On the evening of May 1st, an upper-level trough was noted over the Rockies, with diffluent flow over the central Plains. At the surface, a zonal frontal boundary extended along the Kansas-Nebraska border.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.
On the evening of May 1st, an upper-level trough was noted over the Rockies, with diffluent flow over the central Plains. At the surface, a zonal frontal boundary extended along the Kansas-Nebraska border. Over the course of the night, this boundary slowly lifted north as widespread thunderstorms developed across much of the central Plains and upper Midwest. At 2 AM, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms moved into the southwestern part of the OAX CWA (County Warning Area) producing wind gusts ranging from 50 to 65 miles per hour. These storms began to weaken as they moved east of US Highway 77.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 10:44 PM CST, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1144 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms redevelop today and linger into Thursday, with potential for a few severe storms and flash flooding. The highest severe weather threat will be after midnight and into early Thursday near the Nebraska/Kansas border. - An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend and early next week with the highest chances Friday night and Monday. There will be some severe weather potential at times, but confidence on details is rather low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 After zipping into the 60s before lunch, increased cloud cover and spotty shower activity has halted the warming of surface temps this afternoon. We remain mostly in the low 60s. 20dBz radar returns pock the entire CWA this afternoon. Still plenty of dry air below 5000 feet, so mostly only traces have been reported but as they and the southern moisture transport saturate the low levels, more measurable rain will be recorded before a temporary reduction in lift and POPs by sunset. Surface analysis shows the surface low and front across central Kansas. The stationary front draped across southeast Kansas this morning is driving north as a warm front. PWAT values are climbing as well. Now close to about 0.6", expect PWAT values to double by about 2AM. CAPE values are scraping the bottom of the barrel this afternoon, but will be spiking overnight with a nose of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE poking into far southeast Nebraska as the LLJ ramps up in the eastern half of the state. Shear values are impressive with sfc winds perpendicular to those at 700 hPa. Elevated storms are a threat with hail being the primary concern overnight. With the broad forcing ahead of the shortwave and its associated WAA and broad forcing, the HRRR has been latching on to an elevated MCS that works west to east through the southern half of the area tonight. Its general shape suggests it's a wind machine, but successive HRRR runs produce wind gusts below the 60mph severe criteria. Another concern overnight is heavy rain and flooding with PWATs up to 1.5 inches and deep warm cloud layers (3000 feet of clouds warmer than 0C). This gives the system more water content and gives a boost to the coalescence of raindrops. Still, HREF probabilities for 1" rainfall rates have been nearly halved with the 12Z run, likely due to the more progressive nature of the convection forecast overnight. Have opted not to issue a flash flood watch. The OAX hydrologist is on radar duty overnight to monitor flooding potential. Precip should be mostly done by Thursday's lunch hour as dry air moves in behind the cold front. The severe weather threat for Thursday looks a bit overstated for OAX with better odds south and east of here. .FRIDAY AND BEYOND... Another shortwave sweeps through on Friday night. With a LLJ / cold front interaction, believe an overnight MCS is possible once again brining a threat of severe hail and wind. Chances are probably highest south of here. Surface high pressure builds in over the course of the weekend leading to clear skies and seasonable temperatures. It'll be a beaut! Mid-70s on Monday will represent the week's zenith. Monday eve's severe weather risk may represent the week's best chance with a negatively tilted trof sweeping through the CONUS's mid-section. Certainly there are lots of timing / location questions, but with a triple point progged to be somewhere in the area, it may be another day of damaging thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A large complex of thunderstorms currently from central and northeast NE into north-central KS will continue east and affect the terminal locations during the overnight hours. VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR with a period of IFR conditions most probable at KOFK and KLNK. Furthermore, visibilities will be reduced as the strongest storms move through. East or northeast winds of around 12 kt will switch to northwest on Thursday with the passage of a front through the area. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Mead
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 342 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-021045- Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont- Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison- Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler- Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline- Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson- 342 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast Nebraska and southeast Nebraska. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday Strong to severe storms are expected to develop tonight into Thursday morning. The greatest threats will be large hail and flash flooding due to heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Wednesday Severe weather may return to the area on Friday night and again on Monday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Storm reports, flooding reports, and rainfall totals are appreciated.
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:12 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A 62 mph wind gust was measured at a personal weather station. There was another 55 mph wind gust measured at a separate but nearly collocated station at the same time.
A 58 mph wind gust was measured by a personal weather station.
A 60 mph wind gust was measured by a personal weather station.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1180483, 1180484, 1180485.