Drought in Oklahoma, August 1 to 13, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Widespread hot and humid conditions, with afternoon/early evening
heat indices >105-degrees, will continue areawide through Thursday.
A 594-dm upper ridge looks to remain centered across Texas during
the period. Additionally, a low-level thermal ridge axis, which
today will remain across the High Plains, is forecast to shift
eastward (towards the northern one-half of Oklahoma) by Thursday
afternoon. The combination of these factors will continue a period
of 'headline'-worthy heat (heat indices >105-degrees), with a Heat
Advisory through 9 PM this evening and again from 1 PM - 9 PM
Thursday.

In addition to heat, a low (20-30%) potential for thunderstorms
remains advertised tonight across northern Oklahoma. An upper trough
is currently moving across portions of the Northern Plains, with an
associated front extending from South Dakota into southwest Kansas.
With a hot/well-mixed boundary layer ahead of this feature, widely
scattered thunderstorm development is underway and expected to
continue, primarily from the central Texas Panhandle into west-
central Kansas. A few storms may approach/enter northern Oklahoma
this evening (after 6-7 PM) through early Friday morning. While
weak shear will promote disorganized storm modes (multi-cellular),
well-mixed/downdraft favored conditions will offer concern for a
few damaging wind gusts across the aforementioned area. Periods of
gusty winds may also precede approaching storms this evening.

Low chances (20-30%) for scattered showers and thunderstorms will
return by Thursday evening into early Friday morning, especially
in the vicinity of the surface front across northern Oklahoma.
Gusty winds will be possible with stronger storms, and a severe-
caliber wind gust or two cannot be ruled out.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Hot/above average temperatures will remain the main weather story
heading into the weekend/early next week. Despite (slow) passage of
a weak front across the area, triple-digit heat is expected across
the southern half of the forecast area. Additional heat headlines
are likely for portions of the area on Friday. For areas north of
Interstate 40, 'cooler' temperatures (albeit remaining in the upper-
90s) are possible behind the front from Friday-Sunday. One positive
sensible effect of the frontal passage will be a decrease in near-
surface moisture/humidity. This will likely keep concern for >105-
degree heat indices low for much of the area this weekend (though
targeted/small areas of heat headlines remain possible). By next
week, ensemble guidance shows a high-amplitude upper ridge expanding
across the western half of the CONUS, favoring a return of triple-
digit heat/heat concern for most of the area.

Limited potential for precipitation will exist across the southern
half of the forecast area on Friday evening-Saturday morning.
However, probability and predictability are too low to include
mentionable chances in explicit forecast output.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected to continue. There is a
chance that remnant showers and thunderstorms from Kansas could
affect northern Oklahoma and approach KPNC. Opted to include VCSH
at KPNC to account for this.

Otherwise, winds will veer and become gusty by mid to late
morning at most terminals. The exception is across northern
Oklahoma, where a wind shift/boundary will result in easterly
winds in the afternoon and evening (KPNC and KWWR). There is also
a chance of thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma in close proximity
to the boundary, where PROB30s were included. If the thunderstorms
impact a terminal, brief reductions in visibility and gusty winds
are possible.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78 100  77 101 /   0  10  20  10
Hobart OK         78 103  75 104 /   0  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  77 105  76 106 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           75 103  72 100 /  20  10  20  10
Ponca City OK     77 101  74 101 /  20  20  20   0
Durant OK         76 101  77 105 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
943 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-020245-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
943 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is low chance of thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma
tonight. The most intense thunderstorms may produce strong, gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Heat...
Dangerous heat and heat indices are expected to continue through
at least Friday, especially across the southern one-half of
Oklahoma and north Texas. With the potential for heat stress
continuing through early next week, be sure to follow heat safety
guidelines and limit outdoor time during the day.

.Thunderstorms...
Additional low chances for thunderstorms are forecast from
Thursday evening into early Friday morning across northern and
central Oklahoma. Severe weather chances with this activity are
currently low, though strong wind gusts will be possible.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale