A pair of shortwave troughs generated two rounds of thunderstorms; one on May 11 and the other on May 12. Most storms occurred on Sunday as the second and stronger disturbance moved overhead.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A pair of shortwave troughs generated two rounds of thunderstorms; one on May 11 and the other on May 12. Most storms occurred on Sunday as the second and stronger disturbance moved overhead. Some storms became severe producing hail up to golf ball sized, but flash flooding became the main impact with the later round of storms on May 12th, especially in Central Texas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 1:03 PM CST, 3 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 203 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New Long Term, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: After some brief morning convection we will be in a bit of a lull until late this afternoon when some scattered showers and a few storms are expected. Our confidence is high that widespread rain and thunderstorms will develop on Sunday which will likely result in some flooding concerns. We will issue a Flood Watch for locations generally south of I-20. The watch will include Dallas County but not Tarrant. However, adjustments to the watch may be necessary with later forecasts. The Flood Watch valid time will be from 7 AM Sunday until 1 PM Monday. 79 Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Monday night/ The axis of a mid-level ridge will move east of the region today in response to an approaching shortwave currently rotating near the Four Corners region. Middle and upper level clouds will increase across the region as Pacific moisture is pulled into the lifting shortwave. Some light showers and isolated storms have already developed across the western zones this morning but rainfall has been light due to the layer of dry air generally below 700 mb. This sub-cloud layer will slowly moisten through the afternoon resulting in more rain reaching the ground. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible due to sufficient mid-level instability as shown in the 12Z KFWD sounding, but lightning will be the only notable hazard. The increase in cloud cover will keep afternoon highs generally in the 70s but a few spots may briefly reach 80. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the night with broad large scale ascent in place. Lift will be maximized on Sunday with the core of the shortwave moving towards the Central Plains and a warm front lifting slowly northward through the Southern Plains. Ample moisture will be in place when the lift arrives, with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches across the CWA. PWs closer to 2 inches will be common across Central Texas and this is where some rainfall amounts will exceed 2 inches. Many of these areas saw heavy rainfall and flooding this past week and it won't take much to cause more flooding problems. We are likely going to need a Flood Watch for some locations generally south of the I-20 corridor so we will be working with surrounding offices and hydrologists through the afternoon to define the watch area and issuing one with the afternoon package. The bulk of the rain will gradually shift northeast through the afternoon Sunday with the lifting warm front but additional thunderstorms are expected Sunday night through Monday along and ahead of a cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to severe with a threat for hail and gusty winds. Storm chances will end from northwest to southeast Monday night with the passage of the cold front. Extensive cloud cover and rain-cooled air will keep highs Sunday generally in the lower and middle 70s. Lingering clouds Sunday night will keep temperatures from falling substantially with mainly middle and upper 60s. Decreasing clouds behind the cold front Monday will offset weak cold air advection, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to the middle 80s. Temperatures Monday night will be cooler ranging from the middle 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Saturday/ Brief ridging aloft and weak advection of slightly cooler and drier air will result in a pleasant day on Tuesday with plenty of sun and highs in the lower and middle 80s. The ridge axis will shift to the east Tuesday night as yet another low pressure organizes across the Desert Southwest. Energy from this system will not arrive in North and Central Texas until Wednesday afternoon. The initial convection will form across West Texas on the dryline during the afternoon. This activity will move eastward through Thursday with the passing shortwave. Based on the pattern, it does appear that some strong to severe storms will be possible along with a potential for more flooding in some locations. More details about the severe weather/flooding threat will become more clear in the coming days. The passage of the shortwave will allow a cold front to move through the region Thursday night/Friday morning, bringing a temporary end to the precipitation. Right now it appears the weekend will be rain-free for forecast area with most of the precipitation staying near the cold front across the Texas Coast. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be seasonably warm overall with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. It does look like temperatures will creep into the lower 90s across some of the western counties on Saturday. 79 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1052 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ The only aviation weather concern through the evening will be isolated thunderstorms associated with an approaching shortwave. Coverage will be enough to warrant VCTS at all TAF sites by 21Z with most storms dissipating a couple of hours after sunset. Otherwise, extensive middle and upper level clouds will remain over the region through the evening. Higher storm chances will arrive Sunday morning, continuing off and on through much of the afternoon. Mid-level clouds will gradually lower through afternoon but remain above 3000 ft until closer to sunrise Sunday. Low end MVFR to IFR ceilings will accompany the rain on Sunday along with temporary reductions to visibility in the heavier showers and storms. An east to southeast wind will remain generally below 12 knots this afternoon through Sunday. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 66 73 67 85 / 30 30 100 60 20 Waco 79 66 76 69 84 / 20 40 90 50 20 Paris 80 62 73 64 82 / 5 10 80 80 30 Denton 79 62 72 65 84 / 30 30 90 60 10 McKinney 79 63 72 65 83 / 20 30 90 70 20 Dallas 81 66 73 67 85 / 30 30 90 60 20 Terrell 79 64 73 67 84 / 20 30 90 70 30 Corsicana 80 66 77 70 85 / 20 30 90 60 30 Temple 80 66 78 70 85 / 20 40 80 50 30 Mineral Wells 77 63 74 65 85 / 30 40 100 50 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 226 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121145- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 226 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and tonight. Severe storms are not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Widespread thunderstorms are forecast Sunday into Monday. A few strong storms are possible with mainly a hail threat. Also, heavy rainfall could result in some flooding, especially south of I-20. The severe weather threat will be slightly higher on Monday, with hail and damaging winds expected to be the primary hazards. A brief lull in storms will occur on Tuesday, followed by additional storm chances Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 135 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:46 UTC.
