A negatively tilted short wave trough moving across the southwestern US set the stage for a cool season severe weather event in the Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms developed initially in the eastern South Plains along an advancing dryline.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A negatively tilted short wave trough moving across the southwestern US set the stage for a cool season severe weather event in the Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms developed initially in the eastern South Plains along an advancing dryline. Although temperatures were relatively cool, strong boundary layer moisture and steep mid level lapse rates led to ample instability for severe thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms produced several severe wind gusts across the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains and a swath of severe hail in and around Childress (Childress County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 2, 1:41 PM CST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 141 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 141 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 Upper troughing is continuing to push eastward from the Desert Southwest while maintaining its negative tilt. Enhanced upper diffluence ahead of the trough is evident on water vapor imagery. Lift is also evident with the current ongoing shower/thunderstorm activity across our northeastern zones along an ahead of a dryline. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected later this afternoon into the evening as upper diffluence increases over the region. Some showers/thunderstorms will be possible behind the dryline (on the Caprock), but lack of surface moisture will limit development and result in mostly virga and strong wind gusts. Dewpoints will be in the low to upper 50s ahead of the dryline and will be more than enough for convection to develop. Conditions for severe potential will be marginal at best, CAPE around 1000 J/kg and 40 knots of shear. This is enough for some storms to be strong to severe with wind gusts up to 60 mph and 1 inch diameter hail possible. Precip chances will quickly push east of the FA after midnight. The upper trough will transition to a closed low this evening. The closed low and its associated surface low is expected to be over the Texas Panhandle before noon tomorrow and will provide nearly continuous westerly winds for most of the FA (the exception being more southerly winds across our far eastern zones). Winds will also be on the breezy side, 15-30 mph with the highest winds occurring across the southwest quarter of the FA. The westerly component will keep conditions on the dry side and temps mostly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 141 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 The base of the negatively-tilted trough will begin to translate east of the CWA at the start of the forecast period, with the associated cyclone at the surface and upper-levels becoming vertically-stacked as it rotates southeastward towards eastern Texas. The 994 mb surface low will also gradually weaken as it rotates into the Rolling Plains, and with an 850 mb jet stream approaching 50 kt beneath the left edge of an intense jet streak aloft (i.e., around 140 kt at 300 mb), blustery, northwesterly winds will remain intact throughout the overnight hours across the aforementioned locales while remaining breezy elsewhere. Mid-level cloud debris should linger on the backside of the stacking system, and will eventually advect southeastward as subsidence/NVA continues to advect over the CWA heading into the daytime hours Sunday. Winds were increased by a few kt and the 20+ kt isotach was expanded across the CWA from the blended initialization due to the moderating pressure tendencies post-FROPA and the slackening geopotential height gradient as the boundary-layer mixes above 800 mb. Otherwise, winds will remain below advisory-level on Sunday afternoon while CAA offsets adiabatic warming, with winds diminishing altogether upon the cessation of vertical mixing/near sunset. High temperatures were lowered by a couple of degrees to align with the raw statistical output based on the latter thinking. Shortwave ridging will shift over the CWA heading into early next week and is expected to linger across the region as another Rex Block develops over the eastern two-thirds of the Lower 48. Such synoptic pattern to the east of the CWA will, therefore, slow the progression of the shortwave ridge; and warm, dry, and benign winds will follow on Monday as the surface anticyclone shifts eastward into central North Texas. Return flow is forecast to develop once again by Tuesday as the apex of the shortwave ridge shifts east of the region ahead of a positively-tilted trough digging into the Pacific coast. This will cause a surface trough to form across the region, and warm and breezy weather will continue area-wide heading into the latter half of the week. Most of the global NWP guidance suites indicate the broadening of the waveguide as the mean troughing pivots eastward, and this would allow for shorter-wave perturbations to rotate through the mean flow and eject over the western High Plains. However, it appears that the bulk of the moist ascent will remain displaced to the north of the CWA (as indicated in the previous prognostication). The blended, sub-mentionable PoPs have been accepted given the lower predictability in potential precipitation placement by the D6/Wednesday period and beyond. Warm and breezy conditions are forecast to follow through the end of next week irrespective if rain showers occur or not. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 Conditions have improved to VFR at all terminals, and VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of convection through the next 24 hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 20Z this afternoon and evening at all terminals. CDS will have the best chances of experiencing convection. No significant hazards are expected with this convection, but some storms could be strong and produce wind gusts up to 50 knots and hail up to one inch in diameter. A drop to MVFR CIGs and VIS will also be possible. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...51
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 139 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 TXZ021>044-031945- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 139 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the Rolling Plains and the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. A few strong to low-end severe storms cannot be ruled out. The main threats would include hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to near 60 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Sustained west winds near 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph will be possible on Saturday across the South Plains, mainly to the south and west of a Muleshoe to Levelland to Brownfield line. These strong winds may result in patchy blowing dust during the afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 58 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:19 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Aiken measured a wind gust to 58 mph.
A trained spotter reported hail up to quarter size along Texas State Highway 86 between Turkey and Estelline.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Hackberry measured severe wind gusts from 1756 CST through 1757 CST. A peak wind gust of 64 mph was measured at 1756 CST.
Local broadcast media relayed a report of a swath of hail extending from the Childress/Cottle County line into Childress. Hail ranged from quarters to as large as half dollars.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1151454, 1151457, 1151466, 1151472.