur both Monday and Tuesday, but a strong capping inversion will keep storm coverage low and most areas rain-free. Hopefully this cap holds, otherwise surface based CAPE of 4000-5000 j/kg along with 40-50 kt of effective shear will cause any storm which develops to become rapidly severe. Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as a shortwave crosses the Plains and the dryline advances east into North and Central Texas. Convection developing near the dryline should begin farther east and become more widespread than previous days due to added lift associated with the shortwave. At this time, position of the dryline and convective initiation looks to be somewhere near the I-35 corridor. In addition, a cold front will slowly approach, which may provide an added focus for development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Instability and deep layer shear will again be sufficient for the development of severe storms. The front will sag south into Central Texas on Thursday, shifting convection and the severe threat south of the I-20 corridor as a second shortwave moves overhead. The front will continue to push slowly south, forcing thunderstorm development farther south into South Central and Southeast Texas on Friday. The upper trough will shift to the eastern third of the CONUS Friday into Saturday, sending a second push of cooler post-frontal air into the region and making for a dry and pleasant start to next weekend. Next Sunday may see a return of clouds and low rain chances in the afternoon and evening, but most locations should experience pleasant weather for Mother's Day. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ The primary concern to aviation will be thunderstorms tonight. Some of the high resolution guidance does develop a few thunderstorms early this evening but coverage will be too limited to include in this TAF package. The timing of the main round of storms associated with a passing shortwave will still be roughly between 4Z and 11Z with the best window for impact at the TAF sites between 05Z and 9Z. Storms will exit to the east after sunrise, leaving the rest of the day Sunday storm-free. Ceilings early this evening will hover between low end VFR and high end MVFR. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility will accompany the storms overnight with slowly improving ceilings through the day Sunday. Wind directions will vary anywhere from east to south tonight through Sunday. Sustained wind speeds will stay below 12 knots, allowing south flow operations to continue. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 78 68 83 72 / 100 60 10 20 20 Waco 66 78 69 82 71 / 100 40 20 20 5 Paris 65 74 66 80 71 / 90 90 20 30 20 Denton 64 78 67 83 71 / 100 60 10 30 20 McKinney 66 77 67 82 71 / 100 80 10 30 20 Dallas 67 79 68 83 72 / 100 60 10 20 10 Terrell 66 77 67 83 71 / 100 70 20 20 5 Corsicana 68 79 68 85 72 / 100 50 20 20 5 Temple 67 79 68 83 72 / 100 40 20 10 5 Mineral Wells 64 78 66 86 71 / 90 20 10 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 554 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051215- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 554 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms will become numerous late this evening and overnight. Heavy rain will be the primary concern, though a few storms may also be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Daily storm chances are expected much of next week. Some severe weather will be possible, especially early and mid next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
720 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
TXZ141>143-156-050100-
Comanche TX-Mills TX-Lampasas TX-Hamilton TX-
720 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Hamilton,
northwestern Lampasas, Mills and southern Comanche Counties through
800 PM CDT...
At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Camp Bowie to 14 miles southwest of Evant.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Goldthwaite and Mullin around 725 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Shive, Moline,
Bozar, Priddy, Whiteway, Aleman, Indian Gap, Newburg, Center City,
and Energy.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3161 9878 3169 9876 3170 9867 3184 9876
3196 9867 3162 9788 3147 9818 3139 9813
3127 9837 3154 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 217DEG 29KT 3161 9889 3128 9825
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
30The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:21 UTC.
14 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Pecan Bayou at Mullin rose 13 feet between 820 and 920 PM CDT.
BNSF Railroad reported on their radio frequency that there was a track washout in the Goldthwaite area.
A public report indicated a flooded home with several inches of water in the yard in Rising Star, TX.
Fire and rescue reported that TX36 was flooded and impassable at CR 414 and 412 with water rescues occurring SE of Hamilton. Flooded underpasses were also reported in Evant at US281 and US84 resulting in vehicle entrapment. Water over the bridge at CR182 was reported as well.
A trained spotter reported flooded and impassable low water crossings near and north of Keene.
Emergency management reported numerous roads were washed out in western Bosque County. Water rescue teams unable to access an emergency scene due to high water.
Cowhouse Creek at Pidcoke rose 10 feet in 40 minutes between 140 AM and 220 AM.
A vehicle occupied by two adults and one 5 year old boy was stranded in swift water off of CR 528. A witness saw the occupants get out of the vehicle and attempt to get to dry ground on foot when all are swept into the flood waters. Responders arrived and began searching for the victims. The adults were found and rescued around 5am and transported to the hospital. The 5 year old victim was found deceased in the water around 7:20am.
Dozens of flooded and damaged roads were reported across the county, as well as 10 flooded homes, and 17 water rescues conducted by the local fire department and TX Task Force One.
Nearly two dozen roads were reported flooded across the city of Dallas.
Law enforcement reported that Trophy Club Bridge had to be closed due to flood waters, and nearby residents were notified about the flooded roads and approaching floodwaters.
A trained spotter reported a water rescue on FM 660 just north of Ennis.
Emergency management reported multiple closed roads due to high water near and west of I-35 in Waco, TX.
A trained spotter reported a vehicle water rescue at the intersection of Shawnee Road and Bells Chapel Road, just south of Red Oak, TX.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, Johnson | 2024-05-05 | 5 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1180165, 1188725, 1180166, 1180645, 1180169, 1180479, 1180480, 1180481, 1180482, 1188693, 1180638, 1180639, 1180640, 1180641, 1180642.