Ongoing abnormally dry conditions slightly eased in southeast Minnesota through March. From initial drought issuance on June 1st, 2023 to March onset, near 15 of total liquid precipitation was more than 9 below normal in drought affected areas in far southeast Minnesota.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Ongoing abnormally dry conditions slightly eased in southeast Minnesota through March. From initial drought issuance on June 1st, 2023 to March onset, near 15 of total liquid precipitation was more than 9 below normal in drought affected areas in far southeast Minnesota. As a result, persistent extreme (D3) drought affected southeast Minnesota along the Iowa border at the onset of March. Most of the month's total liquid precipitation of 1 to 3 fell in a one week period from March 21st through March 27th. Precipitation totals that week were 2.27 in Austin (Mower County), 2.26 in Rochester (Olmsted County), 2.03 in Winona (Winona County), and 1.86 in Preston (Fillmore County). As a result, the extreme (D2) drought area retreated south but severe (D2) drought conditions persisted in these same areas along the Iowa border.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 29, 10:19 PM CST, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1019 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry through much of the weekend. Record warmth is possible on Saturday and Sunday. - Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Warm Weekend Ahead: Forecast confidence remains high for a warm, dry stretch through much of the upcoming weekend with broad upper-level ridging likely. Southerly flow will continue to advect warm air into the region through this period resulting in temperatures approaching or breaking record highs. Sunday continues to look like the warmest day with the GEFS showcasing a 30-50% chance for reaching or exceeding 70, mainly south of I-90. After today, fire weather concerns subside with enough moisture in the southerly flow to keep relative humidities greater than 30% for most. However, gusty winds are very likely to return on Sunday, especially west of the Mississippi River (60-90% chance for wind gusts over 40 mph). If relative humidity values trend lower than currently forecast on Sunday (30-50% chance), fire weather concerns would increase. Wet Start to Next Week: Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to highlight late Sunday into Monday as the next opportunity for precipitation across much of the upper midwest. A low pressure system will likely track from southwest to northeast with the center of the low currently slated to pass northeast of the forecast area. If this track holds, the local area will likely experience a range of precipitation starting as showers and storms for most Sunday into Monday with light snow possible (20% chance) for some Monday night after the passage of a cold front. While model spread is decreasing, there is still plenty of variability remaining for this upcoming system and some of the details may change over the next few days. Continue to check back for the latest information regarding precipitation chances for the first part of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1019 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period with the main aviation concerns revolving around winds. A tight pressure gradient will lead to breezy southerly winds through this TAF period. Gusty winds have largely subsided for tonight, leading to low level wind shear at both LSE/RST through daybreak. The LLWS will diminish towards 12Z as strong winds aloft subside, but winds at the surface will increase after 15Z with gusts around 25 to 30 knots through the afternoon. Gusty winds should then subside by 00Z Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Red flag conditions persist this afternoon across much of northeastern Iowa where relative humidity values have fallen into the upper teens to lower 20s and winds are gusting between 30 and 40 mph. Further to the north and east, humidity values have fallen to around 25 to 35 percent as of early this afternoon and may briefly fall to around 20 to 30 percent before sunset. A light snow pack that existed in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin at sunrise quickly melted over the course of the daytime hours and fine fuels should become supportive of fires over the afternoon as they dry out. Therefore, have continued the messaging of elevated fire weather concerns to the northeast of the Red Flag Warning through sunset. Conditions improve steadily this evening with RH values rising to around 40 percent by 9pm, though winds will be slow to subside and gusts of 20 to 25 mph may continue at higher elevations throughout the night. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Based on current forecast, daily high temperature records will be challenged at La Crosse and Rochester Friday through Sunday: Rochester MN Forecast Record/year Fri Mar 1 53 56/1992 Sat Mar 2 60 58/1964 Sun Mar 3 69 56/1946 La Crosse WI Forecast Record/year Fri Mar 1 57 62/1992 Sat Mar 2 61 65/1923 Sun Mar 3 70 66/1894 && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...KAA AVIATION...Kurz FIRE WEATHER...Skow CLIMATE...KAA
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse WI 622 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-011200- Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette- Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston- Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau- Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant- 622 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... No action needed. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... No webinar is scheduled. nofwd
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Near normal monthly liquid precipitation totals near 2 resulted in extreme (D3) drought improving to severe (D2) in far southern Fillmore County.
Slightly above normal total monthly liquid precipitation near 2 resulted in extreme (D3) drought improving to severe (D2) in far southern Mower County through March.
Near to slightly below normal monthly total liquid precipitation of 1 to 2 resulted in recession of severe (D2) drought from most of far southern Houston County through March.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1165859, 1165860, 1165861.