Warm, moist atmosphere and slow moving storms resulted in heavy rain over Manistee county, with some localized flooding as a result.
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The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Warm, moist atmosphere and slow moving storms resulted in heavy rain over Manistee county, with some localized flooding as a result.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 4, 5:43 AM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 643 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms possible today into this evening. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time. - Chances for Showers and Storms Wednesday afternoon. - Cool and wet weather will continue through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Weak ridging over the southern Great Lakes will continue to amplify today as a weak shortwave pivots across the Midwest and over western portions of the Great Lakes into tonight. The region will be situated between surface high pressure across the NE CONUS and a deepening cyclone trekking across south-central Canada underneath favorable forcing aloft provided by a much stronger wave working over the northern Great Plains. Forecast Details: Scattered thunderstorms today -- Ongoing showers may linger through the morning hours across parts of northern Michigan ahead of the main chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. A corridor of higher quality boundary layer moisture may stretch along the western half of the CWA today, providing an axis of buoyancy (~500-1,000 J/kg MLCAPE) to support thunderstorm development. As previous forecaster noted, little forcing from large scale ascent will be present to aid thunderstorms -- but current confidence is that at least a few storms will initiate across parts of northwest lower/Tip of the Mitt later this afternoon and last into this evening. Confidence decreases with southward extent from the bridge. Severe storms are not anticipated with weak wind shear in place, making organized strong storms unlikely. Primary hazards with any storms today will be lightning, heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Otherwise, a warm day is in store for much of the area as temperatures look to climb well into the 80s for most areas. Thunderstorms may limit high temperatures across areas where they do develop, but some could see localized readings reach into the upper 80s during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Stacked upper level low over Manitoba CA will reach a short wave and surface cold front south into the western Great Lakes region and the Mississippi Valley early Wednesday morning. This front and wave will rotate around the low, moving towards MI late Wednesday morning/midday. Anomalous values of moisture will be advected into the state ahead of this feature, with most mid and short range models showing PW values of at least 1.2" to even 1.5". Model soundings show that moisture through the column with a long and skinny trace amounting to around 1000 - 1500 j/kg of SB CAPE (highest instability over NE lower and eastern UP at this time). Due to this, chances for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along the front exist Wednesday afternoon as it moves across the CWA. The upper level low will gradually slip over southwest Ontario CA and Lk Superior Thursday, This will move cooler air overhead and tighten gradients aloft which could lead to breezy west winds. Chances for showers will continue Thursday afternoon as possibly another lobe of energy rotates around the low. The upper low center will pass over the CWA towards Lk Huron Friday morning, continuing clouds, cooler temps, and light rain into the end of the work week. Most global models have the upper low anchoring near Lk Huron over the weekend (even retrograding slightly on Monday), which would establish northwest flow overhead and continue clouds, cooler temperatures and light rain through early next week. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Confidence thoughts in showers and storms Wednesday afternoon - Winds aloft are weaker and unidirectional shear is more marginal, leading to less likely chances for severe attributes with storms. Models are have shown run to run consistency with moisture availability, leading to higher confidence in the most likely threats being heavy rain and lightning. Flooding doesn't look to be a concern, as showers will move from west to east. Rain amounts could reach up to an inch or more, however the likely hood of training or stalling storms is low. As far as the remaining rain in the forecast, little detail changes could result in the difference between mostly clouds and rain or getting a little more clearing in between the chances for rain. At this time, there are a lot of details in play and this can lead to more inherent uncertainty for the longer term forecast details. The main thing is that rain chances and cooler temperatures will likely stick around for a little while. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 642 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern Michigan at times through this afternoon/evening. Even with showers and storms, VFR conditions are expected for a majority of the issuance period across northern Michigan. Highest chances for any heavier showers/storms capable of reducing CIGs/VSBYs for a short time this afternoon/evening will be at PLN. MVFR to IFR CIGs look to move into MBL late in the TAF period as additional rain moves in from the west. Otherwise, south winds look to increase to around 5- 10 kts with gusts around 15 kts at times today. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...DJC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 524 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-050930- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 524 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening. A locally stronger storm with gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a chance for widespread thunderstorms on Wednesday. Severe storms are not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-050930- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 524 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening. A locally stronger storm with gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a chance for widespread thunderstorms on Wednesday. Severe storms are not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 145 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:00 UTC.
1 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Social media reports of street flooding in Manistee around 7am EST, including photo of flooded roadways at River and Maple Streets in Manistee.
Social media report with video of creek overflowing banks and ponding in ditch along M 22 along the south east side of Portage Lake south of Onekama.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1188493, 1188497.