Excessive Heat and Heat in Texas, May 26 to 30, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1256 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat illness risk continues through the Monday.

Mid level ridging remains in place for a couple more days before
we can look forward to some changes in the pattern (see long term
discussion). But until then, we're hold onto the hot and humid
conditions we've seen for the past several days. Heat advisory and
excessive heat warning conditions are expected once again with
heat index values toping 110 for much of the area and 15 for west
and southern areas. We'll see a dry line impinge on the Rio Grande
Plains, but despite a wind shift to the north, dewpoints will not
decrease enough to put much of a dent in the heat indices. High
temperatures will approach 110 west today and will be above 100
for much of South Texas. We will once again approach and quite
possibly break some high temperature records (109 LRD, 97 CRP, 98
VCT). Similar temperatures/heat indices are expected Monday and
heat products will likely need to be extended into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Pattern change beginning Monday night with daily low (15-25%)
chances of rain

Quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected to dominate the long term. A
series of shortwaves will traverse the region throughout the long
term bringing rain chances back into play. The most significant
shortwave appears to be Monday night as a couple of models led by
the GFS are showing an MCS developing over the Hill Country and
moving southward into South Texas. If that MCS does develop and
overcomes the anticipated stout cap, periods of moderate to heavy
rain could be possible over the Brush Country as PWAT values are
expected to range from 1.80-2.20" which ranks in the top 10 percent
of climatology. Due to the uncertainty, went conservative with a low
(20%) chances for thunderstorms Monday night. Also noteworthy,
conditions will be conducive for severe thunderstorms Monday evening
into Monday night across the Victoria Crossroads. Therefore, SPC has
highlighted the portions of the Victoria Crossroads under a Marginal
Risk (level 1 or 5) of severe thunderstorms. With the series of
shortwaves and ample moisture that is expected to be available, went
with low (15-25"%) chances each evening throughout the long term.

With the absence of the upper-level ridge and quasi-zonal flow aloft
taking over combined with the low end rain chances and increase in
cloud cover, daytime highs are expected to come down from the absurd
levels they have been at lately which will in turn keep our heat
indices generally under 112 degrees. Despite the more normal
temperatures and reduced heat indices, there is still a medium to
high chance for a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts
with a low to medium chance of an extreme risk across the Coastal
Plains and northern Brush Country due to the anticipated poor
overnight recoveries.

As we continue with these elevated risk of heat-related impacts,
please be sure to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose
and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and
heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it.
Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them
inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally,
check local media and government websites for cooling center
locations and hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

MVFR ceilings linger ahead of a dryline stretching over the Rio
Grande Plains, impacting COT/LRD but breaks in the deck are
becoming more apparent as heating continues. VFR ceilings and
MVFR vsby reductions caused by haze prevail elsewhere.
Southeasterly winds around 12 knots with gusts 20-25 knots over
the Coastal Plains will develop this afternoon in wake of the sea
breeze. Winds will weaken tonight as a repeat of MVFR ceilings
blanket across South Texas from 02-16Z. VFR ceilings are expected
to prevail across all sites by the end of the TAF period around
18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Moderate onshore flow will continue today through the open waters
with exercise caution conditions. Winds weaken back to weak to
moderate levels tonight and Monday. Weak to occasionally
moderate onshore flow Monday night through Tuesday evening will
strengthen to moderate to strong Wednesday and persist through the
end of the work week. There will be a low (10- 20%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms each evening, mainly across the Gulf

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  80  96  79 /  10   0   0  10
Victoria          96  79  98  77 /  10   0   0  20
Laredo           110  82 108  80 /   0   0  10  20
Alice            104  79 101  77 /  10   0  10  10
Rockport          92  81  94  80 /  10   0   0  10
Cotulla          108  80 106  79 /   0   0  10  20
Kingsville       102  80  99  77 /  10   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       91  82  91  82 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229-
     230-239>243.

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ231>234-
     244>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...EMF/94