On the afternoon of April 7th, convection fired along a cold front stretching along the Mississippi River. There was an isolated threat of severe weather through the evening hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
On the afternoon of April 7th, convection fired along a cold front stretching along the Mississippi River. There was an isolated threat of severe weather through the evening hours. Portions of Clinton and Marion counties were impacted by this, seeing isolated large hail, damaging winds, and an EF-1 tornado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 7, 1:33 PM CST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 233 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The threat for isolated severe thunderstorms will continue mainly over southwestern Illinois through early this evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats. - Confidence remains high (90%+) in warm and dry weather across the region for tomorrow's total solar eclipse. It still looks likely (50- 60%) that there will be at least some high clouds over our CWA during the eclipse, however confidence in the coverage and the thickness of these clouds still remains low (30%). - An active pattern will bring the potential (up to 70%) for multiple rounds of rainfall mainly across southern/southeastern portions of the area Tuesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 An upper-level low is wrapping up and closing off over the Great Plains per recent water vapor imagery. Surface observations show its associated surface low is occluding over Nebraska. Locally, our focus is on convection along the low's cold front/dry line/occlusion that is currently along the Mississippi River in northeastern Missouri/west-central Illinois extending south-southwestward into southeastern Missouri. Current SPC Mesoanalysis shows pockets of up to 250 J/kg of MLCAPE immediately ahead of the boundary and 40-60 kts of effective bulk shear. Instability thus far has been tracking lower than expected, likely due to a combination of earlier cloud cover and dew points being just a couple of degrees lower than originally expected. This has so far limited updraft strength; however, both the HRRR and the RAP have a plume of roughly 500 J/kg of MLCAPE spreading northward across southwestern Illinois ahead of the boundary later this afternoon and early evening. When paired with the aforementioned shear, this will lead to an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms capable mainly of damaging wind gusts and large hail over portions of southwestern Illinois through about 00z/7pm when convection clears the CWA to the east. A brief tornado or two can't be ruled out still, but model hodographs are more straight than curved, indicative of just enough low-level shear for a very low tornado threat. Tomorrow, the closed low will be slowly spinning northward through the Upper Midwest as the surface low follows a similar trajectory. Thanks to the cold front/dry line today, boundary layer and mid- level moisture will have been scoured from the area, leading to a dry day. Southerly to southwesterly surface winds will advect warm air into the CWA, with temperatures expected to top out in the mid to upper 70s. Some locations across southeastern Missouri within the path of totality for the solar eclipse may see afternoon highs top out around 80 degrees. While the lack of moisture in the lower portion of the atmosphere means that cumulus is very unlikely during the eclipse, southwesterly flow aloft and a deepening low over the Southern Plains produces concerns regarding cirrus streaming into the area during the late morning and afternoon. A majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a layer of saturation around 300 mb, leading to relatively high confidence that we'll see at least patchy cirrus across the area during the eclipse. However, guidance still varies on the magnitude and depth of saturation, leading to continued uncertainty in how widespread or dense the cirrus might be. Elmore && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Early Tuesday morning, a western trough will be in the process of ejecting out into the Southern Plains as a shortwave streaks through the Ohio Valley. This shortwave will combine with a low-level jet nosing into the Ohio Valley to support a broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms during the morning hours. Ensemble probabilities are around 60-70% that southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois will see rainfall with this first round of rain, with probabilities dropping off rapidly north-northwestward from there. As the low-level jet weakens during the late morning and the shortwave continues to move east-northeastward, rain chances will diminish, with guidance consensus pointing to much of the CWA will be dry through the day. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, both deterministic guidance and ensemble clusters show the western trough becoming more progressive and moving toward the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. Its surface low will follow a similar trajectory, and while ensembles have increasingly converged on a track from the Mid-South through the Ohio Valley south of the CWA, there is still enough variability in the track due to subtle differences in the phasing of the trough to make how far north rain chances stretch into the CWA uncertain. As with the early Tuesday system, ensemble-based probabilities are highest (70%) across southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois decreasing to 10-20% across northeastern Missouri during the day on Wednesday. As the surface low moves northeastward into Thursday, deterministic guidance depicts a shortwave digging southward along the backside of the trough as it departs the region. This shortwave will utilize moisture on the backside of the low to keep the chance (30-60%) for light rain going across the region through Thursday. Temperatures will have cooled starting Wednesday closer to seasonal normals thanks to the mid-week system bringing deep northerly to northwesterly flow to the region. However, temperatures will begin to creep warmer to end the week and start the weekend as an upper- level ridge builds into the Midwest per guidance consensus. Elmore && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is moving east- northeastward through eastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois currently. This convection will pass near or directly over KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS early this afternoon. The scattered nature gives lower confidence to direct impacts, so VCTS has been maintained until confidence is higher in direct impacts. If convection is to directly impact any of these three terminals, brief reductions in visibility to MVFR or possibly IFR flight conditions is expected as well as lightning. Once this convection clears these three terminals' airspace, confidence is high in dry and VFR flight conditions through the remainder of the period. Elmore && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service St Louis MO 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081945- Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL- Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL- Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO- Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO- Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO- Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO- Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO- 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The chance for thunderstorms will continue across portions of the area through this evening. A storm or two may become strong to severe across parts of Illinois. There is a threat of Elevated Fire Danger across parts of Missouri through early this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a chance of thunderstorms over parts of the area from Monday night through Thursday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of hail or wind damage to NWS St. Louis. Elmore
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 94 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:48 UTC.
3 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Large hail of up to 1.5 inches in diameter fell along US 50 in Clinton County. North of Carlyle, widespread damage to siding was reported along with one broken window. Other cities along the path of the storm include Aviston, Breese, Beckemeyer, and Huey.
A trained spotter reported trees down on Hazlet Park Road and 3 to 4 inch diameter branches down elsewhere. A food trailer was also flipped over.
Around 5:21 pm, a brief tornado touched down just southeast of the intersection of North 600th Street and Davis Road, where it destroyed a farm outbuilding, lofting debris into surrounding trees and powerlines. The tornado continued to the northeast causing minor damage to the roof of a small farm shed on Flat Creek Drive before lifting and dissipating. The tornado was rated EF-1 with a maximum estimated wind speed of 90 mph. The path length was 1.26 miles with a maximum path width of 25 yards. No deaths or injuries were reported.
A report of 1 inch hailstones follows the report of 1.5 inch hail in Clinton County. Additional locations in Marion County impacted include Sandoval, Odin, and Salem.
A large tree was uprooted and fell onto a mobile home.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Illinois, 2024Warnings in Illinois, April 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1172360, 1172368, 1172370, 1172361, 1172366, 1172369.