resulting in gusty winds across parts of northeast Lower Michigan closer to Saginaw Bay.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Southwesterly flow ahead of an upper level disturbance allowed for development of a north-south line of thunderstorms that crossed the central and southern portions of lower Michigan during the evening hours of May 20th...resulting in gusty winds across parts of northeast Lower Michigan closer to Saginaw Bay.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 20, 6:00 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated strong to marginally severe storm or two possible through this evening. - Better chance for strong to severe storms with a potential squall line Tuesday night in advance of a surface cold front. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Marginal instability/winds aloft in advance of a short wave evident on water vapor imagery over southern Illinois tonight. An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to progress across northern Michigan through the evening and the early overnight hours. Severe potential appears to be on the low side from the combination of the loss of daytime heating, limited moisture and marginal instability (just a few hundred J/kg of mixed layer cape and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-35 knots). Although not expected, can not totally rule out the possibility of an isolated severe storm or two with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats. A break in the action is then expected late tonight into much of the daylight hours of Tuesday. Can not rule out an instability driven pop up shower or storm Tuesday afternoon (mainly across northeast lower). A bigger threat for severe storms arrives Tuesday night (see long term forecast discussion below). Muggy tonight with lows in the 50s to near 60. Highs Tuesday ranging from the low and mid 70s north to the low and mid 80s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A digging trough and its associated surface low is expected to track into the Midwest resulting in an influx of deep moisture to the area. This will be enough forcing to push a warm front, located in southern Michigan, northward into the area, leading to rain showers and possible strong to severe thunderstorms for late Tuesday/ Tuesday night. As the aforementioned surface low tracks out of the region, cooler air will slowly wrap around the low and be pushed into Northern Michigan. As such, temperatures will be warmer to start off the week with daytime highs in the 70s, before more seasonable temperatures set in for later in the week. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Tuesday Night: A digging trough and its associated surface low will track into the western portion of Lake Superior. The aforementioned low will deepen and strengthen as it tracks to the Lake. Along the way, strong southerly winds will push a front north into the APX footprint and provide enough lift to support strong to severe thunderstorms for late Tuesday/ Tuesday night. A deep moisture fetch is had with this setup as southerly winds draw ample moisture in from the Gulf. One thing we will have to watch is if any potential activity downstate materializes and cuts off the deep moisture fetch, essentially hindering the chances of severe weather. With atmospheric conditions being primed for this event, another question will be if the nocturnal nature of the frontal passage will disrupt initiation along the front. As stated by the previous forecaster, the current thinking of linear mode storms (squall line / MCS) is still expected, making the main threat with this event being strong winds. However, a strong low-level jet will take full advantage of this event to help produce strong shear and opens the door for some storms capable of producing hail in stronger updrafts within the line. A quick spin-up tornado along the line as it surges northeastward into northern Michigan will also be possible and cannot be ruled out with ample shear, moisture, and instability/lift? available. SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to have a Slight Risk (2/5) across much of northern lower Michigan and Marginal Risk (1/5) elsewhere. Continue to monitor the latest forecast and be sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts to ensure you are weather aware. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Compact area of low pressure will continue to track eastward out of Wisconsin and thru Lake Michigan and Lower Michigan tonight. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact much of Northern Lower Michigan tonight as this system moves thru our area. Eastern Upper Michigan will remain along the northern periphery of deep moisture and better lift from this system. Precip chances will temporarily end late tonight into Tuesday... before better chances of convection redevelop Tuesday night. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR this evening...dropping to MVFR/IFR at times with in heavier showers/storms. Conditions will drop to MVFR later tonight...before improving to VFR on Tuesday during our break in the action. Mainly light/variable winds tonight will lend to lake breeze development on Tuesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...MLR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 325 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-211930- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 325 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. An isolated strong to severe storm or two possible through this evening. Primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, are expected across northern Michigan Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Primary hazard is damaging wind, though some large hail and an isolated tornado will also be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this evening...and again Tuesday night. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-211930- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 325 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. An isolated strong to severe storm or two possible through this evening. Primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, are expected across northern Michigan Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this evening...and again Tuesday night. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
335 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-099-202030-
Leelanau MI-Manistee MI-Grand Traverse MI-Kalkaska MI-Antrim MI-
Benzie MI-Missaukee MI-Wexford MI-Charlevoix MI-
335 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LEELANAU...EASTERN
BENZIE...WEXFORD...GRAND TRAVERSE...MANISTEE...WESTERN ANTRIM...
WESTERN KALKASKA...NORTHWESTERN MISSAUKEE AND SOUTHERN CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...
At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Maple City to Free Soil. Movement was northeast
at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Traverse City, Cadillac, East Jordan, Kalkaska, Elk Rapids, Bellaire,
Thompsonville, Bingham, Kingsley, Manton, Torch Lake, Sherman,
Central Lake, Buckley, Boon, Suttons Bay, Kaleva, Cedar, Fife Lake,
and Mesick.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4488 8591 4504 8552 4501 8555 4503 8548
4501 8543 4508 8542 4523 8505 4416 8537
4417 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 230DEG 37KT 4485 8588 4412 8620
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MLRSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
740 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
MIZ033-034-210045-
Roscommon MI-Missaukee MI-
740 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ROSCOMMON AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 845 PM EDT...
At 740 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Morey to near Evart. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Houghton Lake, Roscommon, Lake City, Prudenville, Mcbain,
Moddersville, Vogel Center, Higgins Lake, North Higgins Lake,
Roscommon Township, Lucas, Jennings, Roscommon County Airport,
Moorestown, Morey, Falmouth, South Higgins Lake, Merritt, and
Stittsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4416 8533 4451 8533 4450 8451 4416 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 212DEG 41KT 4443 8511 4389 8520
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MLRThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:21 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Adams Road closed north of M-18 due to downed power lines from the thunderstorm winds. Time estimated by radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1179150.