Wildfire in Nevada, September 7 to 25, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1230 PM PDT Sat Sep 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Breezy winds are expected each afternoon through the middle of
  next week, with locally stronger gusts possible at times.

* Temperatures will cool slightly through early next week but
  remain above average.

* A more notable cooling is likely for mid-late next week with
  light rain showers also possible mainly north of I-80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak trough of low pressure near the northwest CA coast will
push inland into southern OR tonight. The timing of this passage
favors ridge level winds peaking overnight into Sunday morning
with gusts 45-55 mph, but is less optimal for maximizing winds at
lower elevations. Overall, wind gusts of 25-30 mph will prevail
each afternoon/early evening today and Sunday, with isolated
locations receiving gusts near 35 mph. Drier and more stable air
mass spreading across CA-NV will limit thunderstorm chances today,
with only a small 10-20% chance of brief showers well east of
US-95 in west central NV, and the southeast corner of Mono County
for the mid-late afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail
through Tuesday.

Similar breezy afternoons are expected Monday-Tuesday as a
general trough pattern continues near the west coast, although
ridge level gusts will decrease compared to tonight/Sunday AM,
mainly in the 30-40 mph range.

Summer temperatures will hang on for a few more days, although
highs will ease back slowly from the recent period of early
September warmth. By Tuesday, highs for western NV return to near
average of upper 80s, with mid-upper 70s for Sierra communities.

For those who are ready to put summer behind them, confidence is
increasing for notably cooler conditions arriving by Wednesday as
a more potent low pressure moves across the northwestern
US/northern Great Basin. This system has varied in strength and
track with the ensemble guidance, but there's now more consensus
for this system passing through Wednesday with temperatures
dropping about 5-10 degrees from Tuesday's highs, then cooling
further on Thursday (highs mainly in the upper 60s-mid 70s). Wind
gusts could ramp up a bit more on Wednesday with a shift to a more
W-NW direction, followed by lighter N-NE winds Thursday.
Precipitation chances are still more of a wild card, but currently
areas from near I-80 northward to the OR border are more favored
from Wednesday afternoon-night.

Next weekend is looking to start dry with lighter winds and some
warming to the mid 70s-lower 80s, then another trough may approach
the region later in the weekend, leading to cooler conditions with
periods of showers and increased breezes through mid-September.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon today through early
next week, with peak gusts 25-30 kt at the main terminals. Areas
of increased mountain wave turbulence are likely tonight-Sunday
AM as FL100/ridge level wind gusts increase to near 45 kt.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and Breezy Days Ahead: Several days of enhanced afternoon SW
breezes return with dry conditions through Tuesday, producing
elevated fire weather concerns but no widespread or long-duration
areas of critical conditions. Isolated sites across northeast CA,
northwest NV and the western NV Sierra Front could see lower end
criteria (gusts 30-35 mph, RH 10-15%) for 1-3 hours each day.
After the lightning strikes from yesterday's isolated thunderstorm
activity, the next couple of days will be important to watch for
potential holdover fire starts when the afternoon winds arrive.

By Wednesday, winds could edge upward as they shift to W-NW with
dry conditions hanging on for west central NV, mainly south of
US-50. Elsewhere, minimum RH values are more likely to increase
during the day, with the approaching front bringing an uptick in
moisture along with cooler conditions. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&