Multiple, slow moving storms trained across portions of east central Kansas during the morning hours, resulting in the highest rainfall amounts from 4 to 6 inches. This caused flash flooding in the Emporia area.
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The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
Multiple, slow moving storms trained across portions of east central Kansas during the morning hours, resulting in the highest rainfall amounts from 4 to 6 inches. This caused flash flooding in the Emporia area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 13, 4:47 AM CST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 547 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An MCS expected to move into the area by early this morning with showers and storms through much of the morning, especially along and south of I-70. - Another round of nocturnal storms this evening and overnight may be possible focused mainly over northeastern Kansas areas. - Hot and humid during the day Wednesday ahead of the arrival of a cold front into the evening. Some areas may reach advisory levels mainly along and south of I-70. - A cold front pushes through Wednesday night giving the chance for storms to form into the evening time frame with near normal temperatures to follow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Currently, the upper air pattern across the CONUS is in transition. The mean Westerlies reside north of the area. The trough over the northeastern CONUS has begun to lift northeast which as allowed for the western CONUS ridge to broaden and move east. The apex of the mid to upper level ridge is now along the front range of the Rockies. Monsoonal moisture is still being transported into the central Rockies and around the ridge and ultimately across the central Plains. Near the surface, a considerable increase in low level moisture has taken place over the past couple of days with dewpoints around the low to mid 70s across southern portions Kansas. An inverted surface trough is in place generally from the TX panhandle region into south central and into northeastern Kansas. Storms that developed earlier during peak heating over southeastern Colorado have organized into a weak MCS and continue to advance east northeast into southwestern and west central Kansas. Early this morning, expecting the mean flow to help steer the MCS into the southern portions of the local area. Have maintained highest POPs around sunrise into mid morning over central into east central KS areas. As of this hour, storms haven't trended all that severe with warnings continuing to drop off as the eastward advancement takes place into only a marginally severe environment. A couple of notable clusters of storms continue regardless. Still expect that may be an opportunity for a marginally severe storm into early morning across the area but this chance looks low when looking at CSU machine learning probs with less than a 10-15% chance over southern areas. A stable low level layer continues to set up with DCAPE continuing to fall. Would expect heavy rain at this point to be the primary concern with morning storms as a deep moist forecast sounding profile appears to suggest little in the way of dry air. Rainfall HREF probability matched mean values still range from 2-3 inches this morning. Into tonight and Wednesday morning, an embedded shortwave amplifies as it ejects from the Rockies into northern central Plains through Nebraska. The focus for strongest ascent looks to be north of the area but isentropic ascent within the warm moist flow transport across the area may provide an opportunity for a band of heavy rain to set up over northeastern portions of Kansas into far east central areas. The high PW airmass should allow for efficient rainfall within this area, so heavy rain could again become a concern. The good thing is this is likely focused away from the area that may see the heaviest rainfall into this morning. Flash Flood guidance is still in the 2-3 inch range over northeastern KS areas. If storms tend to remain anchored in one general area and training effects set up due to any backbuilding then chances for flooding would go up quickly. However, trends in CAM guidance is suggesting storms would be focused northeast of the forecast area (confidence in these models has not been high recently, unfortunately). Given that, have kept northeastern Kansas areas into 60 percent chance range. As the wave moves through the Plains, it is forecast to deepen resulting in advection of modified cool air being pulled into the Plains. This helps push a modified cold front toward the area. Ahead of this, with dewpoints still into the 70s, should experience near advisory level heat during the day Wednesday generally along and south of I-70. With strong capping forecast to be in place, storms into late Wednesday afternoon and evening may have a hard time developing. Could see a few isolated to scattered storms that produce hail and wind into the evening hours along with heavy rain once again over portions of the area. Once this moves through, back to a northwest flow component into the weekend and generally cooler temperatures overall into the 80s at least through the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Marginal VFR conditions for much of the early morning with brief IFR conditions possible. A few thunderstorms may also briefly impact the terminals but mostly -SHRA looks on track with the main line segment from the morning MCS moving south of the area. Partial clearing may take place this afternoon before clouds build back in and possible showers and storms again late period but favored areas for storms overnight expected mainly northeast of the terminals. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 356 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-140900- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 356 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are possible this morning which may produce heavy rainfall leading to flooding mainly over areas along and south of Interstate 70. Tonight, thunderstorms may form once again causing heavy rainfall over portions of northeast into east central Kansas which may lead to flooding over some areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Near advisory level heat will be in place during the afternoon Wednesday mainly across areas along and south of Interstate 70. A cold front moves into the Wednesday evening which may cause a few isolated to scattered severe storms to form. Hazards may include hail, damaging wind and heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER MESSAGE Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging wind, tornadoes and flooding. && More detailed information can be found at: www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:01 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency services were called to six locations in Emporia to help motorists who had driven into flood waters and become stranded.
Commercial street flooded near and south of 8th avenue. Water that is several inches deep were affecting businesses.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1200185, 1200187.