19 hail, 13 flash flood, 2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported golf ball size hail in the Goldthwaite area.
A trained spotter reported ping pong ball size hail in and around Arnett, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter to golf ball size hail just south of Gatesville.
A trained spotter reported hail up to estimated dime/penny size south of Lorena, TX.
Public reported quarter to half dollar size hail south of Lorena.
A trained spotter reported up to quarter size hail south of Lorena.
Trained spotter reported nickel hail in Lampasas.
Reported from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).
A suspected microburst caused damage along West Legends Way on Fort Cavazos. A display helicopter was turned over, large tree limbs were broken, power poles were knocked down and a few street signs were bent. At the firing range to the north, metal stands were moved and outhouses were knocked over.
Quarter sized hail was reported on the south side of Killeen.
Broadcast media reported ping pong size hail in Cedar Spring.
Penny to Quarter hail was reported by broadcast media in Harker Heights.
Hail up to golf balls was reported in Belton by a trained spotter.
Public reported half dollar hail fell around 1.4 miles ESE of Belton via mPING.
Broadcast media relayed photo of golf ball to egg size hail in Belton.
Fire and rescue reported a swath of tree damage near TX317 and Old Waco Rd including trees snapped and fencing blown down.
Broadcast media relayed a photo of 2 inch hail in south Temple.
Trained spotter reported hail up to golf ball size in Temple.
Pubic reported half dollar size hail via mPING.
Quarter sized hail was reported just south of Calvert via a social media picture.
Broadcast media shared a photo of quarter sized hail in Franklin.
A trained spotter reported multiple roadways flooded. LCR 751 in the southwest part of the county was impassable due to flood waters.
A trained spotter reported flooding on North Carpenter between Prospect and Texas Avenue as well as flooded roadways throughout Mart.
Emergency management reported that FM 80, south of Interstate 45, was closed due to flooding and remained closed one day later. Multiple CRs were also closed due to flooding during the heavy rain event.
Emergency management reported multiple county roads closed between Jewett and Marquez due to flooding.
Emergency management reported the Interstate 45 service road near mile marker 168 was closed due to floodwaters.
Multiple mPING reports of flooding in Sanger were received including water over roadways.
Emergency management reported that several water rescues were performed in Leon Co including one on FM 542 south of Oakwood.
A public report of flooding underneath the HWY 287 bridge at Business 287 was received along with additional reports of flooded roadways west of Decatur.
A trained spotter reported flooded and impassable low water crossings near Plummers Creek and LCR 456 north of Groesbeck.
A trained spotter reported a flooded low water crossing in Groesbeck at Yeagua and Railroad. Additional flooding was reported east of Groesbeck near LCR 420 and 421 where the road was impassable.
Emergency management reported flooding on the I-35 service road south of Valley View with a vehicle water rescue.
Emergency management reported heavy ponding on Hwy 121 between Trenton and Westminster with multiple accidents occurring. Additional flooding was reported on the roadway at Highway 121 and 82.
Emergency management reported flooding over the roadway on Emberson Chapel Rd southeast of Tioga.
Emergency management reported an Amazon driver stalled out due to Range Creek overflowing its banks, around the 700th block of Horseshoe Road between Tioga and Collinsville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1182671, 1182675, 1182676, 1182677, 1182678, 1182679, 1182981, 1182982, 1187971, 1182985, 1182994, 1182986, 1182988, 1182989, 1182991, 1184122, 1182992, 1182993, 1182998, 1183001, 1183002, 1184084, 1184086, 1184089, 1184090, 1184091, 1184115, 1184093, 1184102, 1184094, 1184101, 1184104, 1184106, 1184110, 1184112.