An area of strong to severe thunderstorms moved through northeast Montana on the evening of May 5th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GGW wrote it up.
An area of strong to severe thunderstorms moved through northeast Montana on the evening of May 5th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 5, 1:58 PM MST, 5 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 258 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Long duration rainfall pattern for northeast Montana from Monday through Wednesday night. Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the 24 hr period ending on 6am Tuesday. - The general probability of exceeding 1 inch, 2 inches, and 3 inches of total rainfall during this aforementioned period ranges from 60-90%, 40-70%, and 10-30%, respectively. - There is a High Wind Watch for much of the area for very strong winds Monday night through Tuesday night, leading to crosswind concerns on area roadways. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Multiple low pressure systems will move into northeast MT from the south this evening, and then again tomorrow afternoon. The surface low tonight will be associated with a band of thunderstorms that is centered over Garfield, McCone, and Prairie county according to high resolution weather models such as the HRRR, HRW FV3, and NAM NEST. There is moderate to high (50 to 60 percent) confidence of these storms producing a gust over 50 mph at the surface from 4 PM this afternoon through midnight. This surface low will weaken Monday morning, and another surface low will ride the border of SD and ND into northeast MT, which will bring an increase in winds Monday evening through Tuesday night. Therefore, a High Wind Watch is in effect from 6PM Monday through midnight Wednesday for Phillips, Valley, McCone, and Richland counties southward. Significant rainfall will accompany the surface low on Monday, and an upper level trough will help maintain this rainfall through Wednesday night. Refer to the Key Messages for rainfall amount probabilities. CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: There is high (70 percent) of the majority of the area receiving over one inch of rainfall, with moderate (50 percent) of rainfall exceeding 2 inches from Monday through Wednesday night. There is low (30 percent) confidence of a dry slot setting up between a north south line from Opheim to Jordan westward from Harlem to Lewistown based on the deterministic NAM. However the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are in agreement on significant precipitation occurring. There is high (70 percent) confidence of areas There is moderate to high (50 to 70 percent) confidence of winds gusting over 60 mph on a line from Whitewater to Wolf Point to Sidney southward Monday night through Tuesday night. -Stoinskers/GAH && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 2000Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, becoming MVFR after 12Z Monday, becoming IFR after 15Z. DISCUSSION: After 00Z, showers and thunderstorms will spread across the area lasting into the night. Then widespread rain showers will begin moving into KGDV and KSDY by 12Z, and KOLF and KGGW by 15Z. There is high (90 percent) confidence ceilings will deteriorate below 1000 ft AGL after 15Z. This is as the surface low pressure system moves into southeastern MT, which will also bring sporadic low level wind shear to KGDV between 06Z Monday and 12Z Monday as well. WIND: Southeast 20 to 28 kts with gusts to 35 kts, decreasing to 10 to 16 kts after 06Z. For KGGW and KGDV, expect a switch to northwest at 10 to 15 kts after 17Z Monday, increasing to 20 to 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts after 21Z. For KOLF, expect a switch to northwest at 10 to 15 kts after 23Z Monday, increasing to 20 to 30 kts after 03Z Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... A potent spring storm will make its way into northeast Montana late tonight and last through Wednesday night. There is high (70 percent) confidence of rainfall exceeding 1 inch area wide, with moderate (50 percent) confidence of exceeding 2 inches, and low (20 to 30 percent) confidence of exceeding 3 inches of total rainfall. Areal creeks and rivers are expected to rise later in the week for locations that receive over 2 inches of rain, so there is moderate to high confidence flood products will be necessary for low lying locations mid to late week. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Dawson-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Petroleum-Prairie- Southwest Phillips-Wibaux. && weather.gov/glasgow
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
726 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
MTZ022-023-025-026-060230-
Garfield MT-Dawson MT-Prairie MT-McCone MT-
726 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Garfield, southern McCone, Prairie and southern Dawson Counties
through 830 PM MDT
...
At 724 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles north of Miles City, moving north at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Glendive, Terry, Fallon, West Glendive, Brockway, Hillside, Flowing
Wells Rest Area, Cohagen, Lindsay, Hoyt, Zero, Van Norman, Mccloud,
Mildred, Calypso, Crow Rock, Watkins, Forest Park, Stipek, and Marsh.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4657 10545 4666 10549 4666 10558 4683 10562
4683 10583 4686 10584 4686 10712 4740 10673
4725 10440 4654 10500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 190DEG 33KT 4670 10595
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MaliawcoSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
825 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
MTZ022>026-060330-
Richland MT-Garfield MT-Dawson MT-Prairie MT-McCone MT-
825 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Garfield, McCone, northwestern Prairie, west central Richland and
western Dawson Counties through 930 PM MDT
...
At 824 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Flowing Wells Rest Area, or 29 miles west of Circle, moving north at
50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Circle, Richey, Bloomfield, Brockway, Lambert, Flowing Wells Rest
Area, Vida, Nelson Creek Rec Area, Lindsay, Rock Creek Rec Area,
Enid, Van Norman, Haxby, Weldon, and Watkins.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4692 10532 4716 10671 4761 10665 4797 10620
4781 10445
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 200DEG 42KT 4733 10621
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MaliawcoThe Glasgow radar (KGGW), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:24 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Circle Airport AWOS site (K4U6) measured a 58 mph thunderstorm wind gust.
The Cow Creek MT-13 DOT site (MTCOW) recorded a 59 mph thunderstorm wind gust.
The Fort Peck S mesonet station (MTM87) measured a 61 mph thunderstorm wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1167185, 1167187, 1167186